This week has been a good week to dry out a bit. And we have needed that badly. Today should be our fourth or fifth straight mostly dry day, something we haven’t been able to string together since basically early May. As we go through the weekend, most of us will remain dry, but those typical summer rain chances will creep back into the forecast slowly.

Today & Saturday

The next two days will be partly to mostly sunny and hot as high pressure remains locked in control. Look for highs in the low to mid-90s and lows in the 70s. It will feel like 100° to 105° at times when you factor in the humidity, and a handful of spots could feel even a bit hotter.

We like to say that we’re used to heat here in Houston, but these first days of heat index values this hot can always tax you just a bit more than usual. Try to take it easy outdoors, drink plenty of water, and check on any elderly or vulnerable family, friends, and neighbors.

Sunday through Tuesday

While rain chances look to be nil through Saturday, we have to mention the chance on Sunday afternoon. As high pressure begins revving up in the Western U.S. (Phoenix expected to hit 115° or hotter next week), a boundary off to our north and east will slide back toward southwest Louisiana and East Texas. With our area sort of on the periphery of this high pressure, we could see the Gulf open back up a bit next week and the chance of showers and storms re-enter the picture. The GFS model forecast of the upper pattern on Monday evening is shown below.

Rain chances will be highest north and east of Houston on Sunday and then anywhere in the area on Monday or Tuesday. Widespread heavy rain isn’t expected, but isolated downpours could be locally heavy. Some areas will see nothing, while others could see an inch or two. Outside of the rain chances, it will be hot and humid with highs again in the 90s and lows in the 70s. Those nighttimes may feel just a little extra uncomfortable next week.

Late next week & tropics

The forecast heading into late next week will begin to see confidence drop off, as we introduce the potential for a tropical disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico. I would expect to see the National Hurricane Center begin to include this area on their 5-day tropical outlook over the weekend. Modeling implies at least a 50 percent chance we get some kind of tropical low (call it an “invest” or depression-level type system), with about a 20 percent chance of a tropical storm and minimal chance of a hurricane.

Nothing eye-popping here, but certainly some continued, if not growing support for a tropical system of some sort. Timing-wise, whatever does happen would probably approach Texas through Louisiana on Friday or Saturday of next week.

It may feel too soon to talk about a legitimate tropical system in the Gulf, but it is coming up on mid-June, and hurricane season is definitely underway. While there is certainly the potential for impacts, at this stage in the game, I don’t see anything overly alarming about this system. As always, that could change, but for now this is something to be aware of, not worried about. Check back in with us this weekend, as I will have a more detailed post on everything we know about this specific system tomorrow or Sunday.

In the meantime, the expectation for later next week should be continued minor to moderate rain chances Wednesday, gradually escalating as we get toward the weekend. We could have marine and wind impacts if a tropical system does indeed develop, but it’s far too soon to say anything specific about that.

Again, look for more about this system, probably Sunday morning. Meanwhile, keep cool!

Good morning. I want to thank you for all your lovely remembrances about Tropical Storm Allison in the comments here, and on Facebook yesterday. For me, too, it is difficult to believe it was 20 years ago. And after the floods, those were the worst mosquitoes I have ever seen in Houston, and that’s saying something!

Houston’s forecast is pretty straightforward from now through most of the weekend. We’re going to experience a lot of sunshine, and our warmest weather of the year as temperatures stay in the mid-90s for much of the region away from the coast. Rain chances will remain near zero until later on Sunday, and most of the region probably will stay dry until the early or middle part of next week when the tropics may, or may not, intervene.

Thursday

The combination of high pressure expanding northward into the region, and a capped atmosphere, should prelude any shower activity today across Houston. Skies will see a mix of clouds and sunshine as highs push into the low- to mid-90s across the region with light southerly winds. Nighttime temperatures will probably drop into the upper 70s away from the coast.

Friday and Saturday

As high pressure expands across the region, these will be hot and sunny days, with highs in the mid-90s for almost everyone by the immediate coast. Lows will be warm, but at least not in the 80s for most, as can happen later in the summer.

Sunday and Monday

High pressure may recede to the west, and this could open up shower chances for some areas on the eastern side of Houston. But any showers that develop will be short-lived, and frankly I expect most of the area will probably remain dry on these days, with mostly sunny skies and warm conditions in the mid-90s.

Next week

Some clouds will return later next week, and this should help to moderate temperatures slightly, and bring back a chance of sea breeze-driven showers during the afternoon hours. Whether these conditions persist for all of next week will depend on the evolution of a tropical system that may form in the southern Gulf of Mexico next week, as discussed below.

The tropics

If you were to only look at the operational runs of the European and GFS models this morning, you’d see a tropical depression of some sort forming in the Southern Gulf of Mexico late Thursday or early Friday of next week. Both of these models then bring a depression or tropical storm northward, toward Texas and Louisiana, about nine days from now. This would lead a keen observer to think that we may see some tropical weather, particularly in the form of higher rain chances, toward the end of next week. You might be concerned.

