Eric Berger

Good morning. As it often does during the fall, Houston is riding the roller coaster, with temperatures plunging after a front moves through, bottoming out over a period of one or two nights, and then beginning to rise again. We’re now in the middle of the pattern during which we’re rising again. Temperatures will peak on Wednesday, in the low- to mid-80s, before we drop again Thursday. Make sure your seat belts are fastened!

Tuesday

There is some patchy fog across Houston this morning, but it will burn off quickly. Skies will otherwise be mostly sunny, with southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph. Highs will climb to about 80 degrees in Houston, with slightly warmer conditions west and southwest of the city, and slightly cooler right along the coast. Lows tonight will not drop too far, likely only into the upper 60s.

Wednesday

This will be another day an awful lot like Tuesday, albeit with temperatures possibly a degree or two warmer still. Fortunately, for those who would like to see some November-like weather in November, a front remains on track for Wednesday night. In terms of timing, it’s likely to reach the College Station area around midnight, push into the city a couple of hours later, and reach the coast around sunrise or shortly before hand. A broken line of light to moderate showers may accompany the front, but right now accumulations are likely to be less than a quarter of an inch for nearly all of us.

Thursday

In the front’s wake, skies should be mostly cloudy Thursday morning, although we should see some clearing during the afternoon hours. Highs will reach about 70 degrees, and northerly winds will be bringing drier air in throughout the day. Lows Thursday night should bottom out in the upper 40s in Houston, with cooler conditions inland, and warmer near the coast.

Friday

This will be a cool, but beautiful day with sunny skies and highs in the mid- to upper-60s. Lows Friday night will probably be a couple of degrees warmer than Thursday.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend should see continued mostly sunny skies, although highs will probably push back up into the mid-70s. This will be a fine day for outdoor activities. Sunday should be a few degrees warmer, and will likely see more clouds. It looks as though another front will arrive later on Sunday or Monday, and this will introduce a chance of showers later on Sunday, although the timing is to be determined.

Next week

The front should usher somewhat cooler and sunnier weather into the forecast for the early part of next week before a warming trend begins—the roller coaster, remember? I mentioned yesterday that models were hinting at the arrival of yet another front around Thanksgiving Day, and it still looks like this could be the case. All of the caveats for a long-range forecast apply here, but it still seems possible to me that we could see a wet front passage sometime on Thanksgiving Day or night.

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Good morning. This is the second week of our annual fundraiser, and you can purchase merchandise or make a donation here. Readers will often email us in the middle of summer asking if they can buy a t-shirt, but we only do this in November, when the weather is typically benign. So don’t miss out!

After a fall-like weekend our temperatures will be on the upswing to start this week before a front arrives sometime around Wednesday night. There don’t appear to be any fireworks with this front, but it should set the stage for a pleasant second half of the week. At the end of this post I’m also taking a stab at the Thanksgiving forecast—unfortunately right now it’s not one to relish. The only sure thing about the forecast for the next 10 days it that it will be stuffed with puns.

Monday

Low temperatures this morning have fallen to about 60 degrees, and with mostly sunny skies we’ll likely see highs reach about 80 degrees this afternoon, give or take. Winds will be light, out of the south, and as a result dewpoints will continue to inch upward. Overnight lows should again drop down to around 60 degrees in Houston, with warmer conditions along the coast, and moderately cooler ones inland.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These should be more fairly warm days, for November, with highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees, moderately humid air, and mostly sunny skies. Some time after midnight on Wednesday, and sunrise on Thursday, the region’s next front should arrive. This may bring some very scattered showers and thunderstorms as it passes through, but right now the overall setup does not appear to favor much rainfall. This will usher a drier and cooler air mass into the region.

Thursday

Skies will be mostly cloudy to start the day, with some sunshine probably mixing in during the afternoon hours. For inland locations, highs may not reach 70 degrees, with the immediate coast likely seeing highs in the low 70s. Winds will be moderate, out of the north at 10 to 15 mph. Thursday night should see temperatures drop to 50 degrees or just below in the city, with 40s for other inland areas, 50s closer to the water.

Friday

This will be a clear and sunny day with highs likely in the mid-60s. Expect another night with similar temperatures to Thursday night, as lows drop to around 50 degrees in Houston.

Saturday and Sunday

We should see another pleasant fall weekend—at least to start. With sunny skies, highs on Saturday should max out in the low 70s. Overnight lows will be a bit warmer than the previous two nights, likely dropping to around 60 degrees. Sunday should be warmer, perhaps in the mid- to upper-70s, with increasing clouds. Another front is slated to move through later on Sunday or Monday, and this could generate some rain showers on Sunday and Monday. The details are to be determined, both about the amount of rain, and strength of the front.

