After an ugly round of storms moved through Houston on Thursday night and Friday morning, the region has seen some general clearing today. This is good because several waterways, including Clear Creek in the southeastern part of the metro area, crested above their banks this morning and need some time to recede. Alas, this multi-day rainfall event is not quite over.
Based upon the stability of the atmosphere, we can reasonably expect a mostly quiet evening and probably most of Friday night before storms return to the region on Saturday. There’s not a ton of agreement among the models, but generally we think most of the action will probably be between I-69 and the coast, over Brazoria, southeastern Harris, and Galveston, Chambers, and Liberty counties. (Our concern is that this is where the aforementioned Clear Creek lies). For most of this area, beginning around sunrise or a few hours later, we expect perhaps 1 to 3 inches of rain. That’s not overly concerning, but we can’t rule out a few isolated areas with 4 to 5 inches. For central and northern parts of the region, we expect lesser amounts of rainfall, with perhaps 0.5 to 2 inches of rain. The good news is that none of the forecast models are predicting some of the extreme, 3+ inches per hour rates we’ve seen earlier this week that rapidly led to street flooding.
NOAA rainfall forecast for now through Sunday. (Pivotal Weather)
We will see some thunderstorms with Saturday’s rainfall, but at this time we do not anticipate the kinds of widespread, severe thunderstorms, with hail and rampaging winds, that the region experienced Thursday night. And the storms should mostly develop after sunrise, so hopefully we can all get a good night’s sleep for a change.
Depending on which model you choose, rains should end from west to east, sometime between noon and early Saturday evening. We still expect drier air, with lower dewpoints and sunshine on Sunday, all of which should help begin to dry out the area.
Good morning. We hope everyone is safe and doing well this morning. It has been a rough 12 hours in Houston and the surrounding area. From hail to non-stop lightning to flooding, I think we have all had enough. Numerous schools are closed this morning, including Houston ISD. Total rainfall over the last 24 hours has ranged from anywhere between 1 and about 7 inches across the region. On average, most places did 2 to 5 inches or so.
24 hour rainfall totals have ranged from 1 to 7 inches, but on average have been about 2 to 5 inches. (Harris County Flood Control)
Flooding update
There are still numerous spots around the city and suburbs dealing with high water and street flooding. An areal flooding warning is in effect for almost the entire metro area through 10:30 AM.
As of 5:10 AM, there were still a number of high water locations on area freeways, and street flooding was still ongoing in parts of the area. Use caution and give yourself plenty of extra time this morning if you will be commuting. (Houston TranStar)
There were still a number of bayous that were either near bankfull or out of their banks. Most were southeast of the city, particularly along Clear Creek which is experiencing minor flooding between Pearland and Clear Lake. Spring Creek to the northwest is still rising a bit and is out of its banks at Hegar Road, as is Little Cypress Creek at Becker Road. Armand and Hunting Bayous have crested and will continue to slowly fall. Halls Bayou has as well, but that I-45 area near Mt. Houston is still a mess.
You can view the latest status of bayous and creeks at the Harris County Flood Control website. On the upper left, just check the dial for “Channel Status.”
The West Fork of the San Jacinto River will crest later near moderate flood levels, or just a bit lower than the other day. (NOAA)
It will probably crest later today around a foot lower than we saw on Tuesday.
The Brazos will experience moderate to major flooding and is going to crest later this weekend about one foot or so shy of record levels at Rosharon. It will crest sometime today or into the weekend slightly less impressively, but still in solid moderate flood at Richmond. And it is going to stay high for a good time to come.
The Brazos River will likely crest by the end of the weekend at Richmond and Rosharon in moderate to major flood. The river is going to stay high for a while beyond that. (NOAA)
The bottom line: Be cautious this morning if you are out and about as there are a number of locations still flooding. But in general, conditions should slowly improve through the day.
This morning
Alright, let’s get into the forecast.
Radar as of 5:35 shows that the majority of the rain has shifted well east of the area. We are seeing new showers develop to the west and south of Houston. This isn’t unexpected, but it may mean some additional downpours over the next few hours, particularly along and southeast of US-59 from Victoria through Houston. There has been flash flooding in Galveston
The bulk of the rain has moved east of the Houston area as of 5:35 this morning. Additional showers are still possible through mid-morning. (GRLevel3)
These showers should gradually diminish and shift off to the east through the morning. There is simply very little “energy” left in the atmosphere over us to sustain new storm development. We’re tapped out after last night. So the trend should continue to be toward a drying one this morning.
This afternoon
Other than a handful of scattered showers in parts of the area, the rest of today looks quiet. We will have a chance to dry out a bit and clean up any mess left behind.
