Eric Berger

Good morning. Houston will continue to face winter-like weather through the weekend and into early next week. Of note: The forecast for Saturday looks particularly gloomy, with widespread showers, breezy conditions, and highs of perhaps only 50 degrees. We are increasingly confident that conditions will warm up next week ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, but the details are rather messy.

Thursday

Temperatures are generally in the 40s this morning with leaden skies. Away from the coast, those clouds should thin out later today, leading to partly sunny skies this afternoon. Where conditions do clear, highs will push up to around 60 degrees, with light northeasterly winds. With partially clearing skies, low temperatures tonight will drop to around 40 degrees in Houston, with colder conditions inland.

Friday

We may see some more sunshine on Friday morning before clouds start to build during the late morning or afternoon hours. In the big picture, high pressure will be moving off to the east, to be replaced by an incoming cold front that will arrive later on Saturday. I expect highs to reach the mid- to upper-50s for much of the area, with a slight chance of light rain during the afternoon hours, and a slightly better chance Friday evening. Lows Friday night will drop into the mid-40s in Houston.

Saturday

If you have outdoor plans on Saturday, I am sorry. As the front pushes into the Houston area it will combine with low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico to make for a wet, windy, and cold day. Highs on Saturday may struggle to reach 50 degrees for some locations, and we’re not going to see much, if any sunshine. Winds may gust up to 20 mph from the northeast, with even more blustery conditions along the coast. Most of the area will see between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain, with the bulk of it coming during the daytime on Saturday. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the low 40s.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend looks slightly better, with only very slight rain chances. Still, expect mostly cloudy skies and highs only in the mid-50s. Winds will remain out of the northeast, albeit slightly less blowy than on Saturday.

Next week

Monday should be another cold, gray day with highs in the 50s. Some rain chances return, with perhaps of 40 percent likelihood of some light precipitation. After Monday it looks like the familiar onshore flow will finally return to the area, warming temperatures toward 70 degrees by midweek. As for Thanksgiving and beyond, it will all depend on the evolution of the next cold front and its associated storm system. There remains little clarity in the models on when that will move through, and whether it will bring any significant shower activity as far south as Houston. For now I’d lead toward a warmer, and possibly wetter Thanksgiving holiday. But that forecast remains about as firm as grandma’s Jell-O salad, which no one ever eats.

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Good morning. After Monday’s widespread showers, Houston will now see a prolonged stretch of colder than normal weather, with high temperatures not climbing out of the 50s each day until next Monday or Tuesday. It is unlikely that the metro area will experience a freeze this week, but that is not out of the question for far inland areas. Finally, we’re continuing to watch the possibility of a warm-up next week, and the potential for rainfall just before, or on Thanksgiving.

Tuesday

With a tight pressure gradient across the region in the wake of Monday’s cold front, we’ll continue to see brisk northerly winds for much of the day. These winds, and some lingering clouds, will make our “high” temperatures in the mid-50s today feel rather chilly indeed. If you’re wondering about rain chances, they’re mostly nil until this weekend. After gusting to about 25 mph today, winds should die down some this evening, with lows dropping to around 40 degrees in much of Houston. Conditions will be colder still north and west of the urban area.

Wednesday

Wednesday should bring more of the same partly to mostly cloudy skies, and highs in the mid-50s. Northerly winds will still be present, but more on the order of sustained at 10 mph, and gusts to 15 mph or so. Expect another chilly night in the low-40s in Houston.

Thursday

An upper-level system works its way toward our area on Thursday, so we can expect more clouds to help keep our highs in the mid-50s. There is a slight chance of light rain with this weather system, but mostly we’ll probably just see gray skies. After the upper-level low moves through we should see some briefly clearing skies on Thursday night into Friday morning, and this will probably give us our coldest night of the week. Parts of Houston may see the upper-30s, with a light freeze possible further inland.

Friday

Expect partly sunny conditions, with highs in the mid-50s. Lows will be a few degrees warmer on Friday night, but still dropping into the mid-40s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend forecast is still kind of a muddle, at least Saturday. There’s the potential for low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico to bring a healthy chance of rain into the Houston region on Saturday, but there’s not a whole lot of consensus in where the models ultimately bring it. For now, I’d say the Houston region has a one-in-three chance of rain, with perhaps slightly higher odds along the coast. Othewise expect mostly cloudy skies and highs in the 50s on Saturday. Sunday should see clearer skies, with low- to non-existent rain chances, and highs in the mid- to upper-50s.

