Good morning! The big talking points this week are a brief warmup through Tuesday, the potential for storms ahead of the next cold front, and then an extended period of warmer weather during the first week of December. Before getting to the weekly forecast, however, I want to say just a little bit more about the Thanksgiving rains.

Earlier this year, parts of the Houston region were experiencing an extreme drought, and problems were most acute in Brazoria and Galveston counties. Even prior to last week’s rains these coastal counties were in what the US Drought Monitor characterizes as a “moderate drought.” Fortunately, I think we can safely put those concerns to bed after the region’s widespread rains on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday morning. Nearly all of the coastal counties pulled in 4 to 6 inches of rainfall, with areas further inland recording 2 to 5 inches generally. This was the soaking we needed to extinguish this year’s drought.

Fundraiser

Our annual fundraiser ends tomorrow! We have had a tremendous response this year from readers, and Matt and I are truly grateful for your generous support. If you’ve not picked out a shirt or other items, there is still time. You can buy Space City Weather merchandise here, or donate by clicking “I’d like to make a donantion” only. Thanks!

Monday

Much of the area is starting today out in the 40s this morning, and with mostly sunny skies we should see temperatures warm nicely into the low 70s by this afternoon. A reinforcing front arrived on Sunday to keep us dry overnight, but that front is washing out today and will be replaced by a warmer onshore flow. Accordingly, light northerly winds this morning will turn southeasterly later today. This will bring increasing clouds this evening, and lows tonight will only drop to around 60 degrees. (By the way, if you’ve not heard yet, the city of Houston is under a “boil water” notice due to a water pressure issue).

Tuesday

Given the warmer temperatures overnight, we have a good chance of seeing sea fog on Tuesday morning, which likely will be thickest near the coast. Otherwise, skies will be mostly cloudy on Tuesday, with highs near 80 degrees. The big question concerns the possibility of showers and thunderstorms during the daytime, ahead of a frontal passage late Tuesday night. All of the atmospheric ingredients we need for storms are there, but they probably won’t line up just right. (The story is different well to our northeast). As a result, I expect to see scattered showers in Houston, with the potential for some thunderstorms on Tuesday. Accumulations don’t look particularly notable. The frontal boundary, with cooler and drier air, is unlikely to reach Houston until around sunrise on Wednesday.

Wednesday

In the wake of the front this will be a cool and sunny day, with highs of around 60 degrees. Winds will be blustery, gusting up to 25 or 30 mph out of the north. Lows will bottom out near 40 degrees on Wednesday night.

Thursday

Another chilly day, with highs in the upper 50s to about 60 degrees. Expect partly sunny skies.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend looks warmer as the onshore flow gets reestablished. Saturday and Sunday, in particular, should see highs near 80 degrees with partly sunny skies. We can’t rule out a slight chance of rain on both days, but for now any accumulations look slight.

Next week

The early part of next week looks fairly warm, too, before a cold front arrives to chill us down. The details of how strong this front will be, alas, are pretty fuzzy.

Good morning. The storm system that has hit our region during the last two days is finally moving eastward. The last line of its showers is moving fairly quickly from west to east across the area. Areas near Interstate 45 are still being hammered this morning with rainfall, but the heaviest of these storms will be gone by around 7:30 or 8 am, and the rains should be over entirely by 10 or 11 am. Skies will clear out this afternoon. We are ending the Stage 1 flood alert accordingly.

As anticipated, much of the area has received 2 to 4 inches of rainfall since Thanksgiving morning, with a few isolated areas receiving as much as 7 inches of rainfall. I’ll post more about this on Monday, but these rains have definitely put a nice dent in the drought that formed this summer and fall across parts of the Houston metro area. And so while they may have made for a soggy holiday, our trees will be thankful for these rains.

The good news is that while the last two days were wet, the second half of the long weekend will be sunny and fine. Look for clearing skies this afternoon and highs in the upper 60s. Winds will be noticeable, out of the west, at times gusting up to 25 mph. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 40s in Houston, with colder conditions inland. Winds will slacken some on Sunday, with more sunny skies, and highs in the upper 60s to 70 degrees. In short, this should be a fine fall weekend once rains clear this morning.

We’ll see a sharp warm-up by Tuesday, with highs climbing to about 80 degrees, before the next cold frotn arrives to cool things off for a few days. I hope everyone has a pleasant end to the holiday weekend.

Fundraiser

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Good afternoon. If you’re tired of gray skies and wet streets, I’ve got bad news and good news for you.

We’ll start with the bad news: It’s not over.

Now for the good news: It’s almost over.

The greater Houston region faces one more wet and possibly stormy night before we see some sunny and sedate weather.

Friday afternoon

After a lull in activity for most of today, as of 3:30 pm CT, storms are forming to the southwest of the Houston metro area and moving toward the city. These showers should be less intense and more scattered that what’s coming later tonight, after midnight, but a few areas may still see some briefly intense rainfall this evening. So if you’re out and about, please be mindful of conditions nearby. Temperatures should hold steady in the low 60s.

Late Friday night/early Saturday morning

Overnight a slow-moving low pressure system should combine with ample atmospheric moisture to produce heavier rainfall. Sometime after midnight, therefore, we expect strong, widepsread storms to move into the Houston region and generate rainfall rates as high as 2 inches per hour. These rates are intense enough to quickly back up roads, and therefore we expect that some areas will see street flooding late tonight into Saturday morning. While we cannot entirely rule out a touch of severe weather, such as damaging winds for the most part these should be be heavy showers with some lightning mixed in.

