After five sunny and splendid days, Houston’s weather will turn warmer and muggier in the days ahead, with increasing rain chances by Tuesday running through the end of the week. Much of the area should see 1 to 3 inches of rainfall this week, which is fine as it has now been nearly two weeks since Hurricane Nicholas made landfall.

Monday

Today will be somewhat of a transition day after high pressure has departed the region. Yes, atmospheric moisture is returning, but levels should not be high enough to generate much in the way of shower activity. Area-wide, rain chances will be only about 10 percent. There should be enough afternoon sunshine to allow temperatures to approach 90 degrees for much of the region, and lows will only drop into the mid-70s.

Tuesday

Conditions turn more favorable for showers on Tuesday, with rain chances increasing to about 40 percent. Additional cloud cover should shave a degree or two off peak temperatures during the afternoon. Storms will be scattered, and should move fairly quickly from south to north.

Wednesday and Thursday

Rain chances will peak on these days, as an energetic atmospheric feature known as a “jet streak” moves overhead and helps air at the surface to rise. As a result, both of these days should be mostly cloudy, with on and off shower activity. Highs will be in the mid- to upper 80s. Rain will be possible during the overnight hours as well.

Friday

Models suggest rain chances will start to diminish on Friday, perhaps to around 50 percent, but this should still be a mostly cloudy day, with highs slotting somewhere in the mid-80s.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

The forecast for next weekend remains fairly fuzzy. It now seems unlikely that a front will make it through the area, but we may fall further under the influence of high pressure by Saturday or so, and this should bring sunnier weather back to the region. For now, I’d predict partly sunny skies this weekend, with highs in the upper 80s. But the forecast is written in pencil, rather than pen. The arrival of our next front now looks to be delayed until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Tropics

The Atlantic tropics remain active, with major hurricane Sam and a couple of more areas likely to develop later this week. However, Sam will probably steer east of Bermuda and avoid any landmasses, and there is no reason to believe any of the other storms in the Atlantic will track far enough west to reach the Gulf of Mexico.

Our official morning low at IAH Airport was 57° yesterday and 58° today, the coolest pair of back to back days since late April or early May. We are now on the “other side” of things in the wake of the cold front, which means that, while it will still be quite nice the next couple days, it will begin to warm up a bit.

Today & Saturday

Both days look mainly sunny with light winds and comfortable humidity. Look for highs in the mid-80s and nighttime lows inching back into the lower or middle 60s.

As high pressure gradually slips to our east, we will see onshore winds gradually return here, which means humidity will inch back up just a bit also by tomorrow.

Sunday

The end of the weekend will mark the true transition back to more late-summer weather. Expect continued sunshine and a morning low in the mid-60s (warmer at the coast), followed back daytime highs in the mid to upper-80s with a bit more humidity.

Monday & Tuesday

Weather models had been pretty aggressive with bringing rain back to the area next week. For Monday and Tuesday at least, that doesn’t seem too likely. Yes, there will be shower chances on both days, but the setup initially looks kind of mediocre, with probably just a few showers and generally lighter rainfall totals by the end of Tuesday. We will see clouds and plenty of humidity though. Look for highs near 90 degrees and lows in the 70s.

Wednesday & Thursday

The middle to late part of the week may see just a little more support for showers, so rainfall could be a bit more noticeable then. Highs will be contingent on cloud cover and could exceed 90 with enough sunshine, but we’ll generally call for upper-80s or a little cooler with more rain showers.

Overall, we aren’t especially excited about this setup for rain next week. Given the models maybe backing down some today, it looks like an average of 1 to 2 inches is most likely across the region. The highest amounts may be south and west of Houston. Some of you may see less than an inch too. More on this for you Monday.

Late next week

Weather models have been at least hinting at some kind of cold frontal passage later next week for a few days now. It’s too early to get too specific, but I think the evidence points to a couple things right now. First, the “front” will probably not be like this week’s front in that we aren’t going to turn significantly cooler behind it but rather a little cooler but a good bit less humid. I wouldn’t expect 50s for lows right now, but we’ll see.

Second, the timing of the front would be probably next Saturday or Sunday, so most, if not all of next week looks humid. Could all this change? Certainly. We’ll see how things go over the next few days and report back to you next week on what’s happening. So, soak up the next day or two if you like autumn weather.

