Eric Berger

As noted in Monday’s post, Houston’s weather is now making a pretty hard transition into something other than winter-like weather. Over the next week to 10 days we’ll see much warmer conditions—although I don’t think high temperatures will reach 80 degrees—to go along with plenty of humidity and lots of clouds. If there’s a silver lining its that, while we expect decent rain chances during the coming period, we don’t really have any indication that the region will see heavy rainfall.

Tuesday

Today’s weather will be driven by a cold front that is advancing toward Houston but will stall somewhere. But where? It now looks as though the front will reach the College Station area around sunset, and may sag toward Interstate 10 in Houston overnight and possibly reach the coast. The front will produce decent rain chances to the northwest of Houston today, but I think we’ll only see scattered to isolated showers in the metro area itself. Otherwise, we can expect highs in the low 70s today, with overnight lows depending on the progress of the front. Most areas will probably drop into the 50s.

Wednesday

With the weak front effectively stalled out over Houston, conditions on Wednesday will probably yield mostly cloudy skies, with highs somewhere in the 60s. Overnight lows on Wednesday night are unlikely to drop below 60 for much of the area as winds return from the southeast.

Thursday and Friday

The end of the work week should see highs in the 70s as Houston falls under a predominantly southerly flow, with mostly cloudy skies. Rain chances both days look decent—better for areas north of Interstate 10, likely—but again mostly we’re talking about accumulations of a few tenths of an inch of rain. A weak “backdoor” front should slide into Houston from the northeast on Friday night, bringing a brief cool down.

Saturday and Sunday

In the wake of the front, which is probable but not certain, Houston should see mostly cloudy skies and highs in the 60s on Saturday. This front should wash out pretty quickly, however, and as a result I’d anticipate rain chances returning on Sunday, along with highs in the 70s.

Next week

It looks like we’re going to have to wait until the Tuesday to Thursday time frame of next week before we see a stronger front that moves off the coast, clears our skies, and brings drier sunny weather back to Houston. That should offer us a decent reminder that it is still, in fact, January.

Overall it’s been a cold start to 2021 in Houston. Through the year’s first 17 days, the average temperature is running about 3 degrees below normal. And at the city’s official station at Bush Intercontinental Airport, since January 6, the overnight low has never been warmer than 42 degrees. Most nights have been in the 30s. But now, that’s about to change. It’s possible that much of Houston will not see lows below the 50s until near the end of January. “Winter” isn’t over, but the next stretch will definitely be warmer than normal. We’ll be trading clear and cool for cloudy and more muggy.

Monday

Houston will enjoy one more sunny day for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. But as high pressure departs the area, you may notice winds becoming more prominent from the south this afternoon. With partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon, high temperatures will likely get near 70 degrees for much of the area. However, unlike the last 10 nights or so, temperatures will not drop significantly after sunset. Rather, with the southerly flow and increasing clouds, low temperatures tonight will probably only drop to around 60 degrees for most.

Tuesday and Wednesday

The mid-week weather will be determined by the progression of a cold front that seems most likely to stall out just to the northwest of the Houston region. For areas not reached by the front, which for now I will include pretty much all of the metro region, the effect of this will be a continuance of warm days, with highs around 70 degrees, and lows in the upper 50s to 60 degrees. We should see mostly cloudy skies and rain chances somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 percent. The better rain chances will fall closer to the front, with areas like College Station possibly seeing one-half inch of rain or so by Wednesday.

Thursday and Friday

The forecast gets less certain later in the week, as the frontal boundary may move around some. For now, I’d expect more mostly cloudy days in Houston, with low- to moderate rain chances. Overall accumulations for this week should be less than one-half inch for nearly all of the region—although northern areas, think Walker County, may see a bit more. Daytime highs will be in the 70s, with generally warm nights.

Saturday and Sunday

Neither of the weekend days is a clear winner, in terms of weather. Rain chances look low for Saturday, but non-zero. Sunday may be a bit higher. Either way, expect highs around 70 degrees, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Skies will likely remain partly to mostly cloudy. A stronger front may finally push through the region next Monday or Tuesday to bring colder, clear weather back into Houston.

