This is a pretty easy forecast for the region, and as there’s not much to say, we’re not going to say much. The prevailing pattern remains the same, with a ridge of high pressure anchored generally over the four corners region. For the next five or six days, this overall pattern does not change, with the ridge likely slowly moving north, and then a bit west. Houston lies on the eastern edge of this high, but we’ll feel enough of its influence to preclude all but isolated to scattered showers. In short, we’re going to see typical August weather for awhile.
Note the position of the high pressure system over southern New Mexico, Texas, and Arizona today. (Weather Bell)
Tuesday
Today will be mostly sunny, with highs in the low 90s near the coast, and upper 90s for inland areas. If you’re far enough west or north of Houston, highs may flirt with the 100s. Winds will remain very light, at about 5mph out of the south, providing no relief during the afternoon. Rain chances will be slight, at 10 to 20 percent for the region. Overnight lows will be warm and humid.
Wednesday and Thursday
More of the same.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
The overall pattern does not change much, but as atmospheric moisture levels rise a bit, we may see slightly better rain chances in the mix. Forecast models also indicate this is when temperatures may reach their warmest—with the potential for 100-degree weather creeping southward into the Houston metro area—so expect plenty of heat and humidity to go along with any scattered showers.
By Sunday the high has moved to Arizona, Utah, and Nevada. (Weather Bell)
Next week
By next week the high should continue to move west, and this may open the door to a more disturbed atmosphere with better rain chances. This probably will begin around Tuesday or so, but we’re not making any guarantees.
Good morning and welcome to a new week. There remains little exciting to say about our region’s weather as this week will feel like Groundhog Day, with conditions each day more or less like the last. Sure, a few areas may see a stray shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon hours, but for the most of us, it will be hot and mostly sunny. The good news remains that, one does not really enjoy the weather during August in Houston—one survives it. And given that we are unlikely to face triple-digit heat or widespread floods over the next week, it is difficult to complain too much.
Highs on Monday will definitely feel like August in Texas. (Pivotal Weather)
Monday
Houston remains on the periphery of a high pressure system anchored to our west, and this should both prevent temperatures from getting too hot, while also allowing for a few sea breeze showers to develop during the afternoon hours and move inland. Look for high temperatures in the low 90s along the coast, with temperatures in the mid- or upper 90s for far inland areas. Light, southerly winds will offer little relief. Nor will nighttime temperatures. With lows of only 80 degrees last Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, Hobby Airport tied record for overnight heat and we should remain nearly as warm.
Tuesday and Wednesday
This will be a pair of mostly sunny days, with high temperatures in the mid-90s, along with more warm nights. Again we may see a few coastal showers develop during the afternoon, and progress inland.
There should not be any real surprises about the overall weather pattern over the next several days, as standard summer fare looks to be the rule for the Houston area.
Today
Friday might be the best opportunity for us to not see rain over the next week. Those rain chances certainly are not zero today, but any activity is expected to be minor and isolated. Sunshine should rule, with hot temperatures peaking in the mid-90s, give or take.
Over the next several days, look for peak afternoon heat index values in the 103° to 106° range. This map shows the forecast for 4 PM Friday. (Weather Bell)
Heat index values could push 105° at times, a theme that will continue through the weekend.
Weekend
The weather this weekend should be fairly typical for summer with sun, clouds, highs in the 90s, lows in the 70s, and a requisite 20 to 30 percent rain chance each day. Chances may be slightly higher Sunday over Saturday, but it’s possible you could see a passing downpour on either or both days.
Next week
I believe Monday has a decent chance at being very similar to today, with mainly sunshine and mid-90s. Tuesday through Thursday should see a bit of a “weakness” open in the upper level weather pattern over Texas that is conducive for more showers and storms to develop. However, this may skew to the east of Houston, meaning rain chances next week look higher in Baytown or Beaumont than they do in Katy or Cypress. Still, expect to at least hear some thunder in the area at times, with sun and clouds and some passing showers otherwise. Highs will be again in the 90s, with lows likely in the 70s.
Rain totals look minimal over the next week or so, although there will be a couple localized spots that could register an inch or two with a slow moving downpour. (Pivotal Weather)
Total rainfall over the next week will be low on average, with some folks likely seeing no rain at all. Others may pick up an inch or two in isolated spots as a slow moving downpour passes. The takeaway here is that we don’t see any sort of organized, significant rain chances through at least the middle of next week.
The tropics look quiet through early next week. (NOAA)
The National Hurricane Center’s 5-day outlook map is nice and blank this morning; good news for sure. The next item to watch may or may not develop, but it would likely appear on our radar by midweek next week. We have talked about the expectation that things will rev up later this month, so let’s enjoy the quiet now. Worth noting, NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook was revised yesterday, and like Colorado State’s the day prior, it calls for a very, very active close to hurricane season.
For those of you scoring at home, that would be 10 to 16 additional tropical storms, 5 to 9 additional hurricanes, and 3 to 6 major hurricanes between now and November.
It’s important to understand what these seasonal outlooks are not predicting: A direct hit on Texas. Yes, that certainly could happen again, but we have seen seasons in the past that have been extremely active and spare Texas. Take 1995 for example. It was the 5th most active season on record (based on Accumulated Cyclone Energy), and yet Texas was only impacted by Tropical Storm Dean, a minor flood event. I remember 1995 well because I was a 13 year old weather weenie walking around with a t-shirt that had every storm plotted on the back. The Caribbean Islands were raked that season, but the western Gulf was spared (the eastern Gulf took a late season hit from Opal in Florida). Most of the storms in 1995 were “fish” storms that recurved north and northeast in the open Atlantic. I’m not going to tell you that this year will behave that way; we just don’t know. But I know a lot of folks see these forecasts and fret, justifiably so. We are not thrilled by the long-term signals of high activity either, but there are no guarantees in weather. Eric touched on this thoroughly on Wednesday. Hurricanes are a part of life on the Gulf Coast, so your best antidote to fear is preparedness. That’s where our mindsets should be right now.
Good morning. The ongoing weather forecast remains more or less the same, with hot, but not too hot weather, and the potential for isolated to scattered rain showers most days. This is basically what August is like when there is no dominant ridge of high pressure overhead, or a low pressure system moving in from the Gulf of Mexico.
Thursday
Skies today will be mostly sunny, allowing highs to rise into the mid-90s. As high pressure strengthens in the region we don’t anticipate much in the way of rainfall, although it is possible a few stray showers may develop east of the city. Winds will be light, out of the southeast at 5 or 10 mph later today. Low temperatures will fall into the mid-70s for inland areas tonight, while remaining near 80 degrees along the coast.
It will be August-hot for most of Texas on Thursday. (Pivotal Weather)
Friday
With the ridge firmly in control, we anticipate this being a hot and sunny day with highs in the mid-90s and almost no chance of rain.
Saturday and Sunday
The forecast for the weekend again calls for partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs in the mid-90s. However, slightly better rain chances enter the forecast due to a slight atmospheric disturbance that may push across the region. For most this probably won’t have too much effect, but it will nudge rain chances each day up to about 30 percent. They are most likely to develop during the afternoon hours.
