We just wanted to give a quick update today on the concerns regarding severe weather. We noted yesterday that there was still some uncertainty in details for today. The majority of the area experienced a really, really nice morning. As we march through the afternoon hours, showers or sprinkles are likely to begin developing. Per the National Weather Service and after looking at some near-term model data myself, it’s clear that the Houston area is in a “capped” environment this afternoon. We talk about the cap often, and basically that’s what helps Houston frequently avoid some of the more ballistic severe weather events that occur off to our north and west. So, assuming that the cap is likely to hold through the afternoon, we shouldn’t see much more than a few showers.

The exception to this could be north of I-10, farther from the Gulf and more likely to see the cap erode enough to allow for some heavier showers or storms late this afternoon or evening.

So, with all that in mind, you can see the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook here. The risk for severe weather generally will go up as you go north and west of the Houston metro area. The highest risk through this evening is probably along or northwest of a line between Crockett, College Station, and La Grange. That’s not to say we couldn’t see severe storms pop before midnight farther south and east; it just doesn’t seem super likely right now. So, keep tuned into the weather, but we aren’t real worried right now.

Overnight

Things do change a bit overnight. We enter into a slightly better and more supportive environment for thunderstorms to develop. But even then, I am still seeing some evidence of “capping” in the models over Houston. I think the general rule of thumb will be that we’ll see scattered showers and storms overnight. Most should be under control and many of us won’t see much of anything. As you go north and west of Houston, the chance that one or two of those storms could become severe increases. I would really watch the area west of San Antonio toward Del Rio closely tonight for potential of some pretty significant storms capable of producing large hail or tornadoes during the late evening and early overnight hours.

Those storms west of San Antonio are likely to congeal into a line of storms and move east along and north of I-10 overnight, arriving in the Houston area sometime around or after sunrise tomorrow morning. The main concern as those pass would be strong, gusty winds, but the chance of an embedded tornado is not zero. Again, the rule will be that the farther north you go, the more likely you see stronger storms. Some areas south of Houston may not even see much of anything overnight and Sunday morning. But the time we should be paying closest attention is probably from 5 or 6 AM through 9 AM or so.

Easter Sunday

Once the showers pass off to our east on Sunday morning, we should see rapid clearing of skies by midday. Winds are going to begin to crank out of the west at 15 to 20 mph, with higher gusts, especially over the bays and near the coast. Temperatures will surge into the middle or upper-80s as humidity plummets. I wouldn’t rule out 90° tomorrow either for some folks. A windy, hot Easter afternoon.

The cold air arrives Sunday night, and by Monday morning we’ll be back in the 50s, struggling to get to 70 degrees Monday afternoon. More on that Monday.

Southeast severe weather

A quick PSA from us: While we aren’t expecting a lot of significant severe weather in our area tomorrow morning, there is a decent chance that this will be a very serious severe weather outbreak to our east. From northern Louisiana through much of Mississippi and Alabama into Georgia, and possibly Tennessee and the Carolinas, the potential exists for a significant tornado or severe weather outbreak tomorrow and tomorrow night into Monday morning.

A moderate risk (4 out of 5) is in place for tomorrow’s activity across Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. This could be upgraded to a high risk tomorrow if confidence increases in a potential tornado outbreak. If you have friends or relatives living east of here in any highlighted yellow, orange, or red area on the map above, please make sure they’re following the weather situation in their local area.

Last night was quite active in parts of the area. In other parts of the area? Yeah, it felt like a flop.

Rain totals were quite erratic. Southern areas saw low amounts. Northern areas saw variable amounts. A gage just east of IAH Airport between Will Clayton Parkway and the Beltway along Garners Bayou nearly received 3″ of rain. But that was very much the exception yesterday. Rain totals elsewhere were less than a quarter inch in many places like Tomball, Cypress, Katy, and Sugar Land. The Woodlands saw a pretty good storm, but even there, it moved fast enough that rain totals were generally under an inch.

Severe weather was not really an issue in the Houston area either. Most reports yesterday came from the Brazos Valley and back west toward Austin and even those were few.

Anyway, with that in the rear-view mirror, we can start talking about the next round.

Today

First off, today looks quiet. We will have clouds for the bulk of the day, but it will feel refreshing after yesterday’s record heat (91° at Hobby was a new record, 91° at Bush fell a degree short). Look for highs mostly in the 70s today. It will also be a good bit breezy at times with winds out of the east or northeast around 15 mph with higher gusts, especially over the bays and Gulf.

