Month: March 2020

Space City Weather is, and always will be, a weather site. We have no pretensions beyond providing the most reliable forecasts we can, and to help greater Houston residents make decisions about what is best for themselves and their families in times of inclement weather. With that said, we have received numerous questions about the coronavirus, and requests for a site similar to Space City Weather to provide health information for this epidemic. Alas, neither Matt nor I are biologists, physicians, epidemiologists, or even medical journalists, so we are not going to do that. However, in this post, I want to provide some general thoughts about this issue from the perspective of someone well versed in crises (i.e. hurricanes) and public reactions.

We are taking this serious, and so should you.

Social Distancing—the time is now

This is probably the best proven tool we have at this time to fight the coronavirus—and the only one you can take personal control of. This is why schools are canceled, and likely will be for awhile. This is why sports have been suspended, and the rodeo canceled. These are absolutely the right decisions, and the earlier they are enacted, the better it will be for our ability to control the spread of the coronavirus, and give our health care system the time and resources to help those who fall severely ill.

Important to remember that #Covid-19 epidemic control measures may only delay cases, not prevent. However, this helps limit surge and gives hospitals time to prepare and manage. It’s the difference between finding an ICU bed & ventilator or being treated in the parking lot tent. pic.twitter.com/VOyfBcLMus

— Drew A. Harris, DPM, MPH (@drewaharris) February 28, 2020

But we need to go further than canceling mass gatherings. Practicing social distancing in your own life means staying home as much as possible, and maintaining a gap of six feet or more between yourself and others outside the home. Fewer interactions and added distance when you must go into public spaces lowers the chance of exposure. Moreover, if you do get infected, social distancing lowers the chance of spreading the virus.

Practically, this means you should not go to bars or restaurants if possible—take-out or cooking at home are better options. Church services should be temporarily moved online. None of this is popular or economical palatable, but the more of this we do, the more we slow the spread of coronavirus. (If you want to support a favorite business, buy a gift certificate to use for later). A combination of social distancing and aggressive testing by South Korea has provided a model for how democracies can control this disease. We must emulate this, or face drastic consequences.

Hoarding

Every time a significant tropical event threatens Houston, we see runs on the grocery stores—bottled water being the highest priority item. With coronavirus, toilet paper has emerged as the highest priority item. It is not clear why this is, but for goodness sake there is no toilet paper shortage in the United States and panic buying and hoarding only increases the anxieties of everyone else. If you’re buying cases of toilet paper when you already have an adequate supply, you are—I have vowed never to curse on this web site as children read it, so I won’t here—a scoundrel, dastard, villain and worse. Do not do this.

The coronavirus outbreak will be vastly different than a hurricane. And while we do not know what to expect, it is clear that we are not going to see the kinds of natural barriers (like wind and flooding) that will prevent trucks from driving, and grocery stores from remaining open.

Be good neighbors

As is the case during a hurricane, check on neighbors (while practicing social distancing!) If they need help, help them with supplies. Basically, look out for more than yourself.

The fact is, with this virus and disease, we are all in this together. The virus spread quickly from China, to the rest of Asia and Europe, and it is now circulating widely in the United States because we have a global culture. We humans travel everywhere. And we are all in this together. It is not us versus them, or one political party versus another. We are all humans, sharing the same world, with a limited set of resources, facing this. We are better together.

Appreciation

During severe weather, countless people in this region express their appreciation for our efforts. So in this time of need, let Matt and I do the same for everyone who is working to keep the region going—that means those people who are stocking grocery shelves, driving delivery trucks, working in pharmacies, preparing take-out meals in restaurants, picking up the trash, keeping the lights turned on, farmers, and more. The list of those providing essential services goes on, and on. Thank you. And then there are the health care providers and first responders, preparing for disaster, facing the uncertainty, and putting themselves directly in harm’s way. Your sacrifice and dedication are admirable. Thank you so very, very much.

More information

If you have more questions about coronavirus, this comprehensive, continually updated guide by my colleague at Ars Technica, Beth Mole, is a great place to start. She’s a microbiologist and fine writer, and seeks to take the same calm but prudent approach to this issue that we do to weather.

We’ll be back with a full forecast tomorrow morning.

We hit 84° officially at IAH yesterday, matching our warmest day of the year so far. These temperatures are more typical for early May than mid-March (and today’s morning lows around 70° are more typical for late May). So for how long will this continue? Let’s explain.

Today through Sunday

Yesterday I mentioned we were pretty much on autopilot, and we are still. For today, we’re slowly losing the fog that’s been with us most mornings this week. Still, some patchy fog at least is possible south and east of Houston. Otherwise, it’s just cloudy. Look for another day of low- to mid-80s with a mix of clouds and sun developing.

Heading into tomorrow and Sunday, we should still see some patchy morning fog or low clouds giving way to sunshine in the afternoon. We’ll see temperatures within a couple degrees of 80 away from the coast (where it will be somewhat cooler). A shower cannot be ruled out on either Saturday or Sunday, but I think the best chance of any rain will be north of Houston toward The Woodlands or Conroe or even points north from there. Just don’t be shocked if you see some raindrops for a time, especially Sunday.

