Eric Berger

The forecast is now pretty well locked in for this week: We’ll see wet conditions today, followed by three cloudy and not too cold, not too hot days. Then on Thursday, likely during the afternoon or evening hours, temperatures are going to plunge as a very sharp front whips into the area and causes temperatures to plummet. Precautions for a hard freeze, including protecting exposed pipes, plants, pets, and people should be taken ahead of time.

Monday

A coastal low pressure system is helping to drive rain showers across the metro area this morning, and these will continue on and off throughout the day. These should be more nuisance showers than anything, as accumulations are likely to be fairly low, less than 1 inch for most areas. Otherwise, expect highs in the low 50s with mostly cloudy skies and breezy conditions out of the east at 15 to 20 mph. Rains should mostly end by sunset as the system moves off to the east. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-40s.

Tuesday

This will be a mostly cloudy day. We will start off with a very slight chance of light rain and fog, but most people should stay dry. Otherwise, expect a high in the mid-50s, with chilly northerly winds gusting up to 20 mph out of the north. Lows Tuesday night will drop into the mid-40s.

Wednesday

Another cloudy and chilly day, with highs in the mid-50s.

Thursday

Skies should start to clear out some, and for areas closer the coast where there is sunshine, we could see high temperatures jump up into the 60s, or possibly even 70 degrees. But this will be a mirage, as a strong front will be dropping down toward Houston with very strong winds, and extremely dry and cold air. This front looks set to reach the metro area some time during the afternoon or early evening hours, after which time temperatures will drop 30 to 40 degrees within a few hours.

By around sunset, or shortly afterward, I expect much of Houston to be in the 20s, with wind chills making it feel much colder. (Winds will be gusting up to 40 mph, likely). Bottom line: you will not want to be outside on Thursday night. Lows for actual temperatures by Friday morning will likely drop into the upper teens for much of Houston. The very dry air should preclude the possibility of precipitation, which is a good thing as it should keep our area roadways dry during the hard freeze.

Friday

Although skies will be sunny on Friday, temperatures should remain in the mid- to upper 20s for much of Houston, with the coast possibly seeing a brief blip above freezing. Another hard freeze is likely on Friday night, with lows dropping into the low 20s for the Houston metro area. Area roadways, and those across much of the state, should be dry for Friday and much of the holiday weekend, easing travel concerns.

Saturday

We should see more sunshine on Saturday, and this should help drive area temperatures into the upper 30s to 40 degrees. However, lows on Saturday night still could drop into the mid-20s with the Arctic air mass hanging around.

Christmas Day

After a cold start, highs on Christmas Day should warm into the mid-40s with partly to mostly sunny skies. A light freeze is possible on Sunday night.

Next week

After the hard freeze, next week looks much warmer, with highs rebounding into the 60s during the early part of the week, and back into the 70s toward the end of the week. After today, rain chances look fairly low for awhile.

A message from our partner, Reliant

We’re glad to be a longtime supporter of Space City Weather and its mission to keep us informed about
seasonal weather – without the hype. With colder weather coming just in time for the holidays, Reliant
wants to share a few easy ways to prepare for dropping temperatures, so you can stay in control of your
electricity usage while staying warm.

With some simple preparation and by following these tips, you can keep your heating system from
working harder than it needs to and avoid unexpected winter electricity bills.

• Check your thermostat. If you have an electric heater, keeping your thermostat around 68
degrees can help you save energy. For every degree above 68, you can typically expect a 3-5%
increase in heating costs.
• Weatherstrip exterior doors and windows. With minimal effort and cost, you can seal out the
cold and save up to 10 percent on total energy costs.
• Let the sun in. If the sun is shining, open blinds and shades during the day and remove any solar
screens to naturally warm your home. Close them at night to help block out the chill.
• Close heat escape routes. Keep the chimney damper closed when not in use and be mindful of
how often you’re opening entry doors and using bathroom or utility room ventilation fans, as
heat can escape through these outlets.
• Get a programmable thermostat, like the Google Nest. This can help you save up to 12 percent on
heating costs without lifting a finger.
• Get an annual heater tune-up. Make sure your air filters and furnace or heat pump are clean
and in good working order so that your system can run as efficiently as it should.
• Protect your pipes. Shut off exterior faucets, drain water from outdoor pipes and insulate them
if a hard freeze is expected (28 degrees or lower for an extended period of time) to prevent
them from bursting.

For more ways to get your home and vehicle ready for the cold and additional tips to lower your winter
electricity bill, download the Reliant Winter Prep checklist and visit Reliant.com/WinterTips. As always,
we’re available 24/7 via phone at 1-866-222-7100 and online chat to support customers. Happy
holidays!