However, and I can’t stress this enough, the global models have been waffling all over in their solutions for this system. Moreover, there is not all that much support for a tropical storm forming in the ensembles, or moving that far north—it seems just as likely that if a depression forms it will remain bottled up in the Southern Gulf of Mexico. And finally, we’re talking about forecasting a system more than a week from now, when we would expect there to be large errors in the models. Given their inconsistency from run to run, we’re filing this under “Something to watch, but not really be concerned about at this time.” We will, of course, keep you updated as needed.

Thanks to persistent rainfall, we’ve started the month of June cooler than normal in the Houston region. The average temperature, through yesterday, is running 1 to 2 degrees below normal for most of us. But will that trend hold?

First, a word on what we mean by “summer.” There are various definitions of summer. Meteorologists define it as June through August. If we’re going by the solstice, summer runs from June 20 this year to September 22. For a practical Houstonian, I think a good definition of summer is June through September, as that’s the hottest time of year, and the period when we’re most concerned about tropical weather. So for this post, we’ll be looking at the period of June through September.

June outlook

Models are fairly consistent in forecasting a cooler than normal, and wetter than normal June. (Note these seasonal forecasts were released on June 1, so they’re not “cheating” by taking into account the weather to start the month). Given our slightly cooler and definitively wetter start to June, and the potential return of wetter and cooler weather during the second half of next week, I think it’s safe to say these forecasts will verify.

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July, August, and September

The question in my mind, then, is what comes after June? According to NOAA, the broader outlook beyond June sees Houston reverting to a more typical summertime pattern. The precise forecast calls for an average temperature for Houston and surrounding areas of 82.3 degrees, about 0.4 degree above normal. NOAA predicts an 80 percent chance of near normal, or above normal temperatures for July, August, and September. (Sorry, there’s less than a 3 percent chance of a substantially cooler than normal summer).

In terms of precipitation, the forecast calls for 15.0 inches of rainfall, which is pretty much right on normal. So, at this time, there is no expectation of a drought. As always, a single hurricane or tropical storm could completely wreck this precipitation forecast, so please take it with a grain of salt.

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What should you take away from this? First of all, it’s great news that we’re probably not looking at an oppressively hot and dry forecast for this summer. No one wants to see a repeat of the summer of 2011 heat and drought any times soon. In the bigger picture, however, seasonal forecasts are nothing more than a very general guide. It’s still going to be hot this summer, and we’ll need to remain vigilant for any tropical weather.

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Do you know where you were 20 years ago this morning? I was slowly walking north along T C Jester Boulevard, waist deep in water from an overflowing White Oak Bayou. Tropical Storm Allison had returned the night before, deluging the city, particularly central regions near the Texas Medical Center, and east Houston. I had been caught unawares, with some friends at a Bob Schneider concert on Washington Avenue. The rains were so loud we heard them pounding on the roof, over the rock and roll music. After leaving the concert early I’d been unable to get home, across the raging river that was Interstate 10. So I parked my car on a high median and tromped around Montrose all night. The next morning as the waters receded a bit, I retrieved my vehicle and drove to Interstate 610 North. But again, I had to park my car outside my neighborhood as Oak Forest was flooded. So I slogged up T C Jester toward my street, looking at flooded homes, marveling but dismayed at what had happened. It all seemed otherworldly. This was my introduction to flooding in Houston, and I vowed to never be surprised by such an event again. I began writing about weather more for the Houston Chronicle, and eventually became a meteorologist. The rest is history—but I will never forget Allison and I suspect, if you live in Houston, neither will you.

Wednesday

We need not worry ourselves about flooding this week. A few very light showers will be possible this morning, but anything that forms will be scattered and fleeting. Winds will be light, out of the south. Some sunshine will break through the clouds this afternoon as temperatures rise into the low 90s. Tonight will be warm and muggy. Those dewpoints in the upper 70s are why your glasses are fogging up, or why even a short walk through the parking garage is pretty miserable.

Thursday and Friday

Both of these days will be warm, with highs in the low- to mid-90s. Thursday will be partly if not mostly cloudy, but Friday should be mostly sunny.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should see more sunny skies and highs in the mid-90s. It’s gonna be warm, y’all, so take care outside during the warmest part of the day. Some very slight rain chances return Sunday afternoon and evening as the high pressure system retreats, but for now I’m anticipating that we’re all going to stay dry.

Next week

The start of next week looks to be partly sunny, with at least some slight to moderate rain chances. The bigger question is what happens after that due to unsettled weather. A dying front may bring some rain chances southward, or we may see the influence of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. More on that below.

Tropics

The main global models are continuing to suggest that a low pressure system may form in the southern Gulf of Mexico next week, perhaps in the Tuesday to Thursday time frame. There is now modest agreement that something tropical is going to happen. The European model’s ensemble system, for example, says there is at least a 25 percent chance of a tropical storm forming in the western Gulf of Mexico during the second half of next week.

As for what develops after this, or whether the system tracks into Mexico, Texas, or further eastward into the northern Gulf of Mexico coast, it’s really difficult to say anything. Most, but not all, of the model guidance keeps this system at tropical storm strength or below. For now, this is something to keep an eye on because forecast models are going to be all over the place. When we can say more, we will.