Sunday night and Monday

Humidity will remain high, but things actually get interesting by late Sunday. One of our better performing models this winter in terms of cold front strength and orientation is suggesting that what we call a “backdoor” cold front is going to slide through the area later Sunday or Sunday evening.

We call it a backdoor front because it usually comes from the north and east, rather than the more common north and west. So what does it mean? Sunday should still be warm and humid, regardless. But if that front sneaks in here late PM or in the evening, we would see temperatures drop off a good 10-15 degrees Sunday night, perhaps into the 50s on Monday morning. The best chance of this occurring would be north of I-10. I don’t think this will make it all the way through the area, and even if it did, it would begin retreating back north as a warm front by Monday afternoon. Still, for those that want even a brief break from the humidity, this would be pleasant. I’d enter this one with low expectations and enjoy a pleasant surprise if you get one on Monday.

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Good morning! We will get into the weather in a moment. Just doing our public service announcement here: With the remainder of the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo being cancelled, we will obviously cease rodeo forecasts. We know how disappointing the cancellation is to so many people, us included. Local officials obviously determined that the risk is significant enough to take these precautions, and you’re definitely seeing that in many places right now. While not a meteorological event, there are so many parallels I keep finding between the information flow with COVID-19 and how we cover hurricanes or floods. Remember, as it is with weather, make sure you’re getting your information from reputable sources, and heed the advice of local officials. Harris County has a dashboard already setup that will have the latest information, both from a big picture and locally.

The only interjection we can really make is that there have been comments made by some folks that the threat will end once the weather warms up. They may be a bit overconfident. A colleague, Bob Henson, writing for Weather Underground discussed this in depth the other day, and I’d encourage you to read that article to get a better understanding of the actual science and potential scenarios of how weather may impact the progression of the virus. A lot of unknowns, a lot of weird stuff going on, and a lot of drastic measures being put in place to make an effort to flatten the curve. As we do with storms, we’ll get through it all. Eric and I will continue to provide our typical daily updates of course, though hopefully the weather doesn’t add to our woes in the weeks and months ahead.

Alright, on to the weather.

Today

Dense fog advisories are posted once again this morning along the coast and just inland, as we again have some fog in place. This is becoming “the norm” for now, and I would expect this continues to some extent off and on into next week.

Much like yesterday, the fog and clouds should slowly clear this morning, leading to probably a nice afternoon, albeit a warm one again.

Look for highs in the 80s for most folks away from the coast with continued high humidity. Our normal high temperature today is 72° at IAH Airport. More impressively, our normal low is 52°, which we aren’t even in the same area code as right now.

Friday and weekend

So the chance of rain this weekend will probably be higher than it is today and was yesterday. But it will still probably be on the low side. Most of us should remain dry, but a few of us could see a shower on Friday, Saturday, or Sunday. The highest odds are probably still north of Houston, even north of Conroe. Look for more nighttime fog at the coast and a good deal of cloud cover each day. We should see at least a little sunshine here and there but perhaps a bit less than we’ve had lately.

High temperatures will be in the 70s to low-80s and low temperatures in the 60s to perhaps even near 70 degrees. Expect southerly winds of about 5 to 15 mph.

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We got some sunshine yesterday after all, pushing temperatures up to and over 80° (several degrees above normal) in much of the area. And then the rains came for some of us. The area near Greenspoint hit the jackpot yesterday with about 2″ of rain.

While I don’t expect as much activity today, the chance of a downpour cannot be ruled out.

Today

Dense fog has developed, mainly from Houston south and east this morning, and advisories are posted. Give yourself a few extra minutes heading out the door this morning if you are commuting in those areas.

Half-mile or lower visibility is being reported along the coast and at least as far north as Hobby Airport and Southwest Houston. Like yesterday, fog should lift and dissipate through this morning, setting up a partly or even mostly sunny afternoon. Look for temperatures to surge back into the 80s again. As noted above, a shower or downpour is not likely but is possible today.

Fog is possible again tonight, especially from Houston south and east toward the coast.

Thursday and Friday

Rain chances look minimal both of the upcoming two days, and I would expect more of the same. Look for morning low clouds and/or fog to yield partly to mostly cloudy skies during the late morning and afternoon. High temperatures will range from the upper-70s to low-80s, slightly cooler at the coast, with morning lows generally in the 60s. Mostly light winds are expected.

Weekend

Rain chances look fairly low this coming weekend, so I would go forward with whatever you have planned. Low does not mean “zero,” however, and as of now, Sunday carries a better chance of showers than Saturday. The best chance will be from about Conroe northward on either day. It looks like a minor story right now, with no serious rain expected in our area, but nevertheless it is one we’ll keep watching for any changes.

Temperatures should be generally within a stone’s throw of 80 each day, with nighttime temperatures not far off 70 in a lot of spots.

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