Matt Lanza

Hot, quiet weekend ahead, but forecast headaches loom

Hot, hot, hot! Thursday was the hottest day of the year so far in Houston. We hit 95°, which is right about average for our first 95° day of the year. Typically, our first 95° day occurs about June 13th (based on records back to the 1880s). Fun fact: In 1899, we didn’t hit 95° for the first time until August 8th! If only…

Today & Weekend

With our first 95° in the books, we’ll try and tack on at least one more this weekend. High pressure should dominate the next two to three days, keeping us mostly dry and hot. I suppose we can’t entirely rule out a stray downpour Friday, Saturday, or Sunday, but for the most part, the only detriment this weekend will be the heat. If you’re outside, make sure you stay hydrated, wear sunscreen and find some shade when possible. It’s very basic, common sense stuff, but it’s always worth a reminder.

NWS forecast highs are once again close to the middle 90s today. (Weather Bell)

 

All three days should see low to mid-90s for highs. Nighttimes will be sultry, with upper 70s in Houston and about 80 degrees along the Southeast Texas coast. Galveston will offer limited relief at night this weekend.

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Unsettled weekend for Houston, but not a washout

Houston officially only hit 84° yesterday, several degrees shy of our average of 90° this time of year. Clouds and showers certainly helped. What does our weekend have in store?

Friday & Saturday

It’s very difficult to have a day in summer in Southeast Texas where you don’t have a chance of showers or hit and miss thunderstorms. That means we have to find ways to express which days have better chances than others. If yesterday was a five out of ten, today and tomorrow should be about a three or four out of ten. One of the key reasons is precipitable water (PWAT), a basic gauge of how much moisture is available in the atmosphere. Our PWAT value yesterday morning was around 1.8″ (or higher). Both today and tomorrow it should be more like 1.6-1.7″.

PWAT values yesterday vs. today show a fairly substantial drop. That won’t eliminate storms, but it should mean just a few less than were around yesterday. (NOAA)

 

This means we’ll almost certainly have scattered downpours around, but by no means should either day be a total washout. Have an umbrella handy and just be ready to scoot to shelter if you’ve got outdoor plans. Lightning will definitely be possible in the storms, as it almost always is during summer. Storms may also have heavy rain. There was some very localized street flooding in the Sugar Land area yesterday, and it’s conceivable that a handful of places may see a similar situation today or tomorrow.

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Quiet to start Memorial Day weekend, but rain chance increasing

Texas has had a bit of a checkered weather history on Memorial Day weekends. The good news is that a good chunk of this weekend will be fine, albeit quite hot. The final part of it should see more active weather and rain chances. Whether you’re heading to Hill Country, Big Bend, South Texas, or Dallas, you’ll have at least some rain and storm chances to contend with at some point this weekend.

Today and Saturday

We have turned up the humidity this morning, and we’ll continue to raise it as the day goes forward. Low clouds this morning may be a bit stubborn, but expect sunshine to begin peaking out a bit later. High temperatures should be around 90 degrees as long as we get sunshine. It will turn partly to mostly cloudy tonight, and it’s going to remain on the muggy side, with lows likely not dropping below the upper 70s or even 80° in spots.

Saturday afternoon looks mostly alright, but it’s going to be hot. Temperatures should officially hit at least the low-90s Saturday, with some chance we see mid-90s officially (upper 80s to near 90° at the coast). Heat index values will be pretty high, and given that we haven’t had to deal much with that yet this year, use caution if you’ll be taking in the outdoors. Drink plenty of water.

No matter where in Texas you might be on Saturday, it’s going to be very hot. (Weather Bell)

Rain risks Saturday would be confined to a very isolated morning shower near the coast or Galveston Bay. Anything serious should stay way up in far north Texas or Oklahoma. Those showers and storms will likely fall apart as they get south of Dallas.

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by Jetco Delivery)

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Severe thunderstorm watch Tuesday Evening for Houston north & west

Just a quick late afternoon update for everyone. The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 PM for basically everyone north and west of the center of Houston.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch through 11 PM for Houston and areas northwest of the city. (NWS)

 

A few showers and storms are developing north and west of College Station, mainly in the I-35 corridor this afternoon as a cold front slides this way.

Radar image as of 3:50 PM shows storms in the I-35 corridor, ready to drop south and east. (GRLevel3)

As we go into this evening, we expect these storms to hold together and strengthen a bit further. As a result, scattered showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will approach the Houston metro area after about 6-7 PM. They should clear the coast by about 11 PM or so. Storms will probably peak in intensity northwest of Houston, but some of the stronger ones could hold together to the coast as the front moves through the Houston metro this evening. The NWS may expand the watch a little later if necessary. Any thunderstorms could have strong winds (50-70 mph or so), large hail, and heavy rain. Tornadoes are always a possibility with severe weather, but in this case, the risk of that looks very low and is not a significant concern.

HRRR model depiction of timing/orientation of storms this evening. Expect storms moving northwest to southeast across our area from about 6-11 PM. (Weather Bell)

 

As is often the case in these scenarios, not everyone will see thunderstorms or severe weather; that will be isolated to scattered. But some of you could see some strong to severe storms this evening. Have a way to receive weather warnings, particularly if you’ll be outside enjoying the nice weather we’re having today. Don’t worry: Equally nice or nicer weather is on tap tomorrow.

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by Jetco Delivery)

Posted at 3:50 PM by Matt