An abnormally cool stretch of mid-November weather continues. We’ve already had more sub-60 degree days this week than all of last November and December combined. Of course, given how warm last year was, that isn’t saying much. But still. We have at least a few more days of sub-60 weather before things change somewhat.

Fundraiser

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Today

Look for clouds to thicken up as the day progresses. We should begin to see sprinkles or light showers break out from southwest to northeast across the region. Initially, these may struggle to reach the ground due to dry air, but as we get closer to evening, I suspect we’ll get more reports of light rain or sprinkles. Temperatures should remain mired in the 50s today.

Saturday

Welp. Tomorrow may be a front-runner for most miserable day of the year.

It’s a pretty simple forecast: Periods of rain, steady at times (especially south of Houston). Cloudy. Cold. Breezy. Temperatures will stay stuck in the 40s all day. Look for breezy conditions with winds of 15 to 25 mph at times, stronger over the water or near the coast. Just really raw, cold, and quite nasty for Houston.

Rain totals will average a half-inch to inch and a half south of Highway-105. Some places may see a bit more, especially nearer to the coast. Others to the north may see a bit less. But everyone sees at least some rain tonight and tomorrow.

Rain should taper off from west to east overnight into very early Sunday morning.

Sunday

Despite Saturday’s gloom, I am optimistic that we should break out into at least a little sunshine on Sunday. It still won’t be a wonderful day, but compared to Saturday it will seem glorious. We should manage lower-50s. A few showers could break out late in the day west of Houston.

Monday

As of now, expect mainly cloudy skies on Monday with scattered showers or some rain. We’ll have to see if this trends more toward a wetter period like Saturday has done. For now, we’ll just call it scattered showers and update you this weekend. One thing we are confident it will be? Chilly. Again. Look for low-50s, maybe mid-50s if were lucky or upper-40s if we’re unlucky.

Tuesday and beyond

We continue to struggle with details regarding the Thanksgiving period. What we know is that there will likely be quiet weather on Tuesday with building rain chances Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures should gradually sneak back above 60 degrees by Wednesday and Thursday, with morning lows in the 40s early, warming into the 50s and 60s late.

What we don’t know is exactly when it will rain Wednesday through Friday. Our modeling continues to struggle a lot with what may be a pretty significant storm across the Eastern U.S. One school of thought is for a slower moving, stronger storm that would bring thunderstorms and possible severe weather to Texas and Louisiana. That option seems to be fading some. Another slightly more likely possibility is for a quicker moving, weaker system with just a few showers and storms. Here’s the best thinking right now:

Tuesday: Clouds, some sun, a shower possible. Morning lows 40s, daytime highs near 60.

Wednesday: Clouds, some sun, a few showers or sprinkles, especially south and west. Morning lows 50s, daytime highs mid to upper-60s.

Thanksgiving Day: Clouds with a period of showers and storms possible. Morning lows 50s to 60s, daytime highs upper-60s.

Friday: Sun & clouds. Maybe a shower. Morning lows 50s or 40s, daytime highs low-60s.

That’s what we can give you for now. We will keep you posted this weekend with a daily morning update on the forecast both tomorrow and Sunday!

Good morning. Houston will continue to face winter-like weather through the weekend and into early next week. Of note: The forecast for Saturday looks particularly gloomy, with widespread showers, breezy conditions, and highs of perhaps only 50 degrees. We are increasingly confident that conditions will warm up next week ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, but the details are rather messy.

Thursday

Temperatures are generally in the 40s this morning with leaden skies. Away from the coast, those clouds should thin out later today, leading to partly sunny skies this afternoon. Where conditions do clear, highs will push up to around 60 degrees, with light northeasterly winds. With partially clearing skies, low temperatures tonight will drop to around 40 degrees in Houston, with colder conditions inland.

Friday

We may see some more sunshine on Friday morning before clouds start to build during the late morning or afternoon hours. In the big picture, high pressure will be moving off to the east, to be replaced by an incoming cold front that will arrive later on Saturday. I expect highs to reach the mid- to upper-50s for much of the area, with a slight chance of light rain during the afternoon hours, and a slightly better chance Friday evening. Lows Friday night will drop into the mid-40s in Houston.

