Temperatures have fallen to near freezing across most of Houston, but stayed just above it for the most part except for the usual cold spots such as Conroe and Huntsville. Now, our late winter roller coaster will turn back upward, with a warming trend through Saturday. After today, we’ll also say goodbye to the sunshine until Sunday, at least.

Wednesday

Winds remain out of the north, or northeast this morning, but they’re going to gradually swing to the east, and the southeast later today which will presage a warm-up in our weather after Monday’s descent into the depths of winter. Highs today should climb into the 50s under partly to mostly sunny skies, and with relatively light winds it will feel a fair deal warmer than Tuesday. Clouds return this evening, and there’s a slight chance of drizzle as early as the pre-midnight hours tonight. Lows likely will fall only to around 50 degrees.

Rodeo weather

This should be one of the nicest evenings for the rodeo so far, if a bit chilly. Temperatures going into the show should be in the low 50s, with mixed skies. Coming out afterward, temperatures won’t have budged much, but skies will probably be mostly cloudy by that time. We can’t rule out some light, misty rain after the show, but chances are less than 20 percent.

Thursday and Friday

Wednesday’s wind shift will drive big temperature differences toward the end of the work week. These will be mostly gray days, with temperatures in the 70s, and dewpoints nearly as high so we can expect to feel the humidity. Overnight lows will only fall into the 60s. Some light rain is possible both days—30 to 40 percent—but accumulations should be slight as the heavier rain probably will hold off until Saturday.

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It is quite cold for early March across Houston, but this is far from uncharted territory. Here are just a few data points this morning:

• As of 6:15am, the low at Bush Intercontinental Airport is 30 degrees. The record low for today is 25 degrees, set in 1989.
• The latest freeze ever recorded at Bush IAH came on April 10, 1973, when the low was 31 degrees.
• College Station did shatter a record on Monday, with a maximum temperature of just 35 degrees—five degrees below its previous record of 40 degrees.

In short, it’s very cold across Houston with a freeze blanketing almost the entire region except for the coast, but it is not unprecedented to have such an outbreak of cold weather in March.

Tuesday

After an long string of mostly cloudy days, we’re going to see the return of mostly sunny skies today. This should allow temperatures to rise above freezing fairly soon this morning, but with northerly winds continuing to bring cooler weather into the region we can expect temperatures today to only get up into the mid- to upper-40s. Tonight should be cold again for the region, with overnight lows perhaps 2 to 3 degrees warmer than Monday night.

Rodeo weather

Conditions at the rodeo this evening will be cool going in, with highs holding on to the mid-40s just before the sun goes down. Winds will be fairly light, at 6 to 8mph out of the north, so that will help keep things from being too cold. By the time the show ends, however, temperatures will have fallen into the upper 30s, so be prepared for that.

Wednesday

The high pressure associated with this strong cold front will move away on Wednesday, and as that happens winds will turn easterly and eventually southerly. This will mean two things for Wednesday: the return of some clouds, and a warmer day in the 50s. Lows Wednesday night will probably only fall to around 50 for most of the region as a warmer pattern begins settling in.

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Temperatures are very cold this morning across the Houston region, ranging from near freezing for inland areas to around 40 degrees right along the coast. Gusty, northerly winds have pushed wind chill temperatures into the upper 20s for most of the area, so please bundle up before heading out today. Much of the region will see a freeze on Monday night as modified Arctic air spills into the region.

Monday

It will be cold all day. Clouds should hang around for most of today, before some clearing this evening, keeping high temperatures to around 40 degrees. High pressure over the central United States will continue to drive strong northerly winds for most of today, with gusts of around 20 mph, so wind chills will likely remain in the 30s all day. Some light, misty rain will be possible, especially near the coast, but accumulations should be near zero. In short, it will be extremely cold for early March. As skies clear tonight we will see ideal conditions for cooling, and a freeze may well extend into the central Houston area.

Rodeo weather

Well, it’s going to be chilly. Temperatures at 6pm will be around 40 degrees, with rain chances near zero, and fading northerly winds. Not much will change after the rodeo is over, although skies may well be clear after the show. So you might be able to look up and see a few stars as you’re shivering your way back home. Please dress warmly.

Tuesday

A cool, sunny day, with highs of around 50 degrees. With clear skies Tuesday night, the Houston region should see conditions ranging from a light freeze for some areas of Montgomery County down to around 40 at the coast.

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I’m going to start today’s post with a bit of controversy: February of this year wasn’t that bad of a month when you compare it to February 2018. Believe it or not, 74.3% of all hourly observations in February 2019 had some form of overcast reported. That could be fog, low clouds, high clouds, or even thin clouds with a little sunshine still getting through. But it’s a nice barometer of how cloudy the month was. Guess what? In February 2018, we managed to do 81.9% of all hourly observations in some form of overcast. So as bad as this past month was, it wasn’t quite as cloudy as last year.

February 2019 also ended up with only 1.73″ of rain officially at IAH Airport (Hobby had 3.29″). Last February saw 5.73″ of rain officially. So despite our many days of rain this year, it was actually wetter last year. But last February averaged 62.5°, while this February averaged 59.7°. So I’m giving the edge to this February for being the worse of the two months on the colder weather alone.

Today

Whatever the case, February is in the rear view mirror, and it is now onto March, which will come in….as February ended. Expect a lot of low, dreary cloud cover today. Showers are possible, but not likely. More likely will be patches of drizzle at times.

Temperatures will be the challenging part of the forecast today. That cold front from yesterday was supposed to return back north today as a warm front. That appears to not be the case, so expect a mostly chilly start to the month today. Model guidance says we will get into the low- to mid-60s later today. Given our starting point this morning in the mid-40s, I would not be shocked to see us struggle to get into the upper-50s by evening and then continue a slow rise to near 60° tonight. Either way, we’ll get there. It’s just a matter of whether it’s today, tonight, or Saturday morning.

Rodeo weather

I think we are in good shape for the rodeo tonight in terms of rain chances. Yes, I cannot entirely promise there will not be a shower, but I think that would be rather unlikely. Temperatures are another matter. Expect mostly cloudy and cool, damp conditions. Temperatures will probably be about 56-59° in the early evening and post-show temperatures should be, well, in the 56-59° range. Temps won’t move much during the evening. Watch for areas of patchy fog on your drive home, especially if you’re heading southeast of town.

Saturday

I don’t expect much serious weather Saturday, aside from areas of dense sea fog developing once again. Coastal and Bay Area communities will likely be plagued by fog once again late tomorrow and tomorrow night. The rest of us should see mostly clouds, again, though a few scattered showers will be possible through the day, especially along or north of I-10. Temperatures will continue to be difficult. South of I-10 stands the best chance at being quite warm tomorrow with highs near 75° or so. Those chances of warmth get smaller as you go north. Some places north of I-10 tomorrow may not get above the low- to mid-60s. It’s possible that at some point tomorrow Conroe is around 60°, while Pearland is sitting at 76°. It will be that kind of day.

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