Okay, campers, rise and shine, and don’t forget your booties ’cause it’s cooooold out there today! Unlike 1993’s “Groundhog Day,” this will soon be a distant memory as we warm up heading into next week. But in the meantime, it is our coldest morning since February of 2021. Houston has so far bottomed out at 16°, and the coldest reading I can find as of 6:30 AM is 10° up in New Waverly. I also saw an 11 just outside Tomball. Whatever the case, it’s about 10 to 20 degrees in most places this morning, and it’s cold.

The wind isn’t helping. We continue to see wind gusts up as high as 33 mph in Houston at Hobby Airport and 39 mph in Galveston. The combination of wind and cold makes it feel about as brutal as it can realistically get here in Houston. Wind chills are currently 5° in Galveston, 3° at Bush Airport, 1° at Hobby Airport, and -4° in Conroe.

So before you go out and do that last minute Christmas shopping, please make sure you are adequately dressed. This type of cold can be dangerous, especially for those of us in Texas that are simply not used to temperatures at these levels.

The good news is that roads should be all clear and passable, as we saw no ice or snow with the front yesterday. Travel anywhere across Texas is fine today. If you are flying, please go with a lot of patience. Flights to Chicago are likely to be delayed. Milwaukee’s airport is currently closed. All of these issues will cascade through the system, so flight delays and cancellations are possible anywhere.

Some good news is that ERCOT is in fine shape this morning. As of this writing, Texans are using about 73,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity, and the grid has nearly 85,000 MW available. According to their site, things do get a little tighter looking this evening, as wind falls off versus where it was last night and this morning. As of now, we don’t foresee any serious issues, but given that they failed to forecast the amplitude of the energy demand last night and this morning (they missed by several thousand megawatts), it is worth monitoring later today.

Centerpoint is reporting just shy of 20,000 customers without power this morning. This is due to localized outages from tree branches or power lines being impacted by the strong winds in our area. That number should improve through the day as winds ease up.

Friday

The good news is that the sun will help make it feel just a little less uncomfortable today. Still, expect high temperatures barely scraping 30 degrees in most places. The freeze continues.

Winds will remain blustery today, with gusts of 20 mph inland and 30 mph at the coast. So wind chills will remain a factor all day today as well.

Tonight & Saturday

Most of our attention has been focused on this morning’s temperatures because they were to be the coldest of this event. But tonight will be pretty rough as well. Thankfully, we will see less wind, but we will still likely have a hard freeze almost everywhere, so keep all protective measures for pipes, plants, people, pets, and livestock in place. Some passing cloud cover may prevent temperatures from dropping as far as they did last night and this morning, but it will still be plenty cold.

Saturday should end up being a slightly nicer day. Expect only a light breeze, more sunshine, and temperatures warming above freezing and deep into the 30s.

Sunday & Monday

Christmas Day will be another chilly one, but we’ll be gradually eating away at the cold. Only outlying areas really have a risk for a significant hard freeze Sunday morning, while most of Houston proper, coastal areas, and some of the denser suburbs will probably “only” get to the mid-20s overnight. We’ll turn things up into the 40s on Christmas afternoon.

We may get a weak reinforcing front on Monday. Still, we’ll likely get above 50 degrees Monday afternoon. We’ll have another chilly night Monday night into Tuesday with 30s in most spots and perhaps a few high 20s in outlying areas.

Rest of next week

Tuesday will see highs in the 50s or low-60s, Wednesday in the 60s or low-70s, and Thursday into the 70s. In fact, we’ll probably see highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 50s or 60s straight through New Years weekend. The weather may turn more unsettled late next week as well, but details on that are minimal this far out. We’ll tackle that next week.

The long-advertised front has arrived, bringing a sharp dose if frigid air diving down from the Arctic Circle. Wind gusts this afternoon have exceeded 40 mph at multiple locations this afternoon, including a top speed of 48 mph at Hobby Airport. As of 5:30 pm CT, air temperatures remain just above freezing in the Houston metro area, but that will not last long as the mercury starts to drop tonight.

