Matt Lanza

Barry approaching landfall on the Louisiana coast

Tropical Storm Barry is flirting with hurricane intensity this morning south of Morgan City, LA. Maximum sustained winds are 70 mph, and it’s possible Barry could cross the finish line as a hurricane. Landfall is expected somewhere on the west side of Vermilion Bay, LA this afternoon.

Barry still has most of its moisture and storms south and east of the center, but its visual presentation belies its true intensity. (College of DuPage)

Moving forward, Barry will slowly move inland over Louisiana, and all those bright clouds that indicate thunderstorms are going to come ashore in Louisiana. It’s been mostly nuisance rain there so far, but it will escalate significant later today or tonight. Storm surge flooding is an ongoing issue across much of eastern Louisiana.

We will continue to see these problems through the day, and then the rainfall will begin to cause problems tonight.

How much rain?

Total rainfall is expected to be highest between Lafayette and New Orleans, potentially focused on the Baton Rouge area. (NWS WPC via Weather Bell)

Well, according to the NWS Weather Prediction Center, most of eastern Louisiana should see four inches or more of rainfall, with the bullseye between Lafayette and New Orleans of 10 to 15 inches. This bullseye may end up near the Baton Rouge area.

This serves as a nice breakpoint for us to shift gears and talk about Texas. That official forecast shows 1 to 2 inches through Monday afternoon between Galveston and Beaumont, with lesser amounts north and west of there. Let’s break things down a bit.

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Barry looking healthier, forecast virtually unchanged

If you’re a more weather savvy Houstonian, you’ve spent a chunk of the day with a satellite loop of Tropical Storm Barry open in a browser tab, checking it periodically and perhaps feeling a bit uneasy. And that’s completely understandable. The good news is this: Despite what your eyes are telling you, everything, forecast-wise, is still on track, and Barry is expected to move into Louisiana tonight and tomorrow.

Here’s what I’m talking about:

You thought that little swirl was the center about to make landfall? Nope. It’s a small part of the larger, broader center to the south that is slowly moving west and will turn northwest tonight. (College of DuPage)

From the above satellite image, you can see the adorable cinnamon bun-esque swirl south of the Louisiana coast today that now appears to be moving back southwest. Believe it or not, that is not center of Tropical Storm Barry. That is what we call a “mesovortex” swirling around the broader center that is to the south and will gradually turn to the northwest tonight. As Barry organizes a little bit healthier tonight, you’ll probably begin to see a slightly more traditional satellite presentation try to evolve. Wind shear will continue to limit how well organized Barry can become, but it would seem likelier than not that Barry becomes a hurricane tonight before making landfall tomorrow near Vermilion Bay. The turn will happen, we just need to be patient.

Impacts are mostly unchanged, with major rains expected to slog inland tonight and tomorrow over Louisiana and Mississippi. Heavy rain is likely between Lafayette and New Orleans, though the more recent rainfall forecast have backed down a bit in NOLA, which is good there, but a lot of rain is going to fall upstream over the Mississippi. Maximum totals should be 15 to 20 inches, probably not far from Baton Rouge.

The heaviest rainfall now looks to be west of New Orleans but still across eastern or central Louisiana. (NWS via Weather Bell)

This morning I discussed the possibility of heavier rain potentially near Galveston or the Bay Area. Basically, we expect some type of inflow band, or an area of converging winds to setup near the coast tomorrow night and much of Sunday. If that happens, locally heavy rain will be possible, particularly along the immediate coast. The rainfall forecast above shows about 1 to 2 inches potentially near Galveston, with less as you come inland. We will have to refine this tomorrow a bit, just in case the heavier rains stay offshore or to our east, or alternatively look heavier over Galveston. For now, in Galveston, expect a forecast of persistent rains on Saturday night and Sunday with occasional showers or clouds inland from there. Saturday is probably a satisfactory beach day, but Sunday may be a loss. We will reassess how things look in the morning and offer you another update then.

