Let’s start today’s post with some numbers as of yesterday, the 16th of December.

68.4°: The average temperature for December so far in Houston, a record for the warmest first 16 days of the month.
11: The number of 80° days recorded at Hobby Airport so far this December. (tying a record; it should be broken today)
9: The number of 80° days recorded at Bush Airport so far this December. (the record should be tied today)
5: The number of record warm low temperatures set or tied in Galveston this month.

Yes, it has been the warmest start to December on record in Houston. That doesn’t necessarily mean it will finish as the warmest December in our recorded history, but clearly this is an abnormal month. If you’ve had enough, you’ll get a chance to enjoy cooler weather beginning tomorrow. If you want more of this, there is a non-zero chance you’ll have an opportunity for that again in about a week.

Today

We have some dense fog across parts of the area this morning, particularly near the bays and Gulf and in the outskirts of the suburbs. Look for clearing this morning, and that will likely lead to one more day of low to mid-80s across the area with very high humidity.

Records today are 81° at Bush, 82° at Hobby, and 77° at Galveston. All three seem likely to be tied or fall.

Saturday

For those of you planning something outdoors on Saturday, the news is not great. Rain should develop in the morning, possibly heavy at times and accompanied by thunder. Rain will likely shut off from northwest to southeast through the early to mid-afternoon. We may manage a dry stretch after 3 PM. This will be especially true north and west of Houston. How much rain are we expecting?

We should see on the order of a half-inch to an inch of rain across the area, welcome moisture for an area slowly trying to nudge into drought. Some areas will see more than that, however. An isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out either, particularly from Houston south and east.

The front should get through the northwest suburbs of Houston by mid to late morning, the central part of the area by midday and the coast by early afternoon. Temperatures will drop from the 70s into the 60s, if not the 50s as the front passes, and they’ll stay there or slowly drop off a few more degrees through the day. In addition to cooler temperatures, a brisk north wind gusting to 20 mph or so will add some chill to the air.

Sunday

We’ll likely see a mix of clouds and sun on Sunday with temperatures warming from the 40s into the 50s, maybe upper 50s to near 60 with enough sunshine. It will remain at least a little breezy on Sunday.

Monday

A weak system will pass to our south Monday morning, perhaps passing close enough to deliver a few showers or even a rumble of thunder to the area before skies clear out late. The best chance for showers will be the closer you get to the coast. Look for morning lows again in the 40s with highs likely only at best in the mid-50s, possibly even a bit cooler.

Tuesday through Thursday

Look for very nice weather for the middle of next week. Both Tuesday and Wednesday should be partly to mostly sunny. High temperatures should be in the 60s after morning lows in the 40s. Tuesday morning could even see some 30s in spots. Onshore flow should begin to kick back in on Thursday, but we’ll likely see a mix of sun and clouds and lower 70s with morning lows in the upper-40s and 50s. If you’re looking for some optimal holiday-ish weather for Galaxy Lights, Zoo Lights, Lightscape at the Houston Botanic Garden, or just walking around the neighborhood, you’ll have it here.

Christmas Eve & Christmas Day

Based on the best available modeling to us today, we have a cold front that will at least flirt with us on Christmas. There remains a very wide spread in possible outcomes. If you compare just the Euro and GFS operational models this morning, you get about a 15 degree spread in temperature outcomes for Christmas morning.

Ensemble models don’t offer much clarity, with about 60% of the European ensemble members pushing a front through by Christmas and maybe 5% of GFS ensemble members. So, it will either be pleasantly cool (close to normal) or warm & muggy. One thing we can say with some confidence: It will probably not be truly cold this Christmas.

Eric and I will keep you posted next week.

In what has quickly become a family tradition, our clan visited Space Center Houston on Sunday evening to take in Galaxy Lights, presented by Reliant at Space Center Houston. It was a lovely evening, with light winds, temperatures in the low 50s, and clear skies. As you might imagine, the space-themed holiday cheer was once again a hit with a website named after “Space City.”

If you’ve not been before, Galaxy Lights features a mix of indoor and outdoor spectacles. You walk into and out of the museum, which is lit up with technologically advanced light displays. Many of the light displays are space-themed, from astronauts and rockets to planets. The highlight, for me, was walking through a 200-foot LED light tunnel composed of more than 250,000 lights synchronized to holiday music.

What’s nice about this exhibit is that you get both a sense of Christmas spirit as well as access to nearly all of the museum. So if you want to catch up on your space shuttle carrier aircraft history, or see a previously flown Falcon 9 rocket first stage, you’re more than welcome to do so. And if you’re just there for the s’mores, hot chocolate, and bright lights, that’s perfectly fine too. As my 14-year-old daughter can attest, there are plenty of great spots to grab a unique selfie.

Galaxy Lights is open daily, except for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, from now through January 2. The hours run from 6 pm to 10 pm CT, and it takes one to two hours to explore the holiday display. I’ve found that if you go during the latter two hours the crowds are significantly less—with little waiting to get inside, and more room to move about the many exhibits. As for weather, if you want mild conditions, this week of Dec. 13 is good. If you want a more winter-like chill in the air, the week of Dec. 20 will serve you better. For ticket information and more, click here. Enjoy the show!

Good morning. The overall forecast for the next week is straightforward. We’ll see abormal heat for two days, and then about a five-day stretch of much more seasonable weather, with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s, and low temperatures in the 40s and 50s. By next Friday, or Christmas Eve, we’ll definitely be warming up, but the forecast for Christmas Day remains uncertain.