Cooldown

Houston is headed into the icebox for a solid 36 hours. Lows tonight will likely fall into the mid- to upper-teens for all the metro area, aside from the immediate coast, which may hold at 20 degrees or slightly above. Even will full sunshine on Friday, high temperatures may only briefly reach 32 degrees during the afternoon, whereas areas further inland may only top out at about 30 degrees. Conditions will be very cold again on Friday night, with lows perhaps only 2 to 5 degrees warmer than Thursday night. By Saturday, finally, the area should see highs of around 40 degrees.

The good news is that there is no snow or ice on roadways, so aside from blustery conditions it is safe to drive throughout the greater Houston area and beyond. Roads will remain dry through Christmas Day and beyond.

Power

One of the major problems during the February 2021 freeze was the lack of power, when “rolling” blackouts became permanent due to poor management of the Texas electricity grid and a lack of oversight for proper winterization of power plants. It does appear this problem has been solved. ERCOT is reporting excess power generating capacity, and expects to have electricity to meet demands overnight as temperatures plummet across the state. You can track supply and demand in real time here.

Next post

Matt will have a comprehensive update for you by around 6:30 am CT on Friday. Until such time, please stay warm, make sure your pets and neighbors have the shelter they need, and take care of one another. It is the holiday season, after all!

Good morning, y’all. As the title said, today is a weather day you may remember for a long time. I can point to half a dozen vivid weather memories in Houston that are as plain as day for me—late-night flooding during Harvey, Allison, and Imelda; winds and tornadoes during Ike; drought during the summer of 2011; and the extreme cold, snow, and ice of February 2021. Today we will be making some new memories I think.

As I look out the window of my home office this morning I see fog, as dewpoints and temperatures have both settled in the mid-40s this morning. After a mild start, we’re going to see temperatures climb to nearly 60 degrees. Then, this afternoon, one of strongest cold fronts I’ve observed in my lifetime is going to whip into Houston. This will, in very short order, drop air temperatures by 30 degrees. When you factor in strong winds, it will feel about 60 degrees colder tonight if you step outside. Not that I would recommend it.

I also want to say a word about forecasting. There are some things we still can’t do very well at Space City Weather. For example, if there’s a 50 percent chance of rain on any given day, I can’t absolutely tell you whether (or not) it will rain at your house. But in terms of large pressure patterns, that span thousands of miles across the globe, our best forecast models are starting to get pretty good. Don’t believe me? Here’s what I wrote ten days ago about the weather for today, December 22.

There is a fairly strong signal in the models for an even deeper burst of colder air toward the middle or latter half of next week. This could push overnight temperatures below freezing—perhaps even into the 20s—by around December 22 or so. This really is at the edge of our reliable forecasting capability, so it remains speculative. But my sense is that the days leading up to Christmas are going to be quite cold, and possibly the holiday itself. How cold? I’d love to be able to tell you that, but I can’t. However, I do think we’re looking at lows probably between 25 and 40 degrees, so you can expect Jack Frost to be nipping at your nose.

Space City Weather, Dec. 12, 2022

I’m not going to take credit for that, but I will say that part of good forecasting is understanding when you should lend credence to weather models, and when to consider something as chaff. That is some of the value we try to bring to you, helping to understand what is real about upcoming weather, and what is fluff. The cold tonight, by the way, is very real.

Thursday

As mentioned, we’re seeing some fog this morning, but that should dissipate with sunrise or shortly thereafter. The only real change in our ongoing forecast for the front is that its timing has sped up a little bit. If you’re living in College Station I’d expect its passage by around Noon, and for it to push into the Houston metro area between 1 to 3 pm, and reach the coast by around 5 pm CT. I can’t rule out any precipitation with 100 percent certainty, but anything that falls will be light, and may not make it all the way to the ground.

The immediate changes with the front will be sustained north-northwesterly winds at about 25 mph, with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph. By around sunset most of the metro area will already be experiencing freezing temperatures, with air temperatures dropping into the 20s by this evening. If you’re out and about after 9 or 10 pm, be prepared for apparent temperatures in the single digits. To the extent we have electricity concerns, at this moment our largest worry is brief outages due to strong winds affecting poles and lines. Otherwise, we expect the Texas power grid to be able to accommodate demand over the next few days.