Saturday

If you have outdoor plans on Saturday, I am sorry. As the front pushes into the Houston area it will combine with low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico to make for a wet, windy, and cold day. Highs on Saturday may struggle to reach 50 degrees for some locations, and we’re not going to see much, if any sunshine. Winds may gust up to 20 mph from the northeast, with even more blustery conditions along the coast. Most of the area will see between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain, with the bulk of it coming during the daytime on Saturday. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the low 40s.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend looks slightly better, with only very slight rain chances. Still, expect mostly cloudy skies and highs only in the mid-50s. Winds will remain out of the northeast, albeit slightly less blowy than on Saturday.

Next week

Monday should be another cold, gray day with highs in the 50s. Some rain chances return, with perhaps of 40 percent likelihood of some light precipitation. After Monday it looks like the familiar onshore flow will finally return to the area, warming temperatures toward 70 degrees by midweek. As for Thanksgiving and beyond, it will all depend on the evolution of the next cold front and its associated storm system. There remains little clarity in the models on when that will move through, and whether it will bring any significant shower activity as far south as Houston. For now I’d lead toward a warmer, and possibly wetter Thanksgiving holiday. But that forecast remains about as firm as grandma’s Jell-O salad, which no one ever eats.

Fundraiser

We’re well into our annual fundraiser, when you can buy merchandise or donate money to support the work we do here (select “make a donation only”). Your contributions pay for keeping Space City Weather running even during the busiest times, fund further development of our app, and support the amount of time Matt and I devote to watching and writing about the weather. Thank you so much.

First off this morning, congratulations to NASA and those who have worked so hard on Artemis on a successful launch overnight!

We got the sun back out yesterday after a dreary Monday. We should hold on to at least some sun today, though clouds may at times block it out. The next 8 or 9 days will feature quick moving systems that impact the region every couple days, possibly culminating in a wetter period right around Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Those odds have inched up a bit since yesterday. More on that in a second.

Today

We aren’t expecting any adverse weather today, so you can confidently go about your plans without issue. You’ll see both clouds and sun but probably more clouds than sun overall. It will remain chilly with highs only in the mid-50s. A continued breeze at times, especially into tonight, will enhance the chill, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph near the coast.

Thursday

A chilly start to the day won’t get a whole lot better tomorrow. Clouds should dominate early Thursday with more sunshine in the afternoon. A system passing by overhead will bring a non-zero chance for some showers, sprinkles, or light rain, but it would seem most of that should fall well offshore. Highs will be in the mid-50s again.

Friday

As systems continue to move along briskly, Friday should be a mainly quiet day between them. It will be quite cold in the morning.

We’ll warm from the 30s and 40s into the mid-50s. Sunshine should be around in the morning, but it may fade behind increasing clouds through the day. There could be a few showers very late in the day southwest of Houston, toward Matagorda Bay or into portions of Fort Bend and Brazoria Counties.

Saturday

The forecast for Saturday is a bit trickier with a system passing just offshore. This looks like a farther south version of what happened in our area Monday. In other words, most of the heavier rain should stay offshore, but there will be at least scattered showers or periods of rain in the Houston area and points south. Places north of the Brazos Valley or Conroe may see little to no rain on Saturday. That said, trends in recent days have been toward slightly higher rain chances. Rain totals look to be about a quarter-inch or so in Houston, with higher amounts south and lower amounts north. We’ll watch to see if this changes at all.

Expect a good deal of clouds outside of that, with highs in the 50s. A breeze of 15 to 20 mph will be possible, especially near the coast once again.

Sunday

Clouds may linger behind Saturday’s system keeping Sunday cool but dry. Sunshine should gradually break back out though. We should do yet another day of (say it with me again) mid-50s after a morning in the 40s.

Next week

Let’s start with this: Confidence in any specific details for next week’s weather is fairly low. We can speak generally though. Monday looks a bit unsettled with a chance of showers as one disturbance swings through. Tuesday will probably be dry with winds shifting back onshore for the first time in a bit. That will bring clouds and shower chances to the region on Wednesday, especially west of Houston. All that congeals into a storm that drags a front through on Thanksgiving, turning us somewhat cooler for the weekend.

