The summer solstice arrived late on Sunday night, at 10:32 pm CT. The solstice, of course, is the longest day and the shortest night in the Northern Hemisphere, and results from the 23.4-degree tilt in the Earth’s axis and the planet’s rotation around the Sun. The solstice begins a three-month period known as “astronomical summer.”

In Houston, of course, it generally feels summer-like from June through September. Although our days will now slowly begin to grow shorter, due to our proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and a lag in oceanic warming (and cooling), most of our summer heat comes after the longest day of the year.

The following map, shared by Brian Brettschneider on Twitter, shows the the time of the sunset across the United States and Canada on the summer solstice. This is affected both by the solstice as well as time zones that humans have created around the Earth. The area that sees 24 hours of daylight on the solstice, of course, lies above the Arctic Circle.

As for our weather this week, we will experience a couple of more wet and slightly cooler days before high temperatures return into the mid-90s for the second half of this week.

Monday and Tuesday

Our weather over the next couple of days will be driven by a cool front—and we’re using the meteorological definition of a front, because it won’t have too much effect on how things feel out there. This front will act to increase the likelihood of rainfall on Monday, Monday night, and Tuesday morning. I don’t think we’re going to see widespread, heavy rainfall, but some of the showers that develop will be capable of fairly intense rainfall rates. I think much of Houston will see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain, with a few bullseyes of 3 or more inches possible. Our best rain chances will likely come during the overnight hours.

In terms of temperatures, most of us will see highs around 90 degrees for the next two days due to the combination of cloud cover and the front. Will you feel it? If you live inland of Interstate 69/Highway 59, and you go outside on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning, it may feel slightly drier outside.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

For the second half of the week we should see mostly sunny skies as high pressure begins to build over the area. Highs will likely rebound into the mid-90s and we’ll be right back into full-on summer days in Houston, with overnight lows of around 80 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend forecast is a little bit less certain, as yet another front is likely to approach the region. However, this one very likely will stall out before reaching the Houston metro area. Nonetheless it may introduce some clouds and rain chances for the weekend. It does look like Saturday will be mostly sunny, and while there may be some scattered showers, the chances for wider rainfall likely will not come until Sunday. But all of these details will need to be hashed out in future forecasts.

Hi all. I’m jumping in on Father’s Day to say that we are seeing some fairly high atmospheric moisture levels this morning that may, in turn, lead to at least scattered thunderstorms today, if not more widespread storms. This will provide a contrast to the recent string of hot and sunny days Houston has experienced.

The next three days all look fairly wet for the region. Given the higher moisture levels, a disturbed atmosphere, and a weak “cool” front on Monday night and Tuesday, each day should see elevated rain chances. Sunday through Tuesday will each probably have about a 50 to 70 percent chance of rain during the daytime, with lesser odds at night. The better rain chances will come closer to the coast, and for the eastern half of the region.

In terms of three-day accumulations, most of the area will probably see 0.5 to 1.5 inches if rain. However, for areas closer to the coast, and east of Interstate 45, it would not surprise me to see some areas pick up 3 to 5 inches between now and Tuesday night.

It’s not going to be a total washout, by any means. And areas west and north of Houston will likely see a fair bit of sunshine over the next few days. But if you’re heading to the beach to celebrate dad today, you probably should also buy him an umbrella as a gift—just in case.

We’ll return with a full post on Monday morning.

Compared to earlier this week, it certainly feels a little more comfortable, with temperatures ranging from the mid or upper 60s well inland to around 80 degrees at the coast.

We will see another day or so of drier air, helping to keep us relatively comfortable, thanks in part to Potential Tropical Cyclone #3 in the Gulf, which will pass to our east into Louisiana. This farther east track leads to a handful of minor forecast changes this weekend.

Today & Saturday

Both today and tomorrow look fairly uneventful in our area, with a mix of sun and clouds. Yes, there could be a stray shower or two that makes into the Houston region, and there could be a portion of an outer band from PTC3 that grazes eastern fringes of our area. But aside from that, it will just be hot and a bit humid. Look for highs in the low to mid-90s (some isolated upper-90s can’t be ruled out) and lows in the 70s. Humidity will likely increase a bit tomorrow, and the morning will feel less comfortable than yesterday or today has felt.

The big weekend change is that rain chances look higher on Sunday than they do Saturday now.