Good afternoon, everyone. We are now only about four days from the start of a massive chill down that will plunge the Houston area into a deep freeze. The forecast has not changed substantially since Matt’s update on Saturday, but we wanted to provide you with the latest thinking we have on timing and intensity. The bottom line is that we all need to be prepared for a hard freeze, and this includes taking the following precautions:

• Pipes and plumbing: Exposed pipes and plumbing needs to be winterized to prevent damage. Sprinkler systems should be shut off and drained. If you will be leaving Houston for the holidays, you should consider turning off the main water supply in case the pipes in your home burst.
• Outdoor vegetation and plants: It will be difficult to fully protect tropical plants due to the deep nature of this freeze, but providing some cover may prevent them from being killed. Plants in pots should be brought into the home or garages.
• Pets and livestock: Because the temperatures will be so low, and for many areas will remain below freezing for longer than a full day, animals should be brought into warmer spaces or they may be killed by the cold.

We know that readers have a lot of questions about the ability of ERCOT to keep power supplied to the state given the hard freeze coming into much of Texas. This is beyond the scope of our ability to forecast, but state officials have expressed confidence in the grid, and we do not expect statewide temperatures to be nearly as cold as experienced during the Valentines Day freeze of 2021. So things will probably be OK. But we can offer no guarantees.

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday

We will continue to see high temperatures in the 50s this week, with nighttime lows generally in the 40s. The big story for the start of the week is widespread rain showers on Monday, which will probably bring 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain to much of the area. It looks like these will be primarily daytime showers, with chances ending around sunset or shortly thereafter as the disturbance pushes off to the east. After Monday, we can expect mostly cloudy skies to prevail until Thursday.

Thursday

On Seinfeld, Frank Costanza created the “holiday” of Festivus to be celebrated on December 23. Among the holiday’s activities was an “airing of grievances.” Well, on Thursday we’re going to get an airing of frigidness. Daytime highs may get into the 60s or possibly even 70 degrees near the coast on Thursday ahead of the front, which will sweep through the region rapidly from northwest to southeast. In terms of timing, I think late-afternoon is most likely for the front’s passage, but some wiggle room remains.

After the front’s passage temperatures will drop into the 30s quickly, with very strong northerly winds, perhaps gusting up to 35 or even 40 mph. While precipitation is probably not a concern, these winds will very quickly sap any heat if you are out of doors. Conditions overnight on Thursday are just going to be nasty outside. Temperatures will bottom out on Friday morning across the region. I think it is possible that even areas south of Interstate 10 briefly drop into the teens.

Friday

This will be a very cold day. It is possible that some areas reasonably close to the coast will briefly climb above freezing, but much of the metro area is going to remain in the upper 20s to 30 degrees despite sunny skies. Lows on Friday night will still be very, very cold, but should be 3 to 5 degrees above those on Thursday night.

Saturday

Christmas Eve will start out freezing, but with at least partly sunny skies daytime temperatures should reach the mid- to upper-30s for all but far inland areas. We can’t entirely rule out some light precipitation, but right now this period looks dry. This should make holiday travel across the region, and much the state, easier.

Christmas Day and beyond

After yet another freeze, Christmas Day should see highs in the 40s. It will be almost balmy!

Right now most of next week should bring a warming trend, with highs eventually climbing close to 70 degrees by Wednesday or so.

Lows this morning have generally fallen in the 40s, which is fairly typical for December. We’re going to see more or less winter-like weather for at least the next 10 days, with the possibility of a light freeze for inland areas on Sunday morning, and colder weather still later next week. It’s really time for that winter coal, y’all!

Thursday

This will be a prototypical winter day in Houston, with highs in the low 60s, sunny skies, and light winds. Skies will be clear tonight, with lows dropping into the mid- to upper-40s in Houston with cooler conditions further inland.

Friday

As high pressure moves off to the east we’ll start to see the return of some atmospheric moisture, and as a result clouds will start to build in during the morning, or early afternoon hours at the latest. Look for highs in the mid-60s. There is a slight chance of some light rain as a reinforcing cool front moves into the area on Friday evening. Otherwise expect lows in the mid-40s.

Saturday

Skies will clear out on Saturday, likely during the morning hours, in the wake of the front. This will be a clear, cold day, with highs likely topping out in the mid-50s. Clear skies and decreasing winds will allow for optimal cooling conditions on Saturday night, and some outlying areas are likely to see a light freeze. At this time I believe the Houston metro area will remain just above freezing, however.