The problem right now is determining exactly how that storm behaves on Wednesday and Thursday, as that will ultimately dictate specifics. Models are split between a very aggressive storm with a chance for strong storms and heavy rain, especially Wednesday night (the European model) and a much less aggressive system with a chance of showers mostly (the GFS model). The European model would have meaningful impacts on travel and events. The GFS model would not. Truth be told, I think our confidence has increased a little in the last 24 hours that at least some portion of the holiday will be wet. Beyond that, we can’t say much else. Stay tuned.

Monday and Tuesday will probably see morning lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s or low-60s. We could push 70 on Wednesday or Thursday with humidity before turning cooler and drier into the Friday and weekend period.

Fundraiser

Our annual fundraiser continues this week. Thank you to all who have helped contribute to keep pushing us along for another year! You’ve still got time to purchase or donate to directly support our work. You can click here to do that. If you don’t wish to purchase merchandise and just want make a contribution, click here and check the box that says “I’d like to make a donation only.”

Good morning. After Monday’s widespread showers, Houston will now see a prolonged stretch of colder than normal weather, with high temperatures not climbing out of the 50s each day until next Monday or Tuesday. It is unlikely that the metro area will experience a freeze this week, but that is not out of the question for far inland areas. Finally, we’re continuing to watch the possibility of a warm-up next week, and the potential for rainfall just before, or on Thanksgiving.

Tuesday

With a tight pressure gradient across the region in the wake of Monday’s cold front, we’ll continue to see brisk northerly winds for much of the day. These winds, and some lingering clouds, will make our “high” temperatures in the mid-50s today feel rather chilly indeed. If you’re wondering about rain chances, they’re mostly nil until this weekend. After gusting to about 25 mph today, winds should die down some this evening, with lows dropping to around 40 degrees in much of Houston. Conditions will be colder still north and west of the urban area.

Wednesday

Wednesday should bring more of the same partly to mostly cloudy skies, and highs in the mid-50s. Northerly winds will still be present, but more on the order of sustained at 10 mph, and gusts to 15 mph or so. Expect another chilly night in the low-40s in Houston.

Thursday

An upper-level system works its way toward our area on Thursday, so we can expect more clouds to help keep our highs in the mid-50s. There is a slight chance of light rain with this weather system, but mostly we’ll probably just see gray skies. After the upper-level low moves through we should see some briefly clearing skies on Thursday night into Friday morning, and this will probably give us our coldest night of the week. Parts of Houston may see the upper-30s, with a light freeze possible further inland.

Friday

Expect partly sunny conditions, with highs in the mid-50s. Lows will be a few degrees warmer on Friday night, but still dropping into the mid-40s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend forecast is still kind of a muddle, at least Saturday. There’s the potential for low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico to bring a healthy chance of rain into the Houston region on Saturday, but there’s not a whole lot of consensus in where the models ultimately bring it. For now, I’d say the Houston region has a one-in-three chance of rain, with perhaps slightly higher odds along the coast. Othewise expect mostly cloudy skies and highs in the 50s on Saturday. Sunday should see clearer skies, with low- to non-existent rain chances, and highs in the mid- to upper-50s.

Next week

Monday looks partly sunny, with continued cool weather. However by Tuesday temperatures look to be on the upswing, rising from the 60s to perhaps low- 70s by Thanksgiving. At some point next week, maybe on Thursday night or Friday, another front may swing through to cool things back down. It’s worth noting that there is a fairly strong signal in the global models for shot of rainfall in the Wednesday or Thursday period of next week ahead of said front. So I would be prepared for the potential of some rain, at some point, on Thanksgiving. Whether this ultimately comes to pass nine days from now is a big IF.

Fundraiser

As a reminder, we’re conducting our annual fundraiser for Space City Weather. This is your one chance to support what we’re doing here. Your purchase of merchandise, and donations (select “make a donation only”) helps keep us going all year long, and is deeply appreciated.