Tropics

I want to just append a quick note on the tropics today because yesterday morning we had Tropical Depression 18. This morning we have Hurricane Sam. Sam has rapidly intensified into a hurricane out in the open Atlantic.

Sam is expected to become at least a strong Category 3 storm over the next few days which will also help it probably track a little more to the north than it appeared a couple days ago. This should hopefully bypass the Caribbean islands entirely and then turn north and out to sea, though Bermuda may need to keep an eye on Sam. Otherwise, as Eric noted yesterday, at least the Gulf should remain trouble-free.

Have a great weekend!

It’s a strange time a year. The historical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season came fewer than two weeks ago. Moreover, a little more than a week ago, Hurricane Nicholas struck the Texas coast and knocked out power for hundreds of thousands in the region. And today, Space City Weather is saying hurricane season is probably over for Texas? Really? Why yes. Yes we are.

There are a couple of reasons for this. Historically, the odds of a hurricane striking the state of Texas are about 1-in-50 after September 24. Our confidence is increased this year because, looking ahead at the next 10 days, the western Gulf of Mexico looks pretty quiet, especially north of the Bay of Campeche. This is the time of year when the jet streak starts a seasonal swing southward, and our region becomes more prone to cold fronts, which push any tropical systems in the Gulf of Mexico to the east. We’ve already seen one weak front about 12 days ago, a stronger one yesterday, and there’s perhaps another front coming early in October.

All of this means that we’re pretty confident that Texas is not going to get hit by another hurricane this year, even though the “Atlantic season” runs through November 30. We may very well still see tropical mischief, in the form of a depression or moisture that sparks some heavy rainfall. But the blowy, storm-surge stuff—we’re probably done with worrying about that for 2021. As always, we’ll keep an eye on the tropics. But you don’t have to if you don’t want to.

Thursday

There’s not a whole lot to say about our weather other than it’s gorgeous. Lows this morning range from the 50s inland to about 70 right along the coast. Today will bring more dry air, with light easterly winds, sunny skies, and highs in the mid-80s. Lows tonight will drop into the low 60s.

Friday and Saturday

Expect more of the same. Highs in the 80s. Sunny skies. Mostly dry air.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend should see continued sunny skies, but dewpoints are going start climbing, and so while temperatures remain in the 80s it will start to feel a touch more humid. Lows Sunday night will be notably warmer, likely only dropping to around 70 in Houston.

Next week

Much of next week will be something of a return to summer-lite weather, with highs near 90 degrees, lows in the low 70s, and lots of clouds. As the influence of high pressure lessens, we’ll open back up to moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and rain chances will increase to perhaps 50 or 60 percent each day. As a rough guess I’d say much of the metro area sees 1 to 3 inches of rain total, or thereabouts. But it’s still too early for any precision. The models are starting to hint at a front in the Friday or Saturday range of next week, but there are certainly no guarantees.

This is my second favorite post of the year to write—that fall’s first real front has finally arrived in Houston. (Tomorrow, I plan to write my favorite). Not only will we see drier and cooler air, one of the pleasant surprises of this front is its sticking power. We should see about four days and notably cooler nights before humidity levels start to creep up on Sunday. More typically, our first fall front washes out within a couple of days. So let’s enjoy!

Wednesday

Dewpoints have generally fallen to the upper 50s this morning, and should fall further throughout the day. Accordingly, the air will feel much drier. With lots of sunshine, temperatures will quickly warm to the mid-80s this afternoon, but drop again as the Sun sets. Winds will be out of the north from 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts. Overnight lows will vary widely, from about 50 degrees in Conroe to 70 degrees right along the coast, in Galveston Island.

Thursday and Friday

More of the same: Sunny skies, highs in the low- to mid-80s, and cool nights down in the low 60s in Houston, and cooler for outlying areas.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks a bit warmer, with highs in the mid- to upper 80s, but there should still be enough dry air to keep conditions pleasant, especially on Saturday. Skies will be sunny, and rain chances near zero. Plan outdoor activities with confidence.

Next week

As the onshore flow really returns on Sunday, we’ll start to see dewpoints climb, and we’ll get back to late summertime weather with highs near 90 degrees. Rain chances should also start to increase by Tuesday or Wednesday as atmospheric moisture levels rise, along with lots of cloud cover. Most of next week will probably be warmer and muggier.