Eric Berger

The cold front that has been driving all of the precipitation finally pushed through the Houston area during the overnight hours, and so we’re generally seeing low temperatures in the 50s this morning—with 40s to the west and far north of Houston. The front lies just offshore, so this cold weather won’t last as the warmer air pushes back onshore.

Thursday

High temperatures today will be in the 70s under cloudy skies. Rain chances remain, but we’re not going to see the prolonged, heavier showers the region experienced on Wednesday. About half of the area probably won’t see any rain at all today, especially along the coast. Lows tonight will be warmer, as the onshore flow resumes.

Friday and Saturday

Friday and Saturday will be warmer and muggier under mostly cloudy skies, as Houston falls back into a pattern we’ve experienced a lot of this month. Expect highs in the upper 70s, with southerly winds, and warm nighttime temperatures in the 60s. Rain chances will be lower on Friday, and a bit higher on Saturday as moisture levels ramp back up and a cold front approaches and moves through the area during the evening or overnight hours.

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A round of thunderstorms moved through Houston during the overnight hours, dropping as much as 2 inches of rainfall for some areas pretty quickly, but now the Houston region is seeing a break that should hold through at least sunrise and probably the morning commute.

Wednesday

The cold front that’s helping to drive these showers (along with some kinks in the atmosphere moving northward into the region) isn’t going away, so there’s the potential for redevelopment of heavy rain later this morning and throughout the day. To that end, the National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch through 3pm this afternoon for most of the region, excepting the coast.

With that said, I don’t things will get too bad today, and probably at most we are looking at the potential for some short-lived street flooding during heavier downpours. Bottom line—check the radar before heading out for any trips beyond the local grocery store. The front should eventually make its way through most of Houston, leading to a somewhat cooler night in the 50s for most of the area except for probably along the coast.

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Conditions favorable for heavy rainfall will set up over Texas beginning later today, but for now we continue to think that the hardest hit areas will be north of Houston over the next two days. Regardless, we’ll be watching the system closely because of its potential for mischief.

Tuesday

After a warm morning, conditions will remain muggy throughout the day, with highs in the upper 70s and mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be gusty out of the south, and we may see some scattered rain showers this afternoon—but nothing to get too concerned about. We’ll have to wait until the overnight hours for heavier stuff.

Tuesday night, Wednesday, and Wednesday night

The combination of a very slow moving cold front (moving in from the northwest), very moist air, and a series of atmospheric disturbances moving north from Mexico will create conditions for bands of very heavy rainfall across Texas. As the map below from NOAA shows, the best chance for heavy rainfall appears to be north of the Houston metro area.

As always, with these forecasts, they are a guide about general conditions rather than an exact prediction. Given the atmospheric conditions, we definitely will have the potential for heavy rainfall in Houston, too.

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Houston had three consecutive days of 80-degree temperatures at the end of last week—the first time that has happened since mid-November. These warmer temperatures, generally in the upper 70s to 80 degrees are going to hang around this week, too. The other big story will be rainfall, with a couple of inches likely this week as moisture levels surge upward.

Monday

Today should be pretty nice, all things considered, and may be the best day of the week. We should see partly sunny skies, with only a slight chance of rain as high temperatures rise to about 80 degrees. The only concern is building southerly winds, which could make for a fairly gusty afternoon. These winds, and the moisture they bring, will be a harbinger for the rest of the week.

Tuesday and Wednesday

The primary dynamic beginning Tuesday will be increasing rain chances as a series of disturbances move into Texas from Mexico at the same time a slowly moving cold front moves toward the area and stalls. For now it appears the best rain chances will be north and northeast of Houston (certainly some flooding is possible for the areas facing 6 inches or more in the map below).

Rain chances appear to be highest from Tuesday night through Wednesday night, and I’d expect most of the Houston region to receive 1.5 to 2.5 inches, with higher amounts where heavy storms establish themselves. We’ll have to watch for the potential of street flooding. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s with warm nights.

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