Good morning. Before the forecast, let me just say a few words about Tuesday’s storms. Most of the tornadoes associated with this powerful system remained well to the west (Austin), north (Crockett), and east of the Houston metro area. Notably, a powerful tornado struck the New Orleans area on Tuesday night, killing at least one person, and damaging many homes. Such large tornadoes are relatively rare in cities near the Gulf coast, a category which includes Houston. Why? Because the supercells that produce them typically form and pass further inland. This is due to the sharp temperature gradients needed between warmer and cooler air to produce tornadic rotation, which are often not present so close to the Gulf of Mexico. Usually, but not always, the tornadoes we see in Houston are EF-0 to EF-1, with winds of about 60 to 100 mph. An assessment will be performed today to determine the strength of the New Orleans twister.

Wednesday

Temperatures have generally fallen into the upper 40s across the metro area and winds have died down this morning. With high pressure holding sway we’ll see some gorgeous spring weather this week. I call this “almost painful” weather because living in Houston we know the kind of heat and humidity that is coming this summer, and it’s almost painful to think about how pleasant things are now in contrast. But that’s my opinion of course, I know some of my readers absolutely love summers in Houston. To that I say, bless your hearts. High temperatures will reach near 70 degrees today, with winds out of the north at 10 to 15 mph. Low temperatures tonight will be similar, in the upper 40s for most.

Thursday and Friday

We’ll warm up heading toward the end of the work week, with highs in the low 70s on Thursday, and near 80 degrees by Friday. Lows should still drop into the 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

The onshore flow resumes this weekend, but we still should see fairly dry air and mostly sunny skies. In short, it should be another great weekend for whatever springtime activities you have in mind. Both days should see high temperatures of around 80 degrees, give or take. There are no rainfall concerns.

Next week

Clouds return to the forecast for the first half of next week, but for now I’m not anticipating much in the way of rainfall. Dewpoints will continue to rise, however, so we’ll become friendly with humidity by Monday or Tuesday. The next front should arrive later on Wednesday or next Thursday, but we’ve now reached the point of the forecast where it should be written in pencil, so we’ll just have to see what this way comes.

The much discussed cold front is advancing toward the Houston metro area, and will push through the region this morning. It is producing a squall line of strong thunderstorms. This line of storms, presently along a line from Victoria-to-Sealy-to-near-The Woodlands, should reach areas such as Sugar Land, Tomball, and downtown Houston by around or before 7 am CT; League City and Baytown by around 8 am, and have exited the area shortly after that.

The good news is that, as these storms have moved eastward overnight across Texas, they have lost some of their severity. Therefore, while there remains a chance of hail and tornadoes, that threat should diminish somewhat as the storms moves through our region this morning. Probably the biggest severe weather worry at this point is straight-line wind gusts of 50 or possibly even 60 mph.

The other concern is heavy rainfall as the squall line moves in. Some areas may quickly pick up 2 to 4 inches of rainfall this morning, flooding streets for a short time as high rainfall rates overwhelm roadways. Again, this threat should end quickly as storms exit to the east.

Unfortunately, the Houston metro area will be affected this morning as people are heading to work, and children going to school. If it is possible to delay travel until the squall line as passed your area, that would be for the best.

Beginning later this morning, high pressure will ensure that our weather is fair for the remainder of the week, with plenty of sunshine and pleasantly dry air.

I am writing this at 9 PM, and we’ve had confirmed tornadoes this evening in Round Rock, Jarrell, Elgin, Taylor, and Snook, all to the west of the Houston area.

Thus far in Houston it has been quiet. Some of you are likely prepared to shout “BUST!” at us, but as we’ve been discussing, this was expected to be a nighttime affair in Houston and not everyone is expected to see severe weather. Here’s what we can tell you about the rest of tonight.

First off, a Tornado Watch is in effect for most areas north of Spring and west of Brookshire. The majority of the Houston area is not in any severe weather watch as of 9 PM.

Through Midnight

No issues are expected aside from scattered showers, possibly becoming more numerous on a line from Lake Livingston through Katy. Severe weather is unlikely in Houston before midnight. As I write, there is currently a tornado warning through 9:45 PM northeast of College Station, but there are no other supercells on track for Houston. Good news for sure.

Midnight through 6 AM

This will be when the vast majority of the action occurs around here. Look for showers and some thunderstorms to become more numerous as the overnight hours progress, mainly on the north and west sides of Highway 59/I-69. So folks in Galveston and Lake Jackson will likely see minimal activity through about 3 AM or so. All this will eventually get picked up by a developing squall line that’s currently located in the Austin area, along I-35. That will expand and shift east. Look for this line to progress across the Houston area between about 4 AM and 8 AM. As this occurs, we will be at our highest risk for strong winds, hail, and perhaps an isolated tornado. In other words, that will be the time of our highest odds for severe weather.

I do not want to minimize the tornado risk, as there is still going to be a healthy amount shear around, but these types of scenarios typically produce brief, lower-end tornadoes. So we are probably not going to see larger supercells with long-track tornadoes like we saw this afternoon and evening east of Austin. That said, given the potential for severe weather occurring overnight, you absolutely should have a way to be notified of weather warnings, be it using your phone or with a weather radio. Have a way to be notified and woken up should a tornado warning be issued for your area. And even if there aren’t tornadoes, damaging winds and potential for hail warrant your attention too.

In addition, flash flooding remains a possibility, as even non-severe storms will be capable of producing 1 to 2 inches or more an hour. We maintain a Stage 1 flood alert for the area, north of I-10.

After 6 AM

The good news is that once this line punches across the area by 8 AM or so, we’re done. We will see clearing and increasing sunshine with highs in the 70s and lower humidity.

Unless something ridiculous changes, Eric will have our next update for you a bit earlier than usual tomorrow morning. Try to get some sleep if you aren’t working the night shift, and if you are, please stay safe!

Good afternoon. Overall, the forecast remains on track. Houston will experience scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. The threat of severe weather will increase after sunset, and peak overnight, before storms clear the area on Tuesday morning. Let’s examine the dual threats tonight: Severe storms and flooding.

Severe storm potential

NOAA has updated its severe storm outlook for Monday and Monday night, and upgraded some parts of our region to a “moderate” chance of severe storms. This is the second highest level of threat, and is indicative of the potential for supercell thunderstorms. Such storms can produce large hail, strong wind gusts, and tornadoes. The area with the most favorable conditions for these storms later today and tonight is northwest of Houston, and includes Austin and College Station. Most of Houston faces a lesser albeit still notable threat tonight, while the coast is at less of a risk.

The bottom line is that strong and severe storms are possible tonight in the Houston metro area, particularly after 8 pm and continuing for about a 12-hour period. Not everyone will see severe weather, of course, and we cannot predict precisely where such storms will develop. So be weather aware, and take shelter in the event a tornado warning is issued.

Heavy rainfall potential

Later tonight the potential for heavier, training rainfall will also move into the picture. The problem is that as the cold front nears Houston early Tuesday it will start to slow down. This may cause storms to slow, and thus produce greater accumulations over certain areas. We’re still looking at 1 to 4 inches for most of the area, but bullseyes of 6 inches or more are possible for some locations, especially away from the coast. For this reason we’ve issued a Stage 1 Flood Alert for the metro are north of Interstate 10. Street flooding is possible in these locations.

The good news is that this mess will clear out pretty quickly on Tuesday morning, taking its rainfall off to our east. But it could make for a stormy night, and potentially a messy commute to work on Tuesday morning before that happens.

Matt will have an update for you later this evening.