So far this month, Houston’s Hobby Airport has recorded only a “trace” of rainfall, which means there has been no measurable amount of precipitation. Looking back at the records for Hobby Airport, which date back to 1931, this has happened just twice at the site previously—in 2003 and 1937. Although I think there’s a chance the airport site makes it through this month without getting any measurable rainfall, I think there’s a greater chance that the region finally sees at least some modest rainfall next week. Let’s hope so, because Hobby (and a lot of other locations in the southern half of the metro area haven’t seen meaningful rain since April 21).

Thursday and Friday

Houston will remain unseasonably warm to end the work week, with high temperatures likely in the low- to mid-90s, and mostly sunny skies. Nighttime lows in the lower 70s. Near zero percent chance of rain.

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Long-time readers of this site will know that we don’t place a whole lot of confidence in seasonal forecasting. Trying to predict weather (note that’s “weather” not “climate”) conditions months in advance is not exactly an exact science. Case-in-point: Much of the Houston area has not gotten a drop of rain in the month of May, and the next week or so looks dry. And yet here’s NOAA’s monthly outlook for precipitation for the month of May, issued on April 30th:

This forecast, quite clearly, will likely bust. And it was issued the day before the month of May began. So while I do think there is some value in seasonal forecasting, you should not take it to the bank.

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Houston’s Intercontinental and Hobby Airports, as well as Galveston, set record highs on Tuesday with the mercury hitting 94, 94, and 88 degrees respectively. This abnormally warm weather should continue for at least another week or so as a mid-summer like pattern of high pressure persists over the region. We’ll probably have to wait that long, as well, before meaningful rain chances return to the area.

Wednesday

After starting out in the upper 60s or lower 70s—depending on where you live in Houston—temperatures on Wednesday will climb fairly rapidly across the region. The combination of clear skies and summer-like high pressure should again push high temperatures into the mid-90s. This will be another day that, if you’re planning to do something outside, it’s best to try and do it during the early morning, or evening hours.

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It is not atypical for high pressure to dominate Houston’s weather for weeks at a time, as it has so far this month. But it is atypical for this pattern to dominate in May, rather than later during the summer in July or August. However, it appears that high pressure will nonetheless be with us for awhile, and accordingly the rest of May will probably be warmer (and drier) than normal. The 16-day forecast from the GFS (never to be trusted, but in this case it’s probably not that far off) offers this outlook for the rest of the month:

For May, that’s pretty brutal.

So if days are this hot in May, what does this mean for July and August? We’ll have a comprehensive post on Wednesday that will look at the summer forecast for Houston and southeast Texas. We know it will be hot. But how hot?

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