At some point these showers will clear out from west to east on Saturday morning. Most model guidance suggests the heavy rain should depart by 7 to 9 am, with showers ending entirely by around noon. Between now and then I expect most areas to receive 2 to 4 inches of additional rainfall, with the potential for higher totals in isolated areas. The further north of Interstate 10 you live, the more likely you are to see lower accumulations.

Saturday afternoon and beyond

Skies should clear pretty quickly as the rain showers move out, so I expect partly to mostly sunny skies by Saturday afternoon, with highs of around 70 degrees. Lows on Saturday night will drop to around 50 in Houston, which means colder conditions further inland. Sunday looks splendid, with sunny skies and highs of around 70 degrees. Monday will be similar before we start to warm up ahead of a mid-week cool front.

Unless the forecast takes a turn for the worse, this will be our last update until Saturday morning, at which time we expect to drop the Stage 1 flood alert.

Fundraiser

There yet remains time to support the work we do here in our annual fundraiser. You can buy Space City Weather merchandise here, or donate by clicking “I’d like to make a donantion” only. Thank you to everyone who has generously contributed so far!

Thanksgiving’s rains were very impressive. In fact, for Hobby Airport it was a new Thanksgiving record, with 1.53″ of rain, breaking last year’s 0.59″ (set on Nov 25 last year) for wettest Thanksgiving since records began in 1930. But it was areas just east of Hobby Airport that really took home the stuffing.

A narrow band between about Friendswood through just west of Mont Belvieu saw anywhere from 3 to 7 inches of rainfall, with the bullseye right over Deer Park. In addition, you may have heard about the tornado warning in Brazoria County. Thus far no confirmed tornado reports have been noted, but things definitely got dicey for a few minutes yesterday afternoon. The severe threat is not zero today, but it’s relatively low and confined to areas well south of Houston.

Housekeeping/Fundraiser

I just want to open today with a little housekeeping. First, with active weather back in the area for the first time in awhile, we encourage you to download our app for your iPhone or Android device. Likewise, if you or someone you know prefers weather updates in Spanish, Maria Sotolongo does exactly that for you at our companion site Tiempo Ciudad Espacial! Maria truly does outstanding work, so please check it out and share it with any of your friends or family like weather updates written in Spanish. Maria also curates our Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter feeds for TCE, so you can follow those as well.

Related to that, our annual fundraiser is down to the wire now! There are just a few days left for you to truly help make a difference for our site. Your contributions directly help fund our work, app improvements, and tricks up our sleeve for the future. You can click here to buy items to rep the site. And if you don’t wish to purchase merchandise and just want make a contribution, click here and check the box that says “I’d like to make a donation only.” We are grateful for any and all support. Thank you!

Today

Onto the weather. A little housekeeping here too: A Flood Watch remains in effect until tomorrow morning, and Eric and I will maintain our Stage 1 Flood Alert until then as well. We continue to expect primarily street flooding to be the issue with further rains, but we also do want to monitor the area around Armand Bayou through the Clear Creek watershed given yesterday’s exceptional rains there.

The frustrating reality today is that we do not expect a washout, but there will be a chance of rain and scattered showers or downpours around virtually all day. The morning looks mostly fine, but rain showers will become more frequent this afternoon and evening. The bottom line today: Have an umbrella and a backup plan in case you’re chased indoors for a time. Temperatures look relatively stable, in the 50s and 60s, gradually warming through the day.

Later today through Saturday morning

It’s encouraging that we have a little bit of a break today because we are likely to get smacked with another round of heavy rain and storms this evening into Saturday morning. Expect periods of showers and storms to become more numerous from late afternoon and evening, culminating in what should be a pretty solid line of storms toward sunrise on Saturday. Some strong storms with gusty winds are possible in addition to heavy rainfall.

We expect roughly 1 to 3 inches of additional rainfall between now and tomorrow morning, most of which will fall in roughly a 6 hour window overnight or early Saturday. Isolated higher amounts are absolutely possible. The heaviest rain seems likely to fall near where the heaviest rain fell on Thanksgiving Day, which is to say in Houston and points south and east. Street flooding will again be possible tonight and early Saturday.

Temperatures will remain stable, in the 60s.

Rest of Saturday

If you have outdoor plans Saturday, you have a mixed bag. The morning will be dicey due to lingering showers and storms, but the afternoon looks great. Rain should end from west to east between about 7 and 10 AM on Saturday. Skies should begin to clear and temperatures will bounce around a bit within the 60s with lower humidity. We should cool a bit toward the 50s by late afternoon.

Sunday and beyond

Sunday will live up to its name with sunshine. Morning lows will start in the 40s to near 50 and warm by afternoon well into the 60s. We will essentially repeat this on Monday.

For Tuesday, clouds and temperatures will increase. We have an outside shot at 80 degrees Tuesday afternoon with enough sunshine. Our last 80 degree day was on November 11th. A few showers will be possible. Humidity will also surge higher. Our next front should arrive Wednesday into Thursday knocking us back into the 40s for lows. Another fairly quick warm up seems likely for next weekend, but additional shots of cool to cold air may not be far behind. A little something for everyone.

Eric will have an update later this afternoon to set us up for tonight’s storminess.