1:45pm CT Monday: Tropical Storm Beta continues to slog toward the Texas coast this afternoon. In its 1pm update, the National Hurricane Center said the storm has weakened this morning, with sustained winds dropping from 50 to 45 mph, and a rise in the storm’s central pressure from 996 to 999 mb. This is another indication of a system losing some of its organization. Beta is still moving toward Texas with a landfall tonight near or south of Matagorda Bay.

Although Beta is weakening—a very welcome trend for a cyclone nearing landfall—it is nonetheless creating some unfortunate impacts on our region’s weather. Let’s talk about coastal surge and rainfall, and then take a look at the forecast for the rest of today.

Coastal surge

There are reports of water covering low-lying areas along the coast, and inland along waterways connected to the Gulf of Mexico, such as Galveston Bay and Clear Lake. Based upon the latest modeling, we believe this morning’s high tide was the worst of the surge our region will see, with this evening’s tide perhaps half a foot lower than conditions observed Monday morning. Conditions should slowly improve on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Rainfall

We have begun to see some bands of moderate to heavy rainfall move into the coast today, particularly in southern Brazoria and Galveston counties. Fortunately, most of these storms have been producing rain at rates of 0.5 to 1.5 inches per hour. (Rates above 2 inches per hour will generally flood streets). The heaviest band of these training storms is now lifting into the Houston metro area, and will be the focus of activity this afternoon. Currently, it looks like these storms may produce 2 to 3 inches of rain total as they slowly progress northward, so it could impact the afternoon and evening commute home. We don’t anticipate more than some street flooding at this point, but please do take care. Should the situation warrant, we will update the site.

Another threat today is tornadoes. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center says a few “brief” tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening, although it is holding off issuing a tornado watch for now. Overall, the environment is not strongly supportive of tornadoes, but we do often see a few in the northeast quadrant of a landfalling storm. Earlier, the National Weather Service issued a tornado warning for an area near Texas City, but a tornado was not confirmed on the ground.

This evening

We will have to continue to watch the progression of Beta’s rain bands this afternoon and evening as the storm moves closer to the Texas coast. However, we do not expect continual rainfall at this time across the area.

Our next update will be posted no later than 8:30 pm CT.

6:55 am CT Monday: Good morning. The overall situation with Tropical Storm Beta remains the same. Coastal regions are seeing very high water levels due to tides, surge, and prolonged easterly winds from Beta. We’re expecting intermittently heavy rain over the next few days in the greater Houston region, but we do not anticipate widespread flooding issues. Before diving deeper into the forecast I wanted to allay any lingering fears about a slow-moving tropical cyclone making landfall south of Houston.

We’ve been saying for days this will not be another “Harvey” for the area due to a variety of factors, including dry air over the state. We realize many of our readers have PTSD after that nightmare storm, and that’s why we created our flood scale messaging. As we have done since Friday, we’re still forecasting a Stage 2 event for the coast, and Stage 1 for inland areas. Rest assured, if another Harvey like-system approaches Texas, we will tell you. We’ll be shouting about a Stage 5 flood from the rooftops. This is not that, however. A radar image of Beta this morning (left) and Hurricane Harvey in 2017 shortly before landfall tells the entire story.

Beta summary

The storm has weakened over night, and now has sustained winds of 50 mph. It is moving slowly to the west, and will likely make landfall along, or south of Matagorda Bay later today or early Tuesday. The storm is continuing to battle moderate wind shear and the entrainment of dry air into its circulation. These factors are unlikely to change much as the storm nears the coast, and the National Hurricane Center anticipates it will remain at its current intensity until landfall. After this time it should slowly weaken as it tracks inland, or along the coast, before exiting to the northeast on Wednesday or Thursday.

Immediate threat

The most pressing problem at the moment is tidal surges along the upper Texas coast and along nearby waterways. Tides are running 4 feet or more above normal along the coast and locations such as Clear Lake, and affecting nearby roadways. Tides will remain high today and tonight before perhaps receding a bit on Tuesday, and likely considerably more on Wednesday. Take care on low-lying roads.

Rainfall potential

Due to the aforementioned dry air, we do not expect prolonged periods of heavy rainfall across most of the area, however we cannot rule out some training rainfall in isolated areas. Between now and Wednesday, our best guess remains that areas south of Interstate 10 will generally see 2 to 6 inches of rainfall, with areas north seeing 1 to 4 inches. However we probably will end up seeing some 10-inch bullseyes over the region. There may be some spotty flooding associated with this, but for the most part our area’s bayous can handle these kinds of rains. We’ll remain vigilant for any changes to this forecast.

