There’s no question it has been a dry spring for the Houston area. Much of the region south of Interstate 10 has received less than 50 percent of normal rainfall, and this dry spell has come on top of an exceptionally hot May. Add these two factors together, and soils are rather dry heading into summer, which is a solid recipe for a significant drought. But summer is not fully here yet, and fortunately for us there’s a pattern change ahead this weekend that should bring some much-needed rainfall to the region before the onset of June.

Thursday

The rain isn’t here yet, however, and Houston will experience a few more blazing hot, sunny days before some relief arrives this weekend. Temperatures will reach the low 90s for most today, with mostly sunny skies, and a pronounced southerly flow. Look for winds out of the south at 10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph. Lows tonight won’t drop below of the mid-70s for most.

Friday

This will be another hot and sunny day, with high temperatures in the low-90s and gusty southerly winds. With increasing clouds, look for a very muggy night Friday, with lows only dropping into the upper 70s.

Saturday

The weekend will start out with cloudy skies and muggy conditions as temperatures reach the lower 90s on Saturday. For the most part, I expect rain showers to hold off on Saturday, with the possible exception of areas well to our northwest, including College Station. This will be due to a slow moving, weakening cold front that is likely to reach the Houston metro area late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. For the most part, I don’t really expect much rain in the Houston region until after midnight.

Sunday

As the front moves into Houston and essentially stalls, we should see widespread showers and thunderstorms. Overall, I’m not expecting anything too extreme, with accumulations likely on the order of 0.25 to 1.0 inch for most. Highs on Sunday will probably reach the upper 80s beneath mostly cloudy skies. Lows on Sunday night should drop to near 70 degrees overnight.

Early next week

The overall pattern for Monday through Wednesday is one where we have an unsettled atmosphere, with the remnants of the front hanging around, and disturbances passing overhead. With this kind of pattern I expect most of the region to pick up an additional 1 to 4 inches of rainfall through Wednesday. Highs should generally slot into the mid-80s with mostly cloudy skies. We should be back into the low 90s by the end of next week, with drier conditions. So for the sake of our region’s soils, and with apologies to those who have outdoor activities, I really hope the forecast for rainfall comes through next week.

Good morning. Our abnormally warm May weather continues, but I’m still expecting a modest break from the heat this weekend as well as the influx of some much needed rainfall. How much? We don’t yet know. But until then, it will feel a lot like June or even July outside.

Wednesday

As high pressure begins to sag eastward, we’ll see an onshore flow today that is a bit stronger, with southerly winds at 5 to 15 mph, at times gusting to 20 mph. Aside from that, there’s not a whole lot to say, with high temperatures topping out in the low- to mid-90s with mostly sunny skies. Conditions tonight will be warm, with lows in the mid-70s, generally, and partly cloudy skies.

Thursday

If you liked Wednesday’s weather you’re in luck. Thursday is going to be just about the same.

Friday

High temperatures on Friday may be a degree or two cooler, and the southerly flow a little bit stronger. Sustained winds on Friday afternoon could reach as high as 20 mph, with gusts of 25 or 30 mph. Mostly sunny skies during the afternoon will give way to more clouds during the evening and this will make for a warm and sultry night. Look for lows to only fall to near 80 degrees in the city of Houston.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday should start out warm, and mostly cloudy, with high temperatures reaching into the low 90s. After that we’re watching the movement of a slow-moving (and dying) cold front approaching our area. While the details remain fuzzy, rain chances should start to increase on Saturday evening into the overnight hours, with a healthy chance of rain persisting into Sunday. Most of the area should at least see some rain, perhaps a few tenths of an inch, but we certainly cannot rule out the potential for more localized heavy rainfall. Temperatures on Sunday will probably be in the 80s for most areas.

Next week

It looks like what remains of the front will move off shore, allowing most of the region to stay in the 80s on Monday. But after that we’ll start to warm back up. While nothing is certain, it looks as though the pattern will support decent rain chances at least into the middle of next week. With June around the corner, several days of on-and-off rain sure would help with the region’s emergent drought.

So far, this May, every day has recorded an above-normal temperature. The monthly average of 80.8 degrees is on pace to be the second-warmest May on record for Houston, behind only 1996. Temperatures this week will be even warmer, with highs likely reaching the mid-90s, and lows in the mid-70s. However my confidence is increasing in the arrival of a weak, late season cool front on Saturday night or Sunday that should bring some moderate relief in terms of temperatures, and needed rain showers.

Tuesday

In the meantime, however, high-pressure is going to drive near-record heat across the region. Today will be mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the mid-90s, and southerly winds at 5 to 10 mph. Overnight lows will be muggy, with temperatures only dropping into the low-70s beneath mostly cloudy skies.

Wednesday and Thursday

Expect more of the same, with highs in the low- to mid-90s, and mostly sunny skies. Winds will be a little more noticeable, blowing out of the south at about 10 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph. Do I really need to tell you that the nighttime will be warm and muggy?

Friday

Highs on Friday should reach the low- to mid-90s, and we’ll see even stronger southerly winds at 15 to 20 mph, and gusts of 25 or possibly even 30 mph. Friday night looks especially muggy, with overnight lows in the mid- to upper-70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast for the weekend remains a bit fuzzy, but some sort of change is indeed coming. It looks like an atmospheric disturbance will provoke a chance of showers on Saturday morning, primarily for inland areas. Then, an approaching front should bring a widespread chance of showers and thunderstorms sometime between Saturday evening or Sunday morning. Right now accumulations don’t look too impressive, perhaps on the order of 0.25 inch for most, but that value is subject to change. The bottom line is that Saturday should be partly to mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid-90s, whereas highs drop into the mid-80s or so on Sunday, with continued clouds. Lows on Sunday night should drop to around 70 degrees for Houston, with cooler conditions further inland.

Next week

Monday should again be in the 80s before the cold front washes out. With the return of the onshore flow, it looks like we may some additional (and welcome) rainfall by Tuesday or so. Yes, please.

Good morning. Just a quick note about the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season: We are a little more than two weeks from the start on June 1, and on Sunday the National Hurricane Center began its regular issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks. The five-day outlooks are released four times daily at 1 am, 7 am, 1 pm, and 7 pm CT through November 30th. There is nothing imminent, but this serves as another reminder that hurricane season is nigh.

Monday

As for our more immediate weather, after a hot and sunny weekend, more hot and sunny weather is on the way. Partly cloudy skies this morning will give way to mostly sunny skies this afternoon as high temperatures rise into the low- to mid-90s. Winds will be light, at about 5 mph, out of the southwest. A few, very scattered showers may be possible later this morning as a dying storm system moves southward into the region. But I don’t think these showers will make it all the way to the metro area. Lows tonight will drop into the low- to mid-70s for most.

Tuesday

This will be another hot and sunny day with highs in the mid-90s, lows in the mid-70s, and modest southerly winds at 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The high pressure system that has pushed our highs upward will start to weaken slightly during the second half of this week. Effectively that means that our high temperatures may fall back slightly, to about 90 degrees or a few ticks higher, with sunny skies. However, a few more clouds overnight should push nighttime temperatures up a few degrees. So toward the end of the week overnight lows probably will not be dropping below the mid- or even upper-70s. Rain chances remain very low, at 10 percent or less.

Saturday and Sunday

The pattern may start to change by Friday night or Saturday, as the overall flow in the atmosphere opens us up to the potential for some rain showers, and possibly even a very weak, late season front. All of this is very speculative, however. For now, let’s go with highs of around 90 degrees for each day this weekend, and a 30 percent chance of rain. Obviously we’ll have to adjust this forecast in the coming days.