Barry stays east but rains could impact coastal Texas this weekend

The forecast today will be one of heat, followed by a somewhat uncertain outlook this weekend. Let’s walk through things, and then we will touch on Louisiana and Barry.

Today

The expectation right now is that today will be a mostly dry day in Houston. That said, I cannot entirely rule out some showers late this afternoon coming in off the Gulf along the coast or out of Louisiana for folks east of I-45. As long as it stays mostly dry though, it’s going to be awfully hot once again today. We should make a run for the upper-90s.

It’s going to be very hot today, even along the coast, where offshore flow will limit a cooling sea breeze. (NWS via Weather Bell)

Heat advisory criteria may come close to being met in parts of the area, so if you’ll be outdoors, please take it easy. Also, keep that in mind if you’ll be on the beach today, as high temperatures in Galveston will likely make a run for the mid-90s with mostly offshore winds.

Tonight

Given the somewhat erratic nature of storms around Barry (see below), as it begins to approach Louisiana tonight, some of the outer fringe that has been fairly supportive of occasional clusters of storms may graze our area. So we will call it partly to mostly cloudy tonight, with a very slight chance of thunderstorms, virtually at anytime. We should know more about those prospects later this afternoon and will update you then.

Saturday

We could have a tale of two types of weather across the Houston area Saturday. For simplicity, we will use I-45 as our dividing line; the reality is it could be more to the east or west of that line, but it works for a generalization. West of I-45 could be partly sunny and hot. High temperatures may approach the mid- to upper-90s again. This would be most likely in places like Navasota, Katy, or Rosenberg. East of I-45 might be susceptible to more outer bands of Barry, which could yield occasional showers and thunderstorms and temperatures more erratic, ranging from the low-80s to mid-90s depending on who sees rain. This would be most likely for places like Galveston, Baytown, or Liberty.

This late afternoon forecast of how radar *might* look on Saturday shows small outer bands of Barry possibly dropping south and west into the area. Rain on Saturday is possible anywhere, but most likely along the coast or east of I-45. (Weather Bell)

The general rule? The more to the east you go or closer to the coast you are, the more likely you will be to see showers or storms. Galveston will see a good chance for at least some storms, so stay lightning aware if you’ll be on the beach. Also keep in mind that any rain could be heavy at times.

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Tropical Storm Barry has formed, bound for Louisiana

We just wanted to offer up a quick update this morning to let you know that Invest 92L, or Potential Tropical Cyclone #2 has now been declared officially as Tropical Storm Barry in the Gulf.

Satellite imagery shows a system struggling to consolidate, but it has organized enough to be classified as a tropical storm. (College of DuPage)

Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph as of the 10 AM CT National Hurricane Center advisory. The system is still struggling a bit to organize this morning, but now has a better defined center, enough so to be classified as a tropical entity. Most of the storms are displaced to the south and west of the center. Over the next 24 hours, the satellite presentation of Barry should improve, and slow strengthening should commence.

For us in Houston, the good news is that we remain outside the forecast cone, unlikely to see any significant impacts from what should become Tropical Storm Barry.

The National Hurricane Center forecast for Barry was nudged even a bit farther to the east this morning. (NOAA/NHC)

The National Hurricane Center is bringing Barry somewhere between Cameron & New Orleans on Saturday as a category 1 hurricane. Hurricane Watches remain hoisted from Cameron to the mouth of the Mississippi River. Tropical Storm Warnings are now up for the Louisiana coast east of Morgan City. For folks in Louisiana, this will be a tropical system, yes, but the main story will probably remain the rains that will fall, regardless if this remains a weak tropical storm or strengthens into moderate or strong tropical storm or hurricane. Those rains will all be capable of producing widespread flooding problems in the eastern half of the state and perhaps in Mississippi, should the storm shift any farther to the east.

Here in Houston, just keep tuned to the forecast, especially if you are traveling anywhere east of the region this weekend. Otherwise, expect some showers and storms to pop up this afternoon or evening. Some of the storms could be locally heavy.

Eric will have more for you later this afternoon.