Sunday

This will be another chilly day, with highs in the 50s most likely. Winds will revert to come from offshore pretty quickly, however, so we’ll start to see some clouds, and by Sunday evening skies should be mostly cloudy. Lows will drop into the mid-40s.

Monday

In response to increasing moisture levels and a low pressure system, we’ll see elevated rain chances on Monday. For most of the area I don’t think the rain will start until at least sunrise, and perhaps a bit later. Accumulations will probably be greater closer to the coast, where 1 to 2 inches is possible, with isolated higher totals. Skies will otherwise be cloudy, with highs likely topping out in the upper 50s.

Next week

We’re expecting conditions through the middle of next week to support high temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s, with overnight temperatures generally in the 40s. The global forecast models are still strongly suggesting that a robust front will arrive with Arctic air around Wednesday or Thursday, causing temperatures to plummet a day or two before Christmas Day. Unfortunately, at this range, we don’t have the greatest of confidence in how cold things will get. The range of possibilities is this: lows might get as cold as the upper teens or they might only drop into the mid-30s. I’d lean toward a light freeze in Houston at this time, but my confidence is not particularly high. There also is a non-trivial chance of snow—at this point I’d give the metro area perhaps a 10 or 15 percent chance of a White Christmas.

The much-anticipated cool front finally rolled into Houston during the overnight hours. If you live along the coast, hold on, as the drier air is almost there. We’re also seeing some showers this morning as the front passes. They’re now primarily along the Interstate 69/Highway 59 corridor or further south, and they should continue to move down toward the coast. The bulk of this activity will be offshore by around 10 am. And so ends the warmest 10-day period December I can remember living through in Houston.

We’re still wrestling with several questions with the forecast. One of them is how cold it will get this weekend, as I think there’s a chance some far inland areas could see their first freeze of the season on Sunday morning. We’re also tracking the potential for a couple of inches of rainfall on Monday, and of course, just how cold it is going to get in Houston just ahead of the Christmas holiday. I think a light freeze, at least, is in the cards for most of the area. Will it get colder than that? Possibly. Will it snow? I’m still ballparking about a 10 percent chance for that, but ’tis the season.

Wednesday

As showers work their way down to the coast, we’re going to see clearing skies moving into the Houston area. I expect most of us will be seeing sunshine by early this afternoon, allowing high temperatures to remain in the low- to mid-60s. Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 mph, or so. But temperatures will fall off pretty quickly this evening, as winds die down. With clear skies I think most of Houston will drop into the low- to mid-40s.

Thursday and Friday

As I’ve been writing for awhile, these two days should be splendid examples of wintertime weather in Houston. Look for mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 60s. Overnight lows drop into the low- to mid-40s. Some clouds will start to return Friday afternoon or evening as moisture starts pooling inland from the Gulf of Mexico.

Saturday and Sunday

We’re going to see a chilly weekend, with highs on both days likely in the mid- to upper-50s. Saturday looks to be partly cloudy, but we should see some clearing by Saturday night and on Sunday. Conditions are supportive of temperatures bottoming out on Sunday morning, when I could see much of the Houston metro area dropping into the upper 30s, with colder conditions further inland. Both weekend days will see a slight chance of rainfall, but at this point I’m leaning toward high pressure winning out, and keeping most shower activity offshore.

Monday

Well, kids, I’m sorry. The first official day of Winter Break looks fairly wet as high pressure scoots off and is replaced by ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. I think the area is likely to pick up 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with higher isolated totals, as the atmosphere lifts in response to an upper-level low. The air will be a tad muggier, and I expect high temperatures to reach the low 60s.

The rest of Christmas week

So what happens after Monday’s deluge? Rain chances look to back off on Monday night and Tuesday, but maybe not fade away entirely. We’ll see. The next couple of days look to be of the variety where we see partly sunny skies, with highs in the 60s, and lows in the 40s. Pencil that in for now. At some point—Thursday, the 23rd of December, maybe?—we’re likely to start seeing an influx of much colder, Arctic air. Still to be determined is how much of this colder air is modified or shunted east, and how much dives all the way down to the Gulf Coast.

We’re still talking about a forecast 8 to 10 days from now so, you know, it’s basically blindfolds and crayons at this point. But the vast majority of our model guidance suggests a light freeze for Houston, at least, with the possibility of some lows in the 20s. I don’t think extreme, power-sapping cold is in the cards, but it’s not something I’m ready to rule out. As always, the details of the forecast, including the chance of wintry precipitation, will come into clearer focus the closer we get.

But hey, you wanted it to feel like Christmas, right? Sometimes wishes do come true.