Good morning! Our Wednesday post is coming to you quite a bit earlier than usual as both Matt and I are traveling. In this case, I’ve gone west on assignment, and it’s easier to post at night than in the morning. Bottom line: you can expect the same weather forecasts, with new-and-improved time zones. (We’re both back in Houston this weekend).

Wednesday

If you liked Tuesday, have we got a deal for you—conditions on Wednesday are likely to be similar, albeit with temperatures perhaps a few degrees cooler. Yesterday, we mentioned the possibility of brief, strong storms and that’s precisely was some areas in the Brazos Valley got on Tuesday with some strong winds and heavy rainfall. Similar conditions will be possible in Houston on Wednesday, but it’s hard to peg where. Generally, I think we’ll see scattered storms pop up closer to the coast before noon, and then steadily migrate inland during the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be pretty strong, but should not persist too long. Look for highs in the mid-90s.

Thursday and Friday

As high pressure begins to take hold we probably can expect rain chances to fall off to around 20 percent. Highs should make it into the mid-90s under mostly sunny skies.

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Scattered rain chances will continue through the middle of the week before sunnier skies return for the first half of the weekend. There still are no real signs of a cold front, alas, but we will need to keep an eye on the tropics over the next couple of weeks—which we’ll discuss below.

Tuesday

Similar to conditions on Monday, we’re going to see some scattered showers develop later today as Gulf of Mexico moisture streams inland. But as there is no real trigger for this atmospheric moisture to precipitate out of the sky, rain chances for most of the region will only be about 30 percent. Skies will be partly sunny, and whether high temperatures climb into the mid- or upper-90s will depend upon the extent of cloud cover and rainfall near you this afternoon. But we can safely say it will be hot.

Wednesday

Another day similar to Tuesday, albeit with higher atmospheric moisture levels. This should nudge rainfall chances up into the 50 percent range, and thunderstorms could briefly be fairly intense. Highs will likely be in the mid-90s.

Thursday and Friday

High pressure will begin to build over the region, helping to reduce rain chances down to around 20 percent each day. These should be mostly sunny days with highs in the mid-90s.

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It had not rained in September in Houston—at all—until a few areas saw some showers and thunderstorms this morning. Places like Oak Forest picked up about one quarter of an inch. This is indicative of an area of low pressure in the mid-levels of the atmosphere that will bump up rain chances over the next few days. Not everyone will get rain, but certainly this is the region’s best chance in more than 10 days.

Monday

It’s difficult to say what conditions will be like today. Some of the forecast models are pretty aggressive with rainfall later today, especially east of Interstate 45. Others show almost no development. Helpful, isn’t it? I’m going to side with the more bullish models and say the region has a healthy 40 to 50 percent chance of rain, especially during the afternoon hours. Some clouds should help cap high temperatures today in the mid-90s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Whatever happens today should provide some better guidance for what occurs on Tuesday and Wednesday, but right now I’d peg both days as having about a 40 percent chance of rain, with high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s.

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Autumn is really just a state of mind. In Houston it has to be because you certainly would never know it was just about autumn by stepping outside. The high temperature on Thursday was 99 degrees at IAH Airport. Hobby managed to hit 96 degrees. This heat will continue.

Today and weekend

Expect mostly a rinse (without the water) and repeat weekend of weather here in southeast Texas. We will have sunshine and heat. High temperatures should flirt with 100 degrees each day for Houston and points north and west. Coastal locations should top off in the mid-90s. Morning lows should be in the mid- to upper-70s. It may be a degree or two less hot on Sunday.

As Eric noted yesterday, we will definitely have a good shot at tying or breaking some long standing record high temperatures today and tomorrow. Sunday will still be possible but probably a bit less likely. The records:

Friday: 99° (1909)
Saturday: 98° (1963)
Sunday: 100° (1907)

Stay cool and do your best to conserve energy, particularly today.

Early next week

The dome of high pressure responsible for our surge of September heat is going to migrate off to the east next week. It won’t be far enough away to allow any kind of meaningful cool air to drop through the Plains, but it should be enough to at least allow sea breeze showers each day off the Gulf. This would be of the 20 to 30 percent chance variety. I would expect mid-90s each day, along with a bit more more humidity.

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