Good morning. Some readers reported seeing a bit of freezing precipitation on Tuesday. This was due to an upper level disturbance that moved in rapidly from the west. Because the atmosphere was very dry, it was not expected that this precipitation would make it all the way to the ground, but some of it did. What you saw, in most cases, was graupel. What the heck is graupel? It is similar to, but distinct from sleet. Here’s a graphic that shows how it forms in the atmosphere. Essentially, supercooled water droplets form on falling snowflakes in a thin layer of warmer atmosphere.

Wednesday

We’re done with the wintry mix and precipitation chances for now. After a cold start, with temperatures dropping into the 30s across much of the area except for the coast, Houston should warm nicely today. Under sunny skies, we expect highs to reach about 60 degrees. Winds will be light, out of the west to southwest. Low temperatures tonight should reach about 40 degrees in the city of Houston. For the record, I’m choosing to run the Houston virtual marathon early on Thursday morning, which may give you an idea of my preferred weather conditions for long runs. In any case, Matt will be covering things on Thursday for Space City Weather as I’ll be knackered.

Thursday

After another chilly start, this will be the warmest day of the week. Look for highs to reach the upper 60s to possibly 70 degrees for some areas, with mostly sunny skies. Just as things are warming up, a cold front will push through on Thursday evening, bringing a wind shift from the north. The atmosphere will be dry enough that we don’t envision any precipitation with the front. Lows will probably drop down to around 40 degrees.

Friday

In the wake of the front, Friday will be breezy and cool. Winds out of the north will blow at about 10 to 15 mph. Look for highs in the upper 50s to 60 degrees, with mostly sunny skies. Winds will die down during the afternoon or evening hours.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend looks splendid. The day with start out in the upper 30s to 40 degrees, and with mostly sunny skies highs should reach into the low 60s.

Sunday

On Sunday we can’t rule out the possibility of some rain showers due to some atmospheric instability. However, I think chances, on the whole, are fairly low—likely 20 percent or less. Skies otherwise should be partly sunny, with highs near 60 degrees.

Next week

For Monday—M.L.K. Day—we should see the return of mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 60s. The forecast turns a bit more sour on Tuesday and Wednesday, as it looks like several ingredients will come together to bring healthy rain chances. It’s too early to have confidence in totals, but a general expectation for now is 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rain.

Good morning! We’re getting past the coldest weather of the week this morning, but it’s not exactly going to warm up dramatically any time soon. Looking ahead for the next 10 to 14 days, much of the region may not see highs above the mid-60s as Houston goes through what is climatologically the coldest time of the year.

Tuesday

A light freeze has fallen across much of the area this morning, although the urban core of Houston appears likely to remain at or just above freezing. Yesterday was quite cold. My personal weather station recorded highs briefly reaching 45 degrees during the afternoon. Today will be slightly warmer, with partly sunny skies allowing for temperatures to reach around 50 degrees. Winds will be light, out of the north at about 5 mph. Lows tonight should be about 5 degrees warmer than Monday night.

Wednesday and Thursday

High pressure will keep conditions on the sunny side for the middle of the week. Highs on Wednesday should reach about 60 degrees, and then Thursday looks to be the warmest day of the week as highs reach into the mid- or possibly upper-60s. Meanwhile, nights should see temperatures drop to around 40 degrees.

Friday and Saturday

A reinforcing front will arrive Thursday night. Since our atmosphere will be sufficiently dry, we likely won’t see any rain with this front. However, it will keep things on the cooler side, driving high temperatures back to around 60 degrees, with sunny skies on both Friday and Saturday.

Sunday and beyond

Sunday morning will start out cold, likely in the low 40s. But after this the models begin to diverge in how they handle an upper-level feature in the atmosphere that could potentially spark some rainfall. We have a couple of unanswered questions at this point: How close will this trough get to Houston, and how moist will the atmosphere be by Sunday? The bottom line is that after several sunny days, we could see the return of some clouds Sunday, and possibly some light rain showers later in the day.

By Monday, M.L.K. Day, we hope to see mostly sunny skies. However, next Tuesday and Wednesday may also generate some scattered to widespread showers across the region. The bottom line is that we’re pretty confident in the forecast through this Saturday, and the after that the picture becomes a bit more fuzzy.