It has been a wet winter so far for most of Texas in general, and the Houston area in particular. December finished with about twice as much rain as normal for most of the region, and January is well ahead of normal as well. (The map below shows percent of normal rainfall for Texas over the last 60 days. Most of Houston has had 130 to 200 percent of typical amounts.) The reason I’m pointing this out is that, for the first time in awhile, the next 10 days look fairly dry—with only slight rain chances and slight rain accumulations.

This morning, temperatures range from the upper 20s for inland areas such as Conroe and Huntsville, to the upper 30s for areas along the coast such as Galveston and Palacios. In the city of Houston itself, temperatures are at, or just above the freezing level. High pressure, calm winds, and clear skies have allowed for ideal cooling overnight. We’ll now slowly warm up before another strong front next week.

Thursday and Friday

Expect mostly sunny to sunny conditions, with highs in the mid- to upper-50s. Lows for Thursday night will probably be about 5 degrees warmer than Wednesday night, and by Friday night most of the region should be in the low 40s.

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A strong cold front pushed through Houston shortly after midnight, and now temperatures have fallen into the upper 30s and lower 40s across the metro area. We’ll now return to a period of mostly colder weather for the rest of January, and early February, with additional cold fronts on the horizon.

Wednesday

While rain showers have not ended this morning, the activity is beginning to wind down as drier air moves in from the west. Overnight totals for most of Houston measured between 0.5 and 1.0 inch of rainfall, but some areas near Magnolia got 2.0 inches or more. This wasn’t enough to cause any major flooding problems, but it certainly made for a wet night. A wintry mix is now falling in a few areas near College Station and Brenham, but it is unlikely to get cold enough in Houston for sleet or snow before the precipitation ends this morning. That should occur between about 9am and noon, as the last rains move east.

Even with clearing skies, however, temperatures today will struggle to reach into the upper 40s, and with a northerly wind gusting up to 20mph this will certainly be a chilly day across the region. Under clear skies, lows tonight will likely stay at or just above freezing for most of the Houston metro area.

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Temperatures have only fallen down to around 60 degrees for most of Houston this morning, and we’ll have one more warmer day today before cooler weather returns with a front tonight, and lasts for the rest of this week.

Tuesday

Highs today should generally get up to around 70 degrees, with mostly cloudy skies keeping them from getting much higher. Winds will be blowing out of the south today, increasing moisture levels ahead of a cold front tonight. Although scattered showers will be possible during the daytime, by far the best chance of rain will come tonight with a line of precipitation along the front. The front should reach areas northwest of Houston between 9pm and midnight, roll through Houston sometime between 11am and 2am, and should be off the coast by or before sunrise Wednesday. At this time, accumulations of 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rainfall are likely.

It should be noted that some models have been hinting at the possibility of snow or sleet for areas northwest of Houston, such as the Brazos Valley, with this system. However it seems most probable that the colder air needed for wintry precipitation will lag far enough behind the precipitation to preclude this. Can’t rule it out, but it seems doubtful. The chance of seeing anything like this in Houston itself is pretty near zero.

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After a warm-up today and especially on Tuesday, Houston will return to cold weather this week with highs mostly in the 50s. We should also see a fair amount of sunny skies—barring a gray and warm Tuesday. The forecast for the weekend is not year clear, alas.

Martin Luther King Jr. Day

Chilly conditions this morning, generally in the 30s, will warm up fairly quickly as the sun comes out. It should be a pleasant day to watch a parade, or otherwise partake in outdoor activities, as temperatures rise into the low to mid-60s under partly sunny skies. Winds will shift to the southeast later today, which will bring some more clouds into the mix this afternoon. Lows Monday night will only fall into the 50s with the modified air.

Tuesday

This will be a warm, and possibly wet day as a southerly flow establishes itself over the Houston area. Skies should be mostly cloudy in response to the increased moisture, but even so high temperatures should get up to 70 degrees. Rain chances will increase Tuesday afternoon, and especially Tuesday night ahead of a cold front. I don’t anticipate this front will produce the intense showers and (especially) thunderstorms that we experienced early Saturday, but most of Houston should still see about one-half inch of rain.

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