I’d like to note one interesting development before moving on to the daily forecast. The US Army Corps of Engineers has announced plans to study the development of a massive underground tunnel to carry floodwaters from inland parts of Houston to Galveston Bay. This is an ambitious plan that is potentially very helpful. But I think there are two important things to note. One, this is not a substitute for a coastal barrier, commonly known as the “Ike Dike.” The proposed tunnel would alleviate inland flooding, that is, heavy rainfall from tropical systems and other events. The coastal barrier would address storm surge flooding. Both inland rainfall and storm surge cause flooding, but they are very different mechanisms that require different solutions.

The other point is that 13 years have elapsed since Hurricane Ike and its storm surge, and Hurricane Harvey is now four years in the past. We simply cannot continue to “study” solutions to the problems highlighted by these storms, as the US Army Corps of Engineers has done with storm surge. We must actually build solutions to prevent their catastrophic effects. With all that said, I’m glad to see this idea get a full blown study.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of warm and partly sunny days, much like we’ve experienced this week. Highs will likely reach the low 80s, and there is the slightest chance of a light shower. Mostly, however, it’s going to be warm and humid, with southerly winds blowing at 10 to 15 mph. Nights remain sticky, with lows dropping only to around 70 degrees in Houston. Both days have a chance to set record high temperatures. Not normal for December.

Saturday

Saturday morning will see more of the same before the arrival of a cold front in Houston brings some relief. The front’s timing has shifted somewhat. It now looks as though will arrive in northwest Houston during the late morning hours, and reach the coast during the afternoon. Showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will accompany and linger after the front, with overall accumulations likely on the order of 0.5 to 1.5 inches. Lows Saturday night will drop to about 50 degrees in the city of Houston, with cooler conditions inland, and a bit warmer near the coast.

Sunday and Monday

These will be a pair of partly to mostly cloudy days, with highs likely peaking in the 50s. Some spotty showers will be possible both days as the upper atmosphere remains somewhat perturbed. Things should finally begin to clear out later on Monday, or Monday evening. Lows will likely bottom out in the low 40s on Monday night, with the potential for upper 30s for some inland areas as skies clear.

The rest of Christmas week

Things stay dry and cool with mostly clear skies through Thursday morning, after which time we’re likely to see highs rebound into the 70s.

Unfortunately, I still don’t have much clarity for you after that time. I’d define Christmas morning as feeling at least somewhat “like Christmas” if the low temperature is 55 degrees or lower. Right now the odds of that are probably 40 percent, or less. But the forecast could still really go any way. At least things look pretty dry, in terms of rainfall. Perhaps Matt will have better answers for you in Friday’s post.

Speaking of the holidays, we’ll maintain a mostly normal schedule for the next two weeks, and in the unlikely event that there is inclement weather we’ll have full coverage. However, both Matt and I will be taking some time off from our regular jobs, and doing a bit of traveling. So if a post is published a little later on some days, that is why.

Good morning, Houston! We are now at the mid-point of December. In the big picture, the forecast is pretty straightforward. After three very warm days, a front arrives to make for a wet and chilly weekend. This colder pattern persists into the middle of next week. And after that? We start warming and waiting to see if another front makes it through before Christmas Day. If not, then Mele Kalikimaka my friends, as it will feel more like Honolulu in winter than Houston.

Wednesday

Modest southerly winds are helping to mitigate the formation of fog this morning, although there are still a few patchy areas around town. Otherwise, we’re going to see partly sunny conditions today, with highs reaching about 80 degrees, or possibly warmer for inland areas. Those winds will continue from the south throughout the day, possibly gusting as high as 20 mph. Some very light, spotty showers will be possible. But rain chances are less than 20 percent. Overnight lows will be warm, only dropping to around 70 in Houston.

Thursday

See Wednesday’s forecast.

Friday

More of the same, with a mix of sunshine and clouds, highs around 80 degrees or a tick warmer, and a pronounced onshore flow of moist air from the Gulf.

Saturday

The timing of the front remains somewhat in question, but most likely it will move through the Houston area between sunrise and around Noon on Saturday. Temperatures will drop into the 60s during the afternoon hours, and lows down near 50 in the city overnight with cloudy skies. On and off rain showers will be possible throughout the day, with accumulations averaging an inch, with some areas seeing more, some less.

Sunday

This will be a mostly cloudy day, with high temperatures likely peaking in the upper 50s. Some scattered showers are possible during the daytime and Sunday night, but we’re not looking at anything too heavy. Mostly, it should just be cloudy and cool. Lows Sunday night should get into the upper 40s for Houston, with colder conditions for outlying areas. Rain chances persist into Monday morning.

Next week

As mentioned, Houston will remain on the cooler and drier side of things through about Wednesday of next week, after which daytime highs are probably going back into the mid-70s, with mild nights. Rain chances, for now, look low next week. So will this pattern persist all the way into Christmas? I still don’t have a definitive answer on that, unfortunately. It all depends on the timing of the next front, which remains uncertain, but now seems a little more likely to arrive just in time for Santa. Yesterday I was predicting a 60 percent chance of no Christmas front, and a 40 percent chance of a front. Today I’m 50-50. One thing is for sure, the probability of snow is the same as that of the Houston Texans making the playoffs.