Eric Berger

In my own mind I like to break summer in Houston into four phases. We can do this in Houston because “summer” season lasts so long, typically about five months. This is contrast to meteorological summer, which runs from June through August, and “solstice” summer, which runs from June 21 through September 22 this year. For me, Houston’s summer typically runs from about mid-May through mid-October. Here are the four phases:

• Early summer: When we first start to see 90-degree temperatures with regularity, but some nights in the 60s are still possible, and there’s still the thinnest hope of a weak front
• Mid summer: When highs run from 90 to 95 degrees, and nights are sultry, but you know it could still get worse
• High summer: Somewhere between late July and early September there’s a period where temperatures reach the upper 90s to low 100s and you realize, “Ok, this really is the worst.”
• Late summer: This is the period in September and early October when days grow shorter and we usually see the first front or two of the season. But most of the time it’s still hot.

This year, of course, Early Summer came about two weeks early. Here’s hoping Late Summer ends about two weeks early. But that’s not usually how things work, I’m afraid.

Tuesday

Today will be hot and sunny, with high temperatures around 90 degrees, or a touch warmer for inland areas. Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts to 20 mph. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s, only.

Wednesday and Thursday

These days will also be hot, with daytime temperatures in the low 90s. But as high pressure shifts a little bit overhead, it will essentially weaken our southerly flow. This will diminish winds and very slightly turn down the spigot of humidity. So overnight temperatures may drop into the upper 60s for inland areas on Wednesday and Thursday nights, with slightly less daytime humidity. It isn’t much, but it’s something.

Friday

Look for highs in the low 90s with mostly sunny skies.

Saturday and Sunday

We’re still looking at very modest rain chances this weekend, primarily on Saturday and Saturday night. However I’d say the chance for most of Houston is probably about 20 percent, with areas east of Interstate 45 probably reaching 30 percent. Any accumulations look slight. Otherwise look for mostly sunny and hot days, with highs in the mid-90s.

Next week’s big question

Is a pattern change coming to bring an end to this Early Summer heat wave next week?

Next week’s big answer

No.

After a hot weekend, with temperatures averaging about 10 degrees warmer than normal during early May, we’ll see a slight reprieve this week by Wednesday evening. But it will only be slight, and the latter part of this week looks to see continued hot weather. Our only foreseeable chance of rain will come next weekend, but I wouldn’t rate our chances at much higher than 30 percent right now.

Monday

To start the week we will see a continuation of conditions that prevailed over the weekend, which is to say mostly sunny weather with highs generally in the low-90s. Winds will continue to blow from the south, perhaps gusting to 20- or even 25-mph. Humidity will naturally be quite high as well. And overnight lows will not drop much below the mid-70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

This period will see more of the same weather, with highs in the low 90s, but this pattern will start to change by Wednesday afternoon or evening, as high pressure moves almost directly overhead. This will effectively put the brakes on the southerly flow, and help to bring a little bit more dry air into the region. We’re not talking anything crazy, but lows on Wednesday night should drop into the mid- to upper-60s for areas away from the coast.

Thursday and Friday

Both of these days will be hot, with highs in the low- to mid-90s. But some slightly lower dewpoints will make conditions feel a little bit less humid. Not much, mind you. But long-time residents will probably be able to detect a difference. Overnight lows should drop to around 70 degrees. Mornings and evenings will be fairly nice.

Saturday and Sunday

The outlook for the weekend calls for mostly sunny and hot weather, with highs in the low- to mid-90s. The only real question is whether a weak atmospheric disturbance will be able to provoke some showers on Saturday or Saturday night. Rain chances are probably highest to the east of Interstate 45, and even then are probably 30 percent or less. But it’s the most meaningful chance of rain we’re likely to see during at least the next 10 days, so it’s worth mentioning.

Next week

There’s not really much to suggest that our overall pattern will change much over the next 10 days, or longer. It will feel more like mid-June than mid-May, with temperatures generally in the low 90s. Summer, it seems, has decided to come early. Our luck.