Thanksgiving week

We’ve been in a general pattern for awhile now of getting a front, seeing things cool down for a couple of days, subsequently warm up again, and then seeing another front. I think this pattern will continue, and this would put us in line for a warming trend in the middle of next week, around Wednesday, Nov. 24. The question then becomes how quickly the next cold front comes through, and right now the medium-range models are suggesting a possible frontal passage on Thanksgiving, plus or minus day. Some of the models also suggest there will be enough moisture for some decent rainfall. So my best guess is that Thanksgiving starts out fairly warm, but may cool down later with a wet frontal passage.

It’s still a long way to go, however. We still have 10 days to go before Thanksgiving. So hopefully this is a turkey of a forecast.

Good morning. A line of thunderstorms is moving through Houston this morning, heralding the passage of a cold front. These storms may bring briefly gusty winds in addition to 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rain to some areas as they cross the region from north to south. Cooler and sunny weather will follow, persisting into early next week.

Thursday

The storms will cross Houston this morning from 6 to 10 am, and afterward we should see fairly rapidly clearing skies. This will allow high temperatures to reach about 80 degrees, but the air will feel somewhat drier. Winds after the front will be out of the north at about 10 mph, with higher gusts. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-50s, with cooler conditions inland, and warmer near the coast. On this Veterans Day, please let me express our appreciation for all who have served, and do serve our country.

Friday

This will be a sunny, fine day with high temperatures in the upper 70s. A reinforcing cold front will follow on Friday afternoon (there will be no rain with this one, due to the drier air), and this will set the stage for a chillier start to the weekend as lows fall to around 50 degrees in Houston, with 40s for inland areas.

Saturday

This will be the coolest day of the forecast period, with highs likely only in the upper 60s, even with sunny skies. Winds will be moderate, out of the north at 5 to 10 mph. Saturday night will be clear and cold, with temperatures possibly dropping into the upper 40s in Houston itself and all the way to the coast.

Sunday

Another sunny day, and despite the chilly start highs should work themselves into the mid-70s. Lows Sunday night will be a few degrees warmer than Saturday night as well.

Next week

As a southeasterly flow returns, we’ll see a warming trend next week, and by Wednesday or so temperatures could pop back up above 80 degrees. For a day or two, things could get fairly warm and muggy for November, but another front is likely to move through by Thursday or Friday. Some readers have asked about a forecast for Thanksgiving, and I’d love to oblige. But we’re still 14 days away and there’s no strong signal in the models, so there’s just not much sensible to say right now.

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Good morning. Matt and I just wanted to thank everyone who generously supported the site as we kicked off our annual fundraiser Tuesday. The response so far has been tremendous. If you want to help, we’re selling plenty of Space City Weather merch, and also accepting donations. Read more about it here.

Overall our forecast remains on track. Houston will have one more somewhat warm and muggy day before a front moves into the region on Thursday morning, setting the stage for sunny, clear, and cool weather through early next week. Some storms may accompany Thursday morning’s front.

Wednesday

Skies are mostly cloudy this morning across the region, with patchy fog. Despite the lack of much sunshine, highs today are going up to about 80 degrees. Winds will be out of the south at about 10 mph, with gusts possibly up to about 20 mph. Some brief, light showers are possible today and tonight, but accumulations, if any, will be slight. Most of us will just see gray skies. Lows tonight will not drop much below 70 degrees for most of the area.

Thursday

Some forecast models are now indicating the potential for at least a broken line of showers and thunderstorms to move into Houston ahead of a cold front on Thursday morning. If you’re planning to attend a Veteran’s Day ceremony on Thursday morning shortly after sunrise, this will be something to have in the back of your mind. Generally, this system should move through the region from northwest to southeast, somewhere in the time frame of 4 am to 10 am CT. A few areas may see a quick inch or two or rain, whereas the majority of the region will probably see one quarter of inch of rain, or less.

Dewpoints will begin falling in the wake of the front, and we should see at least partly sunny skies by Thursday afternoon with highs in the 70s. Lows Thursday night will drop into the 50s. Winds will be out of the north, but we’re not expecting anything too gusty.

Friday

Expect highs in the mid-70s with lots of sunshine and drier air. A reinforcing shot of colder air will arrive Friday night, and this will set the stage for a cooler start to the weekend. Lows Friday night will probably drop to around 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions in outlying areas.

Saturday and Sunday

Despite sunny skies, highs may struggle to reach 70 degrees on Saturday, and Saturday night could bring lows in the upper 40s in Houston. Sunday will be a few degrees warmer, with more sunshine. Plan your weekend activities with confidence.

Next week

Most of next week should see highs in the mid- to upper-70s, with partly sunny skies. Another front appears likely to move through toward the end of next week, perhaps around Friday, November 19. But, my friends, our confidence in that is about as firm as tissue paper.