So, if you were looking for a nice weekend, you will get your wish. The weather this weekend looks great: Sunshine, comfortable afternoons, and not too much wind. We will enter a more active weather pattern next week with a number of things to talk about, none super serious but a few you will want to be mindful of moving ahead.

Today

We have a weak cold front sneaking through this morning, which has led to some showers, primarily south of Houston, toward Wharton and Matagorda Counties. So you may get some showers down there. The rest of us will see clouds slowly clear out this morning, leading to a sunny afternoon. It will feel a little cooler today with generally mid-50s and a breeze.

Saturday & Sunday

As noted above, both days look great with sunshine and just a few clouds. We’ll warm from the 30s to around 60 degrees on Saturday, and then we’ll go from 40 or so into the mid-60s on Sunday. Just splendid.

Monday

The first hurdle for next week comes on Monday. Modeling has been in pretty good agreement on a rather vigorous little disturbance swinging through the region with a period of rain for a good chunk of the area beginning in the mid to late morning and ending sometime Monday evening. I will definitely mention the chance of thunderstorms here as well. At this point, widespread severe weather isn’t expected with this disturbance, but I think we should watch Monday for at least the chance of a few stronger storms especially south of Houston. We’ll update you Monday morning with the latest.

On average, I’d expect an inch or so on Monday, particularly from I-10 southward. There will likely be areas of higher amounts up to 3 inches or so, again especially to the south of Houston. Areas north of Houston may see a bit less, depending on the exact track this disturbance takes.

Outside of Monday’s rain, it will be a touch milder with morning lows around 50 or in the 50s and daytime highs in the 60s.

Tuesday & Wednesday

Behind Monday’s storm, we should calm down on Tuesday and most of Wednesday. Look for clouds, some sun, and perhaps a shower chance. We have a shot at 70 degrees on both days, and depending on the exact timing of the next front, it could push well into the 70s on Wednesday. Morning lows will generally be in the 50s. As warm, humid air starts to return, expect the Gulf fog machine to try and turn back on for the first time in awhile, so we could have some gloomy mornings with low visibility.

Late next week

Our next front is timed out to late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Expect showers and thunderstorms as this pushes through, with another widespread rainfall possible. As Eric has noted, the air behind this front is going to pack a little punch. Expect windy and colder conditions Thursday and a decent chance at a freeze on both Friday and Saturday morning and possibly Sunday morning as well. It’s a little too early to get too specific, but at the very least, I think we should be expecting a freeze similar to what we’ve already seen this winter, with risk for temps a couple degrees colder than that.

If you look at the various ensemble model guidance, there is a range of morning lows from the low-20s to mid-30s next weekend, meaning there’s still a lot of uncertainty here on specifics. But I think it’s safe to plan on mid to upper-20s for a few mornings for now, and we’ll adjust up or down next week as needed. The good news is that daytime highs look to be generally in the 40s, if not low-50s, so we will warm well above freezing each day. We will keep you posted on this, but just to be clear, while cold, this doesn’t appear to be a repeat of last February.

Good morning. Houston will see lots of sunshine and cooler weather over the next four days before some clouds, warmer air, and pretty healthy rain chances move into the picture early next week. After a few warmer, wetter days it appears likely that a strong cold front will arrive on Wednesday to bring us very much back into winter-like conditions. A freeze seems probable late next week.

Thursday

Today will bring pleasant weather, with light northeasterly winds and mostly sunny skies. We can expect high temperatures to reach about 60 degrees for most area. Low temperatures tonight will generally drop into the upper 40s as a reinforcing front arrives. Some very light precipitation is possible overnight as the front moves through, but the more noticeable impact should be gusty northerly winds.

Friday

Those winds will build through the morning, perhaps gusting to 20 or 25 mph during the early afternoon hours as they peak. With the influx of drier air we should see clouds eroding during the morning hours, with lots of sunshine by the afternoon. Highs will only reach the mid-50s, however, and as night falls and the wind drops, air temperatures will plummet into the 30s in Houston, with a light freeze possible for inland areas.

Saturday

This will be sunny and chilly winter day. Expect highs in the upper 50s to 60 degrees, with light northerly winds. Low temperatures Saturday night should be 3 to 5 degrees warmer than Friday night.

Sunday

This will be another sunny day, although a few clouds may form during the afternoon or evening hours as winds turn to come from the southeast. Expect highs to reach the mid- to upper-60s, with lows dropping to somewhere in the vicinity of 50 degrees on Sunday night.

Next week

A series of upper-level disturbances will move through the area, and as the atmosphere moistens with the onshore flow we’ll see rising rain chances. I think most of our region will probably see 1 to 3 inches through Wednesday, with high temperatures in the range of 70 degrees.

A front looks set to arrive on Wednesday, bringing some of the coldest weather of the season. It’s too early to have any confidence in the forecast, but most of the region will probably see some sort of a freeze. To be clear, there is zero support for a freeze like we experienced in February 2021. It just looks like a pretty good cold spell. Details, as always, to come.