Sunday

We begin a little more onshore flow on Sunday, which means more humidity. Morning lows in the upper-70s seem more likely here. It also means a better chance at isolated to scattered thunderstorms, as a weak disturbance in the upper atmosphere finds a route into Texas and taps into some of that onshore flow. Not everyone will see rain, but there will likely be at least a few showers or storms around Sunday afternoon. High temperatures will be in the mid-90s.

Monday

Right now, Monday looks like a classic June day in Houston with sun, clouds, high humidity, morning lows in the 70s, daytime highs in the low-90s, and a chance of afternoon thunderstorms.

Tuesday & beyond

By Monday night, an actual cold front will be moving across Texas from north to south. We are unlikely to enjoy the cooler, less humid benefits of said front, but we will likely see scattered to perhaps even numerous showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Locally heavy rain is possible here, and a healthy chunk of the area should see at least some rain. Expect a less hot day Tuesday, with some chance highs don’t get above 90 degrees.

By Wednesday and Thursday, rain chances won’t drop to zero, but they will diminish a bit as the front fizzles and high pressure begins to nose into the area. Look for highs back in the 90s and lows in the mid to upper-70s.

PTC 3 update

Potential Tropical Cyclone #3 continues across the Gulf this morning. To be honest, this is about as healthy as it has looked in its life cycle since it became an area to watch.

There’s a significant blowup of thunderstorms near and north/east of the center. This is why forecasters have been banging the drum regarding heavy rain being the main concern. Whatever the case, we assume we will see Tropical Storm Claudette come of this mess and approach the Louisiana coast tonight between Vermilion Bay and New Orleans.

Locally, no impacts are expected, aside from perhaps slightly rougher surf and stronger than normal rip currents. Please use caution if swimming in the Gulf this weekend.

The main impacts in Louisiana and the Southeast will be from heavy rainfall. About 4 to 8 inches of rain should fall in southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and portions of the Florida Panhandle.

Higher amounts will be possible there, but the system may actually move along fast enough now to prevent major problems. But if your travels take you east of Louisiana this weekend, plan accordingly.

We aren’t expecting significant forecast changes this weekend, so look for our next update, as per usual, on Monday morning.

Good morning. On Wednesday I wrote that it seemed likely the Gulf of Mexico disturbance was going to track east of the Houston region, and now I’m confident that will be the case. As a result, while the Houston region may see some modest rain this weekend, and some higher tides, we should escape significant effects from the tropical system. I’ll discuss this more below.

Thursday

Houston’s high temperature topped out at 97 degrees on Wednesday, and I think we’ll be just a shade lower than that today, with highs generally in the mid-90s across the region. Speaking of shade, you’d better finds some, because skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be light, out of the east. Clear skies may allow temperatures to drop into the mid-70s overnight.

Friday

Friday will start out a lot like Thursday, but as the tropical system begins to lift north into the central and then northern Gulf of Mexico, we may see some rain chances along the coast. Galveston probably has a 40 percent chance of seeing some light showers during the afternoon, with lower chances inland. Otherwise, highs for much of the region will likely be in the mid-90s, with partly to mostly sunny skies.

Saturday and Sunday

The region’s rain chances will probably be highest on Saturday, with perhaps 40 percent coverage of light to moderate showers due to the tropical system. Chances are highest to the east of Interstate 45, where some coastal areas closer to Beaumont and Port Arthur may see 0.5 to 1 inch of rain. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny when it’s not raining. Rain chances are lower on Sunday, probably in the 20 percent range. Look for highs in the low- to mid-90s both days.

Next week

By around Monday, a late season cool front is expected to move into northern Texas. While I don’t think it will bring much dry air to the Houston region, it should bring increased rain chances to our region from about Monday night into early Wednesday. It’s too early to say much about accumulations, but certainly an inch or so of rainfall would not be unwelcome after our recent heat spell. This may also push highs into the low 90s for a few days—also not unwelcome.

Tropics

The disturbance in the Southern Gulf of Mexico remains a blobby mess, but it should begin to get better organized today, and then start to lift northward. All of the reliable model guidance now brings a tropical depression or weak tropical storm toward Louisiana, with a likely landfall late Friday night or on Saturday. As the storm will probably be sheared, its major rainfall will come to its east, likely over New Orleans, and the coastal Mississippi and Alabama regions. I’d expect 5 to 10 inches of rainfall across widespread areas there, with higher local totals. This is definitely something to consider if New Orleans or travel along Interstate 10 is in your plans this weekend. The good news is that the tropical system should move a little faster than previously anticipated, meaning conditions along the Gulf coast should begin to improve by Sunday.