Winds

Winds over the area likely reached their maximum extent early this morning—Galveston Fishing Pier reported a gust of 49 mph shortly after midnight—and should gradually wane later today. As we’ve been stating, Beta is a not a significant wind threat.

Weather ahead

Both Monday and Tuesday will see a high chance of rain, as bands of rainfall from Beta move onshore. Some training will be possible, but there also should be breaks between rainfall. Our biggest concerns for heavy rainfall are in Brazoria and Galveston Counties, where roads near the coast may already be submerged. Please do not drive into high water today. Highs likely will range from the upper 70s to low 80s. It’s worth noting that Sunday’s high temperature of 78 degrees was Houston’s coolest day since May 9th.

Wednesday should be somewhat of a transition day as Beta lifts away, to the northeast. We probably will see some trailing showers, but the threat of very heavy rainfall should have ended by then.

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday

The second half of the week should see the return of sunshine and, accordingly, highs in the 80s or low 90s. It will be a good time for the region to dry out

Cold front?

Our best global models indicate that a reasonably strong cool front will push into Houston early next week, perhaps around next Monday or Tuesday. It’s still a long way off, but the signal for this front is reasonably strong—we’re hoping to be able to celebrate Fall Day around before the end of the month, when nighttime temperatures in Houston fall to 65 degrees or cooler. So, fingers crossed!

Our next post will come no later than 2:30pm CT Monday.

2:30 pm CT Sunday: Our post this morning was sour on Beta. Maybe we trash talked it too much. I don’t know. What I do know is that it looks much healthier than I expected 5 to 6 hours ago, and it’s conceivable that Beta is at least making an attempt to form into a hurricane — temporarily. We still feel that despite the changes in the near-term, the overall forecast ideas we presented earlier today still hold. The area most likely to perhaps see some forecast changes because of what Beta is doing right now would be the Matagorda to Freeport area, which could see some slightly stronger winds or slightly higher surge if Beta does indeed strengthen a bit further.

Beta intensifying?

According to the 1 PM National Hurricane Center advisory, Beta still had 60 mph maximum sustained winds, mainly north and east of the center. The reconnaissance aircraft that sampled Beta this morning found ample support for these winds. But over the last 3 hours or so, Beta has clearly begun a burst of intensification.

Beta actually looks like a reasonably competent tropical cyclone now. In fact, if you look at radar, you can see a nascent eye-like feature developing. That doesn’t make it a hurricane, but it does mean that it has organized itself, perhaps feeling a brief pause in shear or dry air and the very warm Gulf water it sits over.

My guess is that Beta is a strong tropical storm at the moment. But as it approaches the coast, a wall of dry air awaits its arrival. It will be tough to keep that dry air out of the circulation. And the expectation will remain that Beta begins to weaken as it approaches land. That has been the hypothesis since day one, and that still holds true today. The only way that changes is if Beta can insulate its inner core enough from the drier air that is waiting. That’s always a tough call, so we want to continue watching it, but the expectation is that dry air will begin to take a toll on this core later today or sometime tonight.

We discussed our wind forecast expectations in the morning update, and those are unchanged at this time.

Sunday rain

For much of the Houston area, rain has been falling this afternoon, heavy at times. Totals have generally been one inch or less.

You can see the outer bands of Beta with some heavier rain indicated in yellow on the loop above. This initial wave of rain should taper off a bit later today, but we will likely continue to see gusty showers or even some thunderstorms at times into tonight.

Total rainfall forecast

NOAA has updated their rainfall forecast for the event total, and they have indeed brought values down a little bit further. It looks like they shaved off about 1 inch in Houston to as much as 3 or 4 inches Galveston. Granted, some rain has already fallen, but not as much as has been removed. So, some good news there.

As we’ve been stating, we don’t want folks to just assume this is a non-event; you should remain vigilant in the days ahead. There will be periods of heavy rainfall. But as far as major, widespread flooding, we do not see that scenario as being likely at this time. Still, it may be good to take sensible precautions if you live in a typically flood prone area, particularly with respect to street flooding, just to be safe. In tonight’s update, we’ll offer some thoughts on how Monday’s rainfall may play out.

Marine impacts

We covered this in depth earlier this morning as well. At Galveston, at the railroad bridge near Tiki Island, we saw about 4 foot water levels this morning. Expect that to be about a foot or so higher tonight and end up in the 5 to 6 foot range.

This will cause widespread moderate coastal flooding along the entire coast and bayfronts as well. Expect that to continue much of tonight and Monday morning, with only a slight drop in tides Monday afternoon, followed by a similar peak in tide levels tomorrow night before things subside. This will be aggravated by 8 to 12 foot seas and higher waves offshore.

That’s all for now. Our next update will be posted no later than 9 pm CT on Sunday evening.