Next week

Monday looks partly sunny, with continued cool weather. However by Tuesday temperatures look to be on the upswing, rising from the 60s to perhaps low- 70s by Thanksgiving. At some point next week, maybe on Thursday night or Friday, another front may swing through to cool things back down. It’s worth noting that there is a fairly strong signal in the global models for shot of rainfall in the Wednesday or Thursday period of next week ahead of said front. So I would be prepared for the potential of some rain, at some point, on Thanksgiving. Whether this ultimately comes to pass nine days from now is a big IF.

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Good morning. Houston will see a brief warm-up today, with a healthy chance of rain showers, before a front ushers in the coldest week of the year since the depths of last winter. And by cold, I mean daytime highs mostly in the 50s, which is really rather chilly for mid-November. So dress warmly.

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Monday

Temperatures this morning are starting out in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees for the Houston metro area. Highs today should reach the mid-60s, and while this may not sound all that warm, it probably will be the warmest weather our region experiences this week with another front on the way. Before this front arrives, however, moisture associated with a low pressure system offshore will help to generate a healthy chance of rain today, mostly from around 10 am to 6 pm. Rain accumulations will be greatest along the coast, where 1 to 2 inches may fall. A few of these thunderstorms may be severe. Further inland, amounts will decline to 0.25 to 0.75 inch, approximately, but almost everyone should see precipitation. The front’s arrival late this afternoon and evening will help shove the coastal low away, and bring drier air into Houston. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-40s in Houston, with cooler conditions inland.

Tuesday

Expect a partly to mostly sunny day, with northerly winds gusting to perhaps 20 or even 25 mph. Highs will be in the mid-50s. Rain chances are zero. Lows Tuesday night will drop to around 40 degrees in Houston, with colder conditions inland. Some far northern areas, such as Huntsville, may see a light freeze.

Wednesday

This day will be similar to Tuesday, albeit with a few more clouds, and perhaps slighty less wind out of the north. Normal highs for this time of year are about 70 degrees, but we’re going to be experiencing dead-of-winter conditions this week. Dress warmly!

Thursday and Friday

The cold weather train chugs on to end the work week, with highs in the mid- to upper-50s and partly to mostly sunny skies. Lows Thursday night will again drop into the 40s.

Saturday and Sunday

Conditions for this weekend remain uncertain. Days are likely to remain chilly, with highs in the 50s. But nighttime temperatures may moderate slightly as skies turn more cloudy. The overall pattern may bring another coastal low pressure system near the region, so we’re looking at the possibility of rain showers from Friday night into Saturday, with the best chances again near the coast. However, it’s too early to have much confidence in the finer details of the forecast beyond saying there’s a 40 percent chance of rain, or so.

Next week

So what does all this mean for conditions next week, and the Thanksgiving holiday on Nov. 24? Ten days is at the edge of our ability to forecast, however we can say a few things. At this point it appears another front may push into the area early next week, bringing us one more blast of colder air. The details on that are pretty fuzzy, but after this conditions should finally moderate back toward more “normal” weather for late November. By Wednesday or Thursday, therefore, the region may start to see highs in the upper 60s or lower 70s. For Thanksgiving, there is actually a decent signal in the global models for some rainfall but at 10 days out that really is a crapshoot. So my early forecast for Turkey Day calls for somewhat warmer, and possibly wetter weather. But there is a long ways to go, and a lot of turkey puns to write, before we get to a locked-in forecast.

Good morning. We’re jumping in on a Saturday morning to highlight the likelihood of very cold temperatures tonight across the metro area, and the potential for a freeze to the north.

If you’ve stepped outside you already know that it’s rather chilly. This is the result of colder and drier air working into the region during the overnight hours. With brisk northerly winds today, gusting up to 25 mph, more dry air will be moving in today. Highs will struggle to reach 60 degrees. This evening, as winds die down and with clearing skies, we’re going to see ideal conditions for cold weather.

Although I still think the urban core of Houston will remain at about 40 degrees tonight, areas north, west, and east of central Houston will drop into the 30s. Models have been trending colder with this air mass—hence this morning’s update—and we wanted people to be ready. Areas such as Katy, the Woodlands, and Kingwood will probably remain in the mid- to upper-30s tonight. However, areas further inland, including parts of Montgomery County, Brazos Valley, and the Piney Woods, may drop into the lower 30s and have a shot of seeing the region’s first freeze since mid-March.

The rest of the forecast is more or less on track, as Matt described on Friday. Sunday night won’t be nearly as cold and we’ll warm up briefly on Monday, at which point we’ll see a healthy chance of showers ahead of the next cold front. That one will keep things on the chilly side for the rest of next week. And by chilly side, I mean most days will be in the 50s, with lows perhaps around 40 degrees. In other words, inland areas will probably be looking at more freezing chances next week. We’ll have more for you on Monday.

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