For those that enjoy Houston-style winter weather, it’s been a treat with a few exceptions over the last few weeks. We’re going to get more of that through next week beginning with the first in a series of fronts later today.

Today

It’s a quiet start this morning with just some clouds around for most. A few sprinkles or showers could develop by late morning. We then expect to see some kind of broken line of showers and storms develop ahead of our first cold front, and press through the Houston area beginning around early afternoon north and west of Houston, and by late afternoon south and east. It appears as though some degree of a “cap” is in place today, which may limit shower and storm development for a time, especially along and south of I-10. However, as the line of showers pushes in, some stronger storms are possible (especially to the north), and the Storm Prediction Center has us in a “marginal” risk of severe weather, the lower-end of the scale.

We don’t expect widespread severe weather, and it will likely be very much the exception rather than the rule, with gusty winds being the main threat.

Showers should end this evening, with partial clearing tonight. Temperatures will top off in the 70s this afternoon, dropping back into the 50s tonight.

Saturday

Nice weather should be the rule for most of us tomorrow. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies to develop, although clouds may try to linger, especially south and east of the city for a time. But for most folks, we think Saturday looks good. It’ll be a bit cooler with highs generally in the mid or upper-60s, perhaps a bit cooler north and west. Winds don’t look too bad behind tonight’s front, so expect north to northwest winds of 5 to 15 mph or so, though perhaps a touch stronger over Galveston Bay and the Gulf.

Sunday

Front number two will be the story for Sunday. Look for scattered showers and storms beginning as early as Sunday morning. Showers and storms should become more numerous through the day, ending around evening. This would be especially true south or east of Highway 59/I-69 we think. Not that areas north and west won’t see rain, but it looks a little less impressive there than to the east. It now appears that Sunday’s front may be the more aggressive one over our area, so if you’re looking to do something outdoors, Saturday is your day.

Total rainfall from the two fronts this weekend will likely add up to about a half-inch to an inch in most of the area. Some locations south and west of Houston may see a bit less and others north and east perhaps a bit more.

Sunday’s temperatures will start in the 50s and peak in the 60s or low-70s. Look for winds to pick up Sunday night to 10 to 20 mph out of the north, with gusts up to 30 to 35 mph over the bays and Gulf.

Monday and Tuesday

Clouds may linger into Monday behind Sunday’s front, giving it a real wintry feel. We will start with lows in the low-40s. Expect highs in the 50s with gradual clearing. If clouds do not clear by Monday afternoon, however, it’s possible we do not see high temperatures get to 50 degrees in spots. Chilly!

Tuesday looks great, however. Look for skies to become mostly sunny with a cool start. We’ll warm from the low or mid-40s into the low or mid-60s.

Wednesday and beyond

A third cold front is likely to push through the region Tuesday night or early Wednesday, ushering in another shot of cool, dry air. This one will lack moisture, so we don’t expect rain. We will see lows on Wednesday and Thursday mornings in the 30s or low-40s. Freezing conditions seem unlikely at this time. High temperatures will only get into the 50s Wednesday and maybe 60-ish on Thursday as it stands right now.

There are signs that perhaps a more aggressive and longer-lasting warming trend may develop by next weekend.That being said, the handful of times we’ve seen this over the last month or so, a cold front has magically appeared within those periods, shortening the warming to just a couple days. Will that happen again this time? More for you on Monday!

Good morning. As we get closer to the weekend our forecast is coming into slightly better focus, but we still have some questions about the timing and intensity of some storms that may roll through on Friday, and potentially again on Sunday. Let’s jump in.

Thursday

The big change for today will be winds, which will become more pronounced from the south during the daytime. Even though moisture levels will increase some, I still think our skies will remain mostly sunny. This will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 70s. Southerly winds will continue overnight, pumping more moisture into the area. Lows likely will not fall below 60 for most of the area.

Friday

An upper-level system will approach Houston on Friday, and combine with this moisture to produce widespread showers and perhaps a few severe thunderstorms. The primary threat will come from strong wind gusts. I think the afternoon hours will be the most likely period for rainfall, and expect most of the region to see 0.25 to 0.75 inches through Friday evening. Rains should end by Friday night as a cool front nears the area.

Saturday

This front should reach Houston during the morning hours, and move off the coast by or before noon. At this point it looks like Saturday will turn out to be a rather nice day, with highs perhaps reaching near 70 degrees, and plenty of sunshine during the afternoon to go along with light northerly winds. Lows Saturday night will likely drop to around 50 degrees in the city.