Good morning. Houston will see a cold front move into the area later today and this evening. While the front won’t bring too much cooling, it will perturb the atmosphere to the point where there is now a reasonably high likelihood of seeing a line of storms move through the area. After tonight, a much warmer pattern will set in, with temperatures peaking in the mid- to upper-90s this weekend. Get your summer on, Houston.

Thursday

If your Cinco de Mayo plans include a fiesta later today, please note the potential for storms this evening. Temperatures today will rise into the upper 80s with a mix of sunshine and clouds, and we’ll see those familiar southerly winds gusting up to 20 or 25 mph. However later this afternoon and evening, a line of storms associated with the front is likely to form to the north of Houston, and push downward toward the coast. The high-resolution models have become more bullish on this line of storms holding up as it moves through Houston, with the main threats being straight-line winds and briefly heavy rainfall.

I’d guess the line of storms reaches northern Houston around 6 to 8 pm, the central part of the city at sunset, and down to the coast an hour or two later. This is probably our last chance of rain for at least a week, so I’m not going to complain, and it now looks like most of the region will see 0.5. to 1.0 inch, with higher isolated totals. The storms should pass fairly quickly, clearing your location within an hour or two of arrival. In the wake of the front, temperatures may briefly drop into the 60s tonight, especially inland of Interstate 10, with slightly drier air.

Friday

With a bit of drier air in place, temperatures on Friday should shoot up into the lower 90s, with mostly sunny skies and light southwesterly winds. Lows on Friday night will bounce back into the 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

With high pressure building over the area, the weekend forecast is straightforward: Our entire region will see hot and sunny weather. Temperatures will probably peak in the mid-90s for most locations, but some western partners of the metro area almost certainly will move into the upper 90s. There will be plenty of humidity as well, so please do take care out in the daytime heat. Overnight low temperatures won’t drop much below the upper-70s.

Next week

Most of next week looks to be nearly as hot, with partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs perhaps in the low-90s most days. Rain chances are basically nil for as far as the eye can see after today and tonight.

Good morning. Houston has a couple of more days in the upper 80s before our temperatures spike this weekend. It will feel a lot more like July in Houston than May as highs push into the mid- or possibly even upper-90s as high pressure reigns.

Wednesday

Like the last couple of days, today will bring warm and breezy conditions to the region. A few isolated showers may pop up, but for the most part we’ll simply see cloudy skies this morning before some clearing during the afternoon. With partly sunny skies, look for high temperatures to pop up into the upper 80s, with southerly winds gusting up to 20 or 25 mph. Clouds return this evening, with another warm night in the mid-70s.

Thursday

On Thursday, an upper-level low pressure system will start sliding toward our region, and this may provoke a day and night of more dynamic weather. The day will start mostly cloudy, with more southerly winds. It looks as though a line of storms will approach and move through our region during the afternoon and evening hours, although I think it will probably be weakening as it arrives. This may briefly produce some strong straight-line winds, and we can’t entirely rule out hail or a tornado. But overall, the setup does not look all that favorable for severe weather.

Rain accumulations through Thursday night will probably be fairly slight, on the order of a tenth of an inch or two, but there probably will be a few pockets of heavier rain. Highs Thursday should reach the upper 80s despite the clouds.

Friday

As skies clear out, we should see high temperatures push into the low 90s on Friday. Winds will be light, out of the south.

Saturday and Sunday

As we’ve been discussing, this weekend looks hot. Beneath the influence of high pressure, it will feel more like late July than May, with highs in the mid- or possibly even upper-90s. We may well tie or set record highs on both days. And there will be nowhere to go for relief in the state of Texas, with blazing temperatures from east to west, north to south. Overnight lows will only drop into the mid-70s.

Next week

Temperatures will moderate slightly next week, with highs falling back into the low 90s, as the overall flow turns a little more southeasterly and some clouds start to return. Rain chances are next to nil for awhile, it appears.