Saturday through Sunday morning

For Saturday, morning, lows will be in the low-60s or even upper-50s, but temperatures will rebound into the middle 70s through the day. An approaching warm front will send humidity up through the day as well.

The biggest question on Saturday revolves around rain and thunderstorms. Let’s work through this in order of likely outcomes. Scattered showers are likely Saturday morning and afternoon. Many of us may not see rain, but some of us will. Models differ in opinion on where rain will arrive, with a couple suggesting coastal areas and Houston will see a good deal of showers tomorrow morning. Others keep those areas mainly dry and focus development off to the north and west of Houston. We will call it scattered showers and go from there. A thunderstorm is also a good possibility too. For the most part, we do not expect significant severe weather Saturday morning or afternoon in Houston.

Severe weather on Saturday afternoon will probably begin in Hill Country or west of San Antonio toward Del Rio and the Rio Grande Valley.

Heading into Saturday night, with a warm front in the neighborhood and ample moisture in place with a strong disturbance approaching, that’s typically a recipe for thunderstorms to develop. There are still a lot of questions as to exactly how Saturday night is going to play out. There should be strong to severe thunderstorms in Central Texas moving into East Texas, especially north of I-10. We could see additional development of storms ahead of that off the Gulf. At this time, that looks more concerning east of the Houston area, more into Louisiana. But with a good bit of uncertainty still in play and a Sunday severe weather outlook that is still pretty aggressive nearby, I don’t want to rule anything out at this point.

Bottom line on Saturday night/Sunday early morning: Expect showers and potential for some thunderstorms. Some severe weather is possible, but odds may be highest north and east of Downtown Houston. Eric or myself will keep you posted this weekend if things get more serious.

There will be a couple boundaries pushing through Houston on Sunday. The boundary with storms should push out, ending the rain by 10-11 AM or so. The first cold front will follow around 12-2 PM or so. That will flip winds out of the west, and they should increase as well back to the 15 to 20 mph range, with higher gusts.

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Good morning. Confidence is increasing in the potential for severe weather this afternoon and evening in Houston. The primary threats from this will be strong thunderstorms, and the potential for large hail and downbursts. The chances for hail and damaging winds are better for the western half of the metro area.

Thursday

Skies are mostly cloudy this morning, with temperatures in the 70s. Clouds will remain as highs work their way into the upper 80s this afternoon. Storms are likely to get organized off to the west and north of Houston late this afternoon, and shift into the metro area from about 5pm to 10pm tonight. While most of the region probably will get around 1 inch of rain, or less, these storms have the potential to pretty quickly drop 3 or more inches in some locations. Therefore it is possible we will see some brief street flooding later this evening. The front should exit off the coast, along with the heavier rainfall, by or before midnight.

Friday

A few light showers may be possible Friday morning before sunrise, but for the most part we can probably expect mostly cloudy skies transitioning to some sunshine during the afternoon hours. With forecast highs in the mid-70s and lower humidity, this could turn into a fairly nice spring-like day. Which is good, because Saturday probably won’t be so nice.

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I was pleasantly surprised to be wrong on Tuesday night. I expected mostly cloudy skies to preclude local sightings of the full Moon—dubbed a supermoon by some because it is the closest full Moon of 2020, about 7 percent larger than a regular full Moon. However skies for the first couple of hours after sunset were clear, affording an amazing view of our heavenly companion. I hope you were able to enjoy it as well.

Wednesday

Skies are mostly cloudy this morning, with warm temperatures in the mid-70s. A few very scattered, light showers are possible before noon, but we should see some partial clearing of our skies this afternoon. This, in concert with a strong southwesterly flow aloft, will bring the region’s warmest day of the week. Depending on how much sunshine we see, highs will range from the mid-80s to low-90s across the region. Clouds should build again during the overnight hours, with another warm night in the 70s.

Thursday

This has the potential to be a more dynamic day, with an approaching cold front. This front, in concert with a disturbed upper atmosphere, will bring a healthy chance of showers to the region, along with a slight chance of severe thunderstorms and possibly hail. In terms of timing, my best guess right now is the afternoon through Thursday night, but hopefully we’ll get some clarity on this over the next 24 hours. In any case, Thursday will be cloudy, with highs in the 80s. The front arrives during the overnight hours.

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