We have seen very heavy rainfall develop along and northwest of Interstate 69 this evening. Areas near the Addicks and Barker reservoirs have been especially hard hit, some of which have received 5 inches of rain since 6-9pm. Water levels in the reservoirs are rising, but still well below flood level as of 8:45pm CT. With flood warnings issued, and street flooding occurring across much of west, northwest, and north Houston this evening, travel should cease for the night. It is time to hunker down.
As for the rest of the night, we expect this mass of rains to the northwest of I-69 to hold together until around 10pm or 11pm, after which time it should begin to sag slowly to the southeast. After this time we expect most of the action to occur more close to the coast, on the southeastern side of I-69. In addition to this sagging mass of showers, another complex of storms will move up from South Texas, likely reinforcing the already existing coastal showers.
Houston radar at 8:45pm CT shows mass of shower northwest of I-69. (kktv.com)
Given the totals we’ve seen so far, widespread totals of 4 to 8 inches seem possible for areas northwest of Houston tonight, with higher isolated totals. Elsewhere, totals are likely to be closer to 1 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated areas of 8 inches possible later tonight.
In addition to the heavy rains, we are seeing reports of hail, up to 2 inches in diameter, across much of the area. This will continue for the next couple of hours, and we may also see the potential for damaging straight-line winds later tonight. An unpleasant night, for sure.
A reader image of golf-ball sized hail in Cinco Ranch Thursday night.
Storms will eventually exit to the east, with rains likely ending across the area from 6 to 10am on Friday morning, from west to east. Then we can probably expect another wet night Friday night, although hopefully not as extreme.
Good afternoon. We just want to offer an update on the upcoming rain situation for Houston, as it continues to look like a pretty significant event will unfold tonight over the region. If you read our post this morning, we told you that later today and tonight would be the issue. So just because it’s been dry today for most of us, don’t think this event is a bust. Things are going to change quickly tonight.
Key points
Scattered strong to severe storms this afternoon with large hail a possibility.
Weather deteriorates rapidly after 7 PM this evening, and if you can stay home for the balance of the night, it is advisable.
1-4″ of rain on average tonight with some pockets seeing 4-8″ or more.
Rain may end after 2 AM or so, leading to a dry start to Friday.
More rain to come tomorrow night and Saturday.
Next few hours/severe weather
There are a handful of downpours across the region today, but thus far, nothing significant has developed. Through about 4-5 PM, we should see this kind of story continue. After 4-5 PM, weather modeling is in good agreement that more numerous storms will begin to pop up. Given that the atmosphere has had all day to destabilize (and it has done so rather considerably), any storms that form late this afternoon will be capable of large hail and strong winds. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out either.
The Storm Prediction Center is outlooking Southeast Texas for potentially significant hail this afternoon, should any storms get going. (NOAA)
Severe weather is a distinct possibility anywhere in the area this afternoon and evening, but especially south and west of Houston. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has us in a “hatched” area for hail risk now, which basically means that significantly large hail is possible.
Tonight/flooding concerns
I have looked at a lot of data today, and it seems to me that consensus favors a steady, significant escalation of rain after about 7 PM tonight. If you don’t need to be out on the roads after 7 PM, we would strongly advise you stay put. If you do have to be out, please make sure you have a safe route to get where you need to go, or stay put until conditions improve. Flash flooding is most dangerous and hardest to see at night. Storms will become more numerous and likely to setup over the heart of the Houston metro area, focusing along or north of I-10 initially, and then drifting slowly south as the night progresses.
The HRRR model depiction of total rainfall tonight implies 1-4″ on average, with “lollipop” totals of 4-8″ or even more in isolated locations. This is just one possible outcome, and should not be taken to be gospel. (Weather Bell)
Rainfall rates of 1 to 4 inches in an hour will be possible anywhere in the Houston area tonight and with storms likely to track repeatedly over certain areas, street flooding is likely in parts of the city and suburbs and bayou or additional river flooding is a very good possibility as well.
The image above shows the HRRR model’s forecast of total rainfall between now and 7 AM Friday. Don’t focus specifically on what it shows for your area, but rather just note the big picture idea it shows for the region: A widespread 1 to 4 inch rain, but “lollipop” totals that are much higher. Those are the areas we are especially concerned with for something worse than just street flooding, and those could be the ones that see as much as 4 to 8 inches or even more. So that is why we are very concerned about tonight. As I said this morning, it will not flood everywhere, but it could flood anywhere in the region. We will know more about which areas those could be later this evening.
A strong boundary or front could cross through the region after about 12-2 AM or so, which should kick most of the rain off to the east, allowing most of us to dry out a bit toward morning, but at that point the damage will have been done.
Beyond tonight, we should still see at least some scattered storms tomorrow, but the focus may be south of Houston. Look for another wave to lift heavy rain and storms through the Houston area tomorrow night and Saturday, with more flooding a possibility. We will worry about that tomorrow. We will have more later this evening, as the rains unfold.