Friday

How low will temperatures go on Friday morning? Some of this will depend on the extent of winds and mixing overnight, but it’s a safe bet to expect lows in the 15 to 20 degree range for areas inland of Interstate 10, including locations north and west of Houston. The city itself will likely see lows between 17 and 22 degrees, with coastal areas between 20 and 25 degrees.

Friday will be sunny, with continued gusty northerly winds, and high temperatures briefly nearing or reaching the freezing level. Lows will drop again on Friday night into the low 20s for much of the area, with local temperatures perhaps 2 to 5 degrees warmer than Thursday night.

Saturday

Christmas Eve should see highs near 40 degrees, with sunny skies. Overnight lows will drop into the mid-20s.

Christmas Day

Another sunny day, likely with highs in the mid-40s. A light freeze is possible on Christmas night.

Next week

There remains some uncertainty about the early part of next week, and an additional front possibly moving through. But it seems that we’ll be solidly into a warming trend by Wednesday, with highs bound for the 70s. It looks like rain chances may start to increase toward the end of next week, and we may be looking at a slightly wet period heading into New Year’s Eve. But for now the details on that are just too fuzzy.

Next update

We’ll have our next update for you this evening, after the front’s passage, to refresh our expectations for overnight low temperatures.

All things considered, Tuesday was a really pleasant day. The Sun emerged during the afternoon hours, and high temperatures climbed to nearly 60 degrees. We’ll remain relatively warm through Thursday afternoon, at which time a strong Arctic front will barrel into the Houston region and plunge temperatures well below freezing in the metro area. This will bring the region its coldest weather since February 2021, and calls for precautions for exposed pipes, tropical plants, and pets.

Wednesday

While we saw some sunshine on Tuesday, skies today will probably remain on the mostly cloudy side of things. This should limit high temperatures to the upper 50s. Winds will be light, out of the northeast. Lows tonight will only drop into the mid-40s as winds shift to come from the south and southeast. This will herald the beginning of a short-lived warming trend.

Thursday

Aside from the potential for some patchy fog, Thursday morning looks fine. Highs may briefly climb into the low 60s ahead of the front, which probably will push through Harris County between 2 and 4 pm ET. Some very light precipitation is possibly with the front, but it will not be enough to stick to roads, so inclement driving conditions are not anticipated. Temperatures will drop swiftly after the front’s passage, with freezing conditions likely north and west of Houston by sunset, and temperatures dropping into the upper 20s by 8 to 10 pm. Winds will be very gusty, out of the north at up to 35 mph. This will make for extremely unpleasant conditions outside Thursday night and Friday morning, when apparent temperatures drop into the single digits.

Friday

This will be the coldest morning of the year in Houston, Texas. But how cold? That’s the question. We’re confident in clear skies, which are ideal for radiational cooling. However, mixing from the gusty winds will complicate matters. That said, I think lows will bottom out from 15 to 20 degrees north of Interstate 10, from 17 to 23 degrees south of Interstate 10 in Harris and Fort Bend counties, and from 20 to 25 degrees in coastal counties, including Galveston. Friday will be sunny, with still very cold with a stiff northerly breeze. Highs likely will briefly climb above freezing during the daytime for most of the region, but we can expect another very cold night, with lows only 2 to 5 degrees warmer than Thursday night.

Saturday

Christmas Eve looks sunny, with high temperatures of around 40 degrees. It will be another cold night, however, with lows dropping into the mid-20s.

Sunday

Christmas Day should be mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-40s. Dare I say that might feel almost balmy? OK, probably not. A light freeze is possible on Sunday night for areas away from the coast.

Next week

Monday will see an ongoing warming trend, but after that there is some question about whether a reinforcing cold front moves into the area. If it does, this could keep the region on the cooler side of things—nights in the 30s?—through about Wednesday. By the second half of next week I expect us to see highs in the 70s. A weak front may arrive ahead of New Year’s Eve, bringing some rain, but that’s at the edge of our ability to predict weather.