Sunday

Another upper level feature will approach Houston on Sunday, and this could drive another round of rain chances during the daytime. The global models are not in great agreement on rain totals with this second system, but for now I’d expect less rain than the region will see on Friday. Matt will have to get the scoop for you in tomorrow’s post. Highs Sunday will likely get into the 60s, with partly sunny skies. A stronger push of cold, dry air arrives later Sunday, or Sunday night, setting the stage for cooler conditions.

Next week

I expect the cooler and drier weather—highs in the 50s and 60s, lows perhaps around 40 degrees—to hang around for much of next week, with a warming trend only kicking in perhaps by next Thursday or Friday. Winter is coming (back)!

Good morning. Houston will continue to see a slow warming trend heading into the weekend before the arrival of two cold fronts nudge the region back into winter-like weather. Unfortunately, we’ll likely see some decent rain chances over the weekend until the second front pushes completely through.

Wednesday

Lows are starting out in the low- to mid-40s today, and we’ll warm into the mid- to upper-70s under sunny skies. Our nearly calm winds will shift to come from the south later today or tonight, and that will mark the beginning of an onshore flow. Low temperatures tonight will be around 50 degrees in the city itself, with cooler conditions inland, and warmer near the coast.

Thursday

Skies should again be mostly sunny, and temperatures should again climb into the upper 70s. However, with continuing light, southerly winds we’ll start to see humidity levels creep up, and Thursday night’s temperatures should only drop into the low 60s for most.

Friday and Saturday

The pattern becomes more complex by the end of the work week, as an upper-level low pressure system approaches Houston from the west. By Friday, our atmospheric moisture levels will have increased to moderate levels, and this combined with rising air should lead to widespread rain showers later in the day. I expect these rains to be light to moderate, with accumulations of 0.25 to 0.75 inches for most people. Highs on Friday should reach the mid-70s.

At some point on Saturday, likely during the morning hours, a cold front should push into Houston, likely pushing off the coast around noon. Skies may clear a little bit on Saturday afternoon and evening in the wake of the front.

Sunday

Lows on Saturday night will probably drop to around 50 degrees in the city, but then we should see a second frontal passage on Sunday that will bring still colder and much drier air to the region. It’s looking like this second front may produce some additional showers on Sunday, and then dry out quickly as blustery, northerly winds kick into gear. Lows by Sunday night or Monday morning could drop into the upper 30s for areas away from the coast.

Next week

I think the general pattern next week will be one of warming after Sunday’s front, but I don’t have much confidence in the details. I know a lot of you have asked and wondered about Christmas Day weather, but right now it’s just too early to say anything meaningful. We’ll put out a preliminary forecast next Monday.

Good morning! I want to thank the teachers at Seabrook Intermediate, and the science program led by Rebecca Rolater, for letting me judge their annual science fair on Monday. It’s been an incredibly difficult year for teachers, so it’s great to see them persevere through the pandemic, and always uplifting to see the creative ideas kids have for projects. It gives one hope for the future. Now, on to the weather…

Tuesday

Temperatures have generally dropped into the upper 30s to low 40s across much of Houston this morning, and we’ll continue to see pleasant, sunny weather for a few more days as high pressure dominates. Expect high temperatures today to reach around 70 degrees, with light westerly winds. Temperatures Tuesday night will be a few degrees warmer for your location than Monday night.

Wednesday and Thursday

Expect more sunshine, and a modest warming trend, as we get deeper in the week, and our weather will begin to change further by early Thursday, as the onshore flow returns. This will begin to bump up our humidity levels. Otherwise, expect highs in the mid-70s both days, with mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows on Wednesday night will be about 50 degrees, and jump up to 60 by Friday morning.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We’re still not all that confident about our forecast for this weekend. We can say that Friday should be mostly cloudy, with highs in the 70s, and some decent rain chances during the daytime and overnight hours—much of the area could see 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain. However, we’re still not certain of what happens after that.

It’s possible that a front will barrel all the way into Houston, and off the coast, drying the region out by Saturday morning. Or the front could get hung up northwest of, or on top of Houston. This would lead to continuing moderate rain chances and warmer conditions on Saturday for much of the region. This front, or a secondary push of drier air, will eventually make it through and off the coast, so we expect a cooler and sunny day for Sunday, with highs perhaps struggling to reach 60 degrees.

Next week

There is a fair amount of discrepancy in the models about how cold things will get early next week in the wake of the front. For now, I think lows in the city itself will probably get down to around 40 degrees by Monday morning or so. Another front may push through on Tuesday night, to keep the region on the cooler side for a few more days.