Houston’s first “real” front of the season is less than 24 hours from pushing through the metro area. So after one more hot and sultry day, Houston will see several days of cooler and drier weather. If you live north of Interstate 10, a couple of nights in the 50s are a possibility. At least somewhat drier air should remain with us through the weekend.

Tuesday

The high temperature on Monday reached 95 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport, and highs will be similar today across the region with sunny skies and light southeasterly winds before the front arrives. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms should reach areas north and west of Houston, such as Katy and Conroe, around 6 to 8 pm. This line will push through the metro area shortly after sunset, and reach the coast by or before midnight. These showers will be advancing from northwest to southeast fairly rapidly, and could bring some briefly heavy rain and lightning. If you have outdoor plans this evening, please have a place to find temporary shelter. Drier air will move in overnight, behind the front.

Wednesday

This is the good stuff. We’ll wake up to temperatures on Wednesday morning generally in the 60s, with much drier air. Winds will be out of the north at 10 to 15 mph, with sunny skies. Highs will get into the low 80s. Lows Wednesday night will probably be the coldest of the week for many areas, dropping into the upper 50s for inland areas, with around 60 in the city of Houston.

Thursday and Friday

One nice thing about this front is that it should have some sticking power. We expect dry and pleasant conditions to continue through the work week, with highs in the 80s, and lows in the 60s for most of the region. Dewpoints should remain below 60 degrees until at least Saturday, which means the air will not feel sticky. Skies will be sunny, with a near zero percent chance of rain.

Saturday and Sunday

At this point it looks like the onshore flow won’t really get going until later Saturday or Sunday, which should allow Houston to enjoy a fairly nice weekend, with highs in the 80s and still enough dry air to make a nice contrast with summer-like weather. Skies will remain mostly sunny, with no rain.

Next week

Our gradual warmup will continue at least into Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. At that point it’s possible we may see temperatures recover to about 90 degrees, and our first real rain chances won’t return until that time. Bottom line: We’ve got nearly a week of fine, early fall weather. I suggest you enjoy it.

Tropics

The Atlantic tropics are popping with activity, but there’s nothing that poses an immediate threat to the Gulf of Mexico or, indeed, any landmasses. The red “X” may eventually become a threat to the Caribbean isles, or it may recurve north before doing so.

A few years ago Dan Reilly, the warning coordination meteorologist at the local National Weather Service, and I were discussing fall cool fronts. The first day it truly felt like fall in Houston should be a holiday, we agreed. Every year since, Space City Weather has designated the first day it will truly feel like “fall” in Houston as Fall Day. This year, that day comes on Wednesday, after a front moves through overnight and brings much cooler and drier air to the region. It may not be an official holiday, but it sure should be one after we survive summer.

Monday

Before we get to the front, however, Houston will experience a little bit more heat. Highs today should reach at least the low 90s, with sunny skies. Rain chances are essentially zero north of Interstate 10, and perhaps 10 to 20 percent closer to the coast. Winds will be light, out of the southwest, at 5 mph. Conditions overnight will be warm and muggy.

Tuesday

This will be another hot, humid, and sunny day in Houston, but it will be the last one for awhile. That’s because a bona fide front will push through Houston. The timing is a bit uncertain yet, but expect a broken line of showers and thunderstorms to reach central Houston perhaps around sunset, and push off the coast during the late evening hours. After this, drier air will move into the region during the overnight hours. Most of the region should wake up Wednesday morning to dewpoints in the 50s.

Fall Day

This will be a fine day, with sunny skies, moderate northerly winds of 10 to 15 mph, and highs in the low 80s. As the sun drops toward the horizon, so too will temperatures. Inland lows likely will reach the upper 50s, with areas closer to the coast staying in the low 60s.

Thursday and Friday

These should be sunny, pleasant days with highs in the low 80s, and overnight lows down around 60 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

We should see some warming over the weekend, but even with mostly sunny skies I don’t think highs will get above the mid- to upper-80s. Dewpoints will remain lower than summertime levels, so while it won’t be cold, it won’t be unpleasantly steamy, either.

Tropics

Call it the Charlie Hustle tropics forecast, with Peter and Rose active in the Atlantic Ocean. Fortunately, neither storm presents a significant threat to any landmasses. Beyond this, the red X off the coast of Africa could very well develop as it moves west across the Atlantic Ocean. This system seems unlikely to be bound for the Gulf of Mexico, however. Overall, in fact threats to the Gulf over the next 10 days are fairly low. I’m not complaining.