In the wake of Tuesday’s cold front, Houston will now see a period of chilly days with partly to mostly sunny skies through the weekend. Clouds, some humidity, and rain chances return on Monday. All in all, it will feel a lot like winter in Houston.

Wednesday

Winds are blowing out of the north this morning at 10 to 15 mph from the northeast and this influx of cooler air should continue for most of today, limiting high temperatures in the mid-50s despite the presence of sunny skies. A few clouds will develop overnight, but temperatures should still drop to around 40 degrees in Houston as winds slacken somewhat.

Thursday

Some clouds will work their way into the region on Thursday ahead of the next cold front, so expect partly sunny skies during the morning, and grayer conditions as we get toward evening. Highs should reach the upper 50s for most locations, with light northeasterly winds. Overnight lows will drop into the low- to mid-40s. Some light rain is possible Thursday night as the front passes through early Friday morning.

Friday

Skies should begin to clear out in the wake of the front, but even with the sunny skies temperatures will crest in the mid- to upper-50s. This will be a somewhat chilly day, with winds gusting out of the north at or above 20 mph during the daytime. Lows Friday night will drop into the 30s in Houston, and a light freeze is possible for outlying areas.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks tremendous for late January, with mostly sunny skies and cool, dry air. Look for highs near 60 degrees on Saturday, with overnight lows dropping to around 40 degrees, and highs in the upper 60s on Sunday.

Next week

As the onshore flow returns, look for increasing atmospheric moisture levels to spark a decent chance of rain through about Wednesday. Highs should eventually climb back into the low 70s before a front late on Tuesday or some time Wednesday brings more chilly weather back into the picture, with nights perhaps dropping back down to around 40 degrees. Look for rainfall accumulations of perhaps 1 inch next week, give or take.

Good morning. Although today will be our region’s warmest day until Sunday, the high temperature will probably not reach 60 degrees for some locations. Beyond the chillier conditions, and the potential for a light freeze on Saturday morning, there is not a whole lot to remark upon as Houston experiences fairly typical weather for this time of year. And if you like it, you’re in luck. After a brief warm-up early next week, this chilly weather could persist through at least the first half of February.

Tuesday

Temperatures will rise from the upper 40s this morning to around 60 degrees for much of the area today, but likely not go any higher due to mostly cloudy skies. A northerly flow will bring drier air into the region later today, and this will eventually erode cloud cover late today or tonight. As this drier and cooler air works its way into the region, expect temperatures to drop to around 40 degrees tonight, with cooler weather inland and warmer conditions along the coast.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be a pair of chilly winter days, with highs generally in the 50s, and lows in the 40s. Wednesday will see lots of sunshine, but Thursday should see the return of some clouds. Both days will probably see light northerly winds, with possibly a shift to southerly winds by Thursday evening.

Friday

Another cold front will arrive on Friday, probably during the morning, to shut down any kind of a serious warmup for the region. The atmosphere will be fairly dry so I’m betting against rain with this front, but it can’t entirely be ruled out. Winds will be breezy, out of the north, on Friday in the wake of the front and highs may struggle to reach the low 50s despite sunny skies. Temperatures will drop sharply on Friday night with clear skies and lessening winds. Much of the region away from the coast, and outside of Houston’s urban core, will probably see a light freeze on Saturday morning.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

Saturday is likely to be sunny, with moderate winds, and a high of around 60 degrees for most areas. This will be a fine winter day for any outdoor activities. Sunday should be partly sunny as well, with highs in the mid-60s as winds shift to come from the south. I think rain chances will remain near zero for most of Sunday, so this should be a fine day for outdoor activities as well.

A warming trend will occur from about Monday through Wednesday of next week, with highs reaching perhaps the low 70s by the middle of the week. Rain chances look to be healthy all three of these days, with accumulations of perhaps 1 to 2 inches, but it’s way too early to say anything more specific than the pattern is likely to turn wetter. A front on Wednesday night, give or take half a day, is likely to bring colder and drier weather back to the region.

A few words on generators

I wanted to say a few words about generators this morning because now is the time to be thinking about such a project in advance of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. As demand for whole-home generators has surged following the great Texas freeze last February as well as COVID supply chain issues, there is now an industry-wide lead time of 8-9 months from initial inquiry to completed installation. While these times have begun to shorten, if you want to have peace of mind with backup power this summer and fall, now is the time to begin planning.

As you probably know, Reliant is a long-time sponsor of Space City Weather. They partner with a company called Quality Generators that offer a range of generator products, including whole-home generators. I had one installed last year, and the process was quite smooth. Buying a generator capable of powering your entire home is a major investment. For the average homeowner in Houston, it will likely cost between $10,000 and $15,000. But for many, it may be a worthwhile investment.

Here are a few other things to consider: