Up and down, up and down—so will go our temperatures over the next 10 days as Mother Nature vacillates on whether it should feel like winter or spring outside. This is good thing for those who believe variety is the spice of life. We’re also continuing to track the likelihood of rain this weekend, which would be the region’s first meaningful precipitation in about three weeks.

Wednesday

Temperatures are generally starting out in the 50s this morning, and with light winds a few areas of patchy fog have developed. This should not last, and skies will be mostly sunny later today, allowing for temperatures to warm nicely into the mid-70s. Winds will be modest, out of the south and southwest, at 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures tonight will start out moderate, but a cold front will arrive to cool things down. It looks like the front will reach the Interstate 69/Highway 59 corridor around midnight, and push down to the coast between 3 and 6 am. As a result, Houston will be generally in the 40s (inland) to low 50s (near the coast) when you wake up on Thursday. No rain is likely to accompany the front.

Thursday

Conditions will be breezy on Thursday, as northerly air follows the frontal passage. Look for winds gusting up to about 20 mph to go along with sunny skies, and highs likely topping out in the upper 60s. As winds die down overnight, this will set the stage for cold temperatures. I think the urban core of Houston will remain at about 40 degrees, but outlying areas should fall into the 30s. A light freeze is possible for far inland areas, such as College Station.

Friday

This will be a sunny and cool day, with highs around 60 degrees. However as high pressure moves off and winds shift easterly, this will set the stage for warmer weather ahead. Lows Friday night will probably be about 15 degrees warmer than Thursday night.

Saturday and Sunday

Conditions will be quite warm and muggy this weekend, especially for early January. Look for highs in the mid-70s with partly to mostly cloudy skies and plenty of humidity. The onshore flow will also ramp up moisture levels, and this will lead to increased rain chances beginning as early as Saturday morning. This pattern will hold sway until about Sunday afternoon or evening, when the next front arrives. This front may bring additional rainfall with it, and all told I think most areas will average 1 inch or so this weekend, with less for some areas, and more for locations that see some briefly heavy rainfall. Rains will end with the front’s passage, and lows on Sunday night should drop into the upper 40s.

Next week

We’ll see fairly cold conditions next week, with highs in the 50s and 60s, and lows in the 40s and 50s. Another front arrives by the weekend, perhaps Saturday the 14th, to keep things on the cooler side. If you’re running the Houston marathon, my best guess remains chilly start line temperatures of about 40 degrees.

Good morning. The upcoming forecast offers a little bit of something for everyone. There is more cold weather in store, but also some spells of warmer weather. We should also see some measurable rainfall this weekend, which would be the region’s first real precipitation since mid-December.

Tuesday

After a cold start this morning, with a few freezing spots far inland but temperatures mostly in the upper 30s and low 40s, Houston will warm nicely today under the influence of a more southerly flow. Highs will likely top out in the mid-60s, with sunny skies. Easterly winds will turn south, and generally blow at 5 to 10 mph. Skies turn partly cloudy tonight, with lows getting into the low 50s for most areas except the coast, which will be a bit warmer.

Wednesday

This will be a warmer day, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-70s. Expect another mild night with temperatures in the mid-50s.

Thursday

A fairly sharp cold front will drop into the region on Thursday morning, and while the timing remains yet uncertain it should be off the coast by or before noon. There should not be any rain with this front, and skies should remain mostly sunny on Thursday. The influx of northerly air will limit highs to the mid- to upper-60s as winds come out of the north at 10- to 15 mph. Lows on Thursday night will drop to about 40 degrees in Houston, with a light freeze possible for some far inland locations.

Friday

The cold air will be fairly short lived, as winds return from the south on Friday. Expect a pleasant day, with partly sunny skies and highs around 60 degrees. But lows on Friday night will only drop a few degrees, into the low- to mid-50s, as the southerly flow reestablishes itself.

Saturday and Sunday

This warmer pattern will hold sway this weekend, with warm days in the upper 70s, partly to mostly cloudy days, and more humidity. With moist air and low pressure in the vicinity we’ll see healthy rain chances, especially from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Accumulations should range from 0.25 to 1 inch, but there probably will be a wide variance in totals. Rain chances will be best for areas along and east of I-45. A cold front should arrive on Sunday night, some time, to return a drier and colder pattern to the region. Look for several days of highs near 60, and lows in the 40s next week.

Houston Marathon

We’re getting closer to the Houston Marathon, which takes place on Sunday, January 16. Right now it’s really quite early to have any confidence in a forecast a dozen days from now. But given the overall pattern, I think the greatest likelihood is that we see a fairly normal January day, with a temperature in the low 40s at race start, and highs in the 50s or low 60s. The air should be reasonably dry, but it’s way way way too early to have any confidence in such details. I’ll keep an eye on things, and let you know when something more concrete emerges.

Good morning, and Happy New Year! For some perspective, temperatures on Sunday afternoon peaked at 44 degrees in Houston. This was far below the minimum temperature on the the first morning of the new year, when the low temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport bottomed out 75 degrees. Much of the region outside of the city’s urban core, and away from the coast, is seeing a freeze this morning. A light freeze will be possible for areas well inland again tonight, but this morning should yield our coldest weather for awhile.

It’s worth noting that the city’s official station at Bush Intercontinental Airport did record a freeze this morning. This marks the first freezing temperature there since February 20, 2021, the tail end of the Valentine’s Day freeze last year. During that cold spell Houston recorded a freeze seven nights in a row, with the temperature bottoming out at 13 degrees on February 16.

Monday

Skies will be sunny today, with light northerly winds. As a result highs should be able to work their way into the low- to mid-50s. Temperatures tonight should be about 5 degrees warmer than Sunday night, but still rather chilly. As the high pressure system near the surface moves eastward, we’ll begin to see winds shift to come from the southeast by Monday night, and this will begin the process of warming us up.

Tuesday

Highs will accordingly jump back into the mid-60s on Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies, and winds of about 10 mph out of the south. Lows drop into the 50s late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

This should be the warmest day of the week, with highs in the mid-70s and mostly sunny skies. Dewpoints won’t be oppressive like they were in late December, but the air won’t exactly be dry, either. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the upper 50s for most.

Thursday

The forecast for Thursday is highly uncertain, as it’s not clear when the next cold front will push through the area. It could be anywhere from Wednesday night through Thursday night. If it’s the former, highs on Thursday may top out in the 60s, if it’s the latter, then expect mid- to high 70s. We’ll see. This front should be dry, bringing no rain with it. Lows on Thursday night will probably drop to around 40 degrees.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

After a brief cooldown on Friday, with highs perhaps reaching about 60 degrees, a warmer pattern along with a southerly flow should return for the weekend. We’re probably looking at highs in the mid-70s, or thereabouts, on Saturday and Sunday. The days will be partly sunny, but as a low pressure system moves inland from the Gulf of Mexico there will be a decent chance of rain from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Accumulations of a few tenths of an inch of rain are possible closer to the coast, with lesser amounts inland. Another front should arrive later in the weekend, perhaps on Sunday night, to cool things off somewhat for next week.

Through yesterday, the average temperature in Houston (Bush) is 67.5° for the month of December. Adding an expected 83 and, call it 68 today gets us to 67.8° for the month, shattering the record from 1933 by 3.4 degrees. This will also be the widest gap between warmest and second warmest of any month in Houston. Only August comes close, where the difference between the horrific August of 2011 and 2010 was 2.7 degrees. Basically, this December was Houston’s most anomalous warm month on record. There are a number of other stats and nuggets we could share, but we may save that for a separate post. Our spring fling is almost over though, and it’s time to break out the winter clothes.

Today

More of the same. 80s, sun, clouds, some fog this morning. Today’s record high in Houston is 82°, set back in 1974, and that seems likely to be tied or exceeded. The main difference between yesterday and today will probably be that coastal sea fog. Winds may kick up just enough today to dissipate most of it by afternoon. Look for haze and/or mist at times, however.

Saturday morning & early afternoon

Tomorrow will begin like most other days this month: Warm and humid. Look for temperatures at or above 70 degrees to start the day. It will be quite warm through the afternoon with highs pushing back into the 80s again. The 2006 New Year’s Day record of 81° seems destined to be broken.

Saturday late afternoon into Sunday

Our change in seasons will arrive in two pieces. The first will be a cold front on Saturday afternoon. This front will come through and shift winds from onshore to offshore. Onshore winds may actually be a bit stronger ahead of the front, so look for calmer conditions once the front is through. Temperatures may drop off just a few degrees. Additionally, there could be a shower or two but nothing serious.

The second piece will arrive Saturday night. Look for that to hit the northwest suburbs before Midnight and the city and southeast suburbs and coast around Midnight. There won’t be any mistaking this one.

Temperatures will quickly drop from the 60s into the 40s and winds will kick up out of the north, gusting 25 to 30 mph or even a bit stronger at times. By Sunday morning, temperatures will have fallen into the 30s in most spots, with freezing temperatures north and west of Houston and even some upper-20s possible near Huntsville.

For those of you heading off to services or for a walk on Sunday morning, temperatures will be 30 to 40 degrees colder than they were on Saturday morning, and with wind chill values in the 20s, it will feel 50 degrees colder. Bundle up! The day itself should be fine, just windy and cold with highs in the mid-40s.

Monday

Temperatures will drop steadily on Sunday night, and we should see much of the area, save for maybe the city and immediate coast reach the freezing mark by Monday morning.

This will be a pretty standard freeze for the Houston area, the type we usually see several times a winter. Sensitive plants should be protected, particularly outside the city. If you have a sprinkler system, it’s probably also a good idea to have it shut off and drained. Typical winter preps. But as far as significant problems, we shouldn’t see any.

The rest of Monday will offer a transition back to onshore winds and temperatures bouncing back into the 50s. A freeze is unlikely Monday night anywhere in our area. This will be a quick shot of cold.

Rest of next week

Warmer weather will really be noticeable by Tuesday with temperatures warming well into the 60s. On Wednesday we warm into the 70s again. By Thursday or Friday, another, potentially much weaker front is likely to push into the area to cool us back a few degrees. Model guidance suggests another significant warm-up into next weekend before perhaps more sustained seasonably cool weather for the second week of 2022.

Final word

I just want to echo Eric’s sentiment from yesterday. It’s been a great year for us, between, among other things, launching an app, launching a Spanish language site and bringing Maria on board, being honored by the city of Houston, and arguing with each other about whether September or August is worse.

But we recognize that it’s been another rough year for a lot of folks. I am grateful for the doctors and nurses and medical research community that makes Houston a true global hub for medical research and care. Essential workers, restaurant employees, and so many others who have toiled through sickness, closures, and just mean people, thank you as well. My hope is that 2022 will offer a return to stability, both in life and weather. I’m more hopeful for the former than the latter, but either way, we’ll be here for you. Thanks for relying on us as a source of weather information to keep you and your family prepared and informed. It’s a duty and responsibility we take seriously, and we look forward to continuing doing so in 2022, which hopefully marks a return to somewhat more precedented times. Happy New Year!