We continue to enjoy fairly quiet weather across the region in the wake of Hurricane Nicholas. Today will be no exception, though things get a bit more unsettled this weekend. But the drumbeat regarding our first legitimate autumn cold front is growing louder today. For now at least, it would seem that some very nice weather is on the horizon for the back half of next week. More on that below.

Today

Friday will probably be similar to Thursday in a lot of ways with clouds and sunshine sharing the sky. Yesterday saw upper-70s at Bush Airport compared to mid-80s at Hobby. Today should probably see 90 or better in a lot of locations, provided the sun is out a good bit. Otherwise, look for mid to upper-80s, still warmer than Thursday.

Rain chances are quite slim to none today.

Saturday & Sunday

We sort of settle back into more of a typical late summer pattern this weekend, as Eric’s been noting the last couple days. The coverage of showers and storms expected has wobbled a bit lately, but it looks like we’ll have decent coverage of showers tomorrow and maybe a bit less coverage on Sunday. We’ll have a good bit of humidity and highs in the upper-80s to low-90s depending on cloud cover. Morning lows should be in the 70s.

Early next week

Monday looks pretty good right now with just a chance of a shower or storm but otherwise partly to mostly sunny. Look for morning 70s and afternoon 90s. Tuesday looks similar, though with perhaps a slight nudge up in rain chances.

Cold front update!

On to what should be the good news. Both the GFS & European models are in agreement on a cold front coming into the area on Wednesday. They differ on exact timing and how strong it will be, but they both show it distinctly in their forecasts and ensembles for the most part. Here are the low temperature charts from the 51 Euro ensemble members and the 31 GFS ensemble members. I’ve boxed in the period for next week.

The Euro is at nearly 100 percent agreement on a pretty potent cold front reaching the area, closer to Wednesday morning. The GFS, however looks to be at more like 50 to 55 percent agreement, with most ensemble members not quite as cool as the Euro. But, when you look closer at the GFS, it does bring a strong front south; it just manages to whiff to our east, bringing most cool air into Louisiana, rather than Texas. That same chart above and to the right shows more like 90 percent agreement in a front when you look at it for Lake Charles, which seems a bit odd to me.

I would say there’s a bit of uncertainty right now on the finer details, like whether it’s 60 to 65 or 65 to 70 in the mornings late next week (though I will say that it’s quite tantalizing to see several European ensemble members in the 50s). In terms of getting the front through Houston, that’s looking like an increasingly likely proposition. Assuming that’s the case, expect a period of showers or thunderstorms Tuesday night or Wednesday, followed by mostly sunny conditions for the end of the week. Highs would be in the 80s with low humidity. And again, we’ll see about how cool morning lows go.

Tropics

The Atlantic remains active with two areas still holding at a 70 percent chance of development over the next 5 days. Both are expected to head out to sea.

Some folks will continue to point to Invest 95L (the red area in the central Atlantic) as being concerning, but in order for it to come more west, it would have to remain a disheveled mess and would likely get ripped apart before it got far enough west to be concerning. Oh, and with a cold front likely to get well offshore next week, the western Gulf is protected through at least next weekend. In other words, you can rest easy. No concerns for us.

Have a great weekend!

Good morning. Houston will see one more partly to mostly cloudy day before a string of mostly sunny days. Temperatures will likely reach the low 90s during the coming period, but we’re increasingly confident that some sort of front will make it through our area during the middle of next week. How strong? We’ll have to wait and see.

Thursday

Although Nicholas has dropped below tropical depression strength in Louisiana, we’re continuing to see wrap-around clouds and light northerly winds from the system. This will contribute to another mostly cloudy day, and should help to keep highs in the mid- to upper-80s for most of the area. A little bit of misty rain is possible, but most of us should remain dry. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s.

Friday

We’ll see a mix of sunshine and clouds on Friday, and the return of light southerly winds temperatures will probably nudge up to around 90 degrees. We can’t rule out a passing shower, but any rain should be fairly isolated and fleeting.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should see mostly sunny skies with highs in the neighborhood of 90 degrees. Some showers will be possible as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico increases, but rain chances on both days are probably only about 30 percent now. This should be one of the last truly summer-like weekends of 2021, so if the beach is your thing, do your thing.

Next week

We’ll remain in a summer-like pattern through about Wednesday of next week. After that time it does look like some sort of front will push through, although whether its the “upper 60s and some drier air” kind of front or something more like “60 and unbelievable” is yet to be determined.

Tropics

There’s nothing for the Gulf of Mexico to be concerned about now, or likely for at least the next several days. The end of the tropics season for Texas is near, but we’re not ready to make that call yet.