After a string of three cool but beautiful days to start this week, we’re going to turn the corner today, back to slightly less nice weather, leading to some rain chances for Friday and the weekend.
Today
Look for a mostly nice start to Thursday. Just a few high clouds passing through this morning, though some newly developed low clouds are showing up near and east of US-59. But satellite imagery shows that the mainly clear weather elsewhere is running out of time.
The nighttime view on satellite shows much more cloud cover working closer to Houston. (College of DuPage)
Expect temperatures this afternoon to reach for the mid-70s in Houston, with gradually increasing clouds. I can’t rule out a little light rain or drizzle well southwest of Houston by mid to late afternoon. This would be most likely near Bay City, El Campo, Matagorda, or Wharton.
Tonight and Friday
Expect clouds to thicken up tonight across the entire region. We’ll see at least a few showers, sprinkles, or drizzle try and move into the area. Temperatures will be nowhere near as cool as in recent nights. We’ll struggle to get below 65 degrees or so in the city, milder southeast and cooler northwest.
On Friday, look for clouds and pockets of drizzle or showers in the morning. We’ll shift to a mostly cloudy afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should begin to pop up however. That said, the best chance for those will be east of I-45, mostly between Houston and Lake Charles. West of Houston, expect a few isolated showers or downpours Friday afternoon. High temperatures should sneak into the upper 70s and low 80s, even with a good deal of cloud cover.
We’ve had quite a week. I guess if you want to grumble about the weather you’d be in Galveston wishing it were a few degrees warmer. But no one can deny it’s been flat out pretty this week. We’ve got one more winner of a day before some changes begin.
Today & Thursday
Today should be close to a repeat of the last couple. Another cool start in the 40s for many today will lead to a mild finish. We should sneak above 70 degrees this afternoon. We’ll see sunshine and a few high clouds around. Those clouds will increase on Thursday. I think it’ll be a mainly dry, quiet day, but it won’t be nearly as pretty as the current stretch of weather.
That said, we could see a few sprinkles or a shower, primarily southwest of Houston near Wharton or Jackson Counties down toward Matagorda. Look for morning lows Thursday to be in the lower or middle 50s, warming into the lower or middle 70s Thursday afternoon.
Friday
Things get a little trickier Friday. We should see clouds and a chance of sprinkles or a shower Friday morning. Temperatures will start much warmer than in prior days, with AM lows in the middle 60s. As a disturbance approaches Friday afternoon, that should help set off a slightly more robust area of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms as well.
The best chance for some steadier showers will be just east of Houston on Friday. Rain amounts should be 0.1 to 0.3″ for most, with a few higher amounts in that bullseye. (NWS/Weather Bell)
Weather models are still not fully in agreement on details here, but Friday afternoon will be our best chance of showers this week. One similarity I can find among the models is that they seem to favor areas east of I-45 for the most persistent showers. So the east side of Houston may be more likely see some pollen-cleansing showers than the west side. We will update this tomorrow as hopefully there’s slightly better agreement on details.
With quiet weather, I wanted to take a second to address some viral weather news. We’ve gotten several messages or comments from folks concerned regarding a hurricane outlook that’s being widely shared on social media, particularly Facebook. If you haven’t seen it, the gist of it is what you’d expect from a hurricane outlook in March that’s widely shared on Facebook: Gloom and doom.
I did some digging on the source for the viral post, and while they have over 70,000 Facebook followers, if you try and find out who they actually are, you hit a dead end. I have no idea if the owner of the site sharing this outlook is a degreed meteorologist who created this forecast or is sharing someone else’s with their followers or some guy in Kansas who just likes spinny things. Typically, if I cannot determine who an information source really is, I instantly treat them with a healthy dose of skepticism. And you should too. If it’s any comfort, Eric and I don’t see anything alarming about the upcoming season at this point. That may change — or it may not. It’s still quite early after all. I can tell you personally, as someone who has created a number of hurricane season outlooks for work, there is very little skill in March at predicting where storms will make landfall during the season. Believe me, I’ve tried. And failed every time.
Meanwhile, the actual experts on seasonal hurricane outlooks reside at Colorado State University. They have a good track record historically, and they back their thinking up with a lot of good data. Their early outlook is slated to be released on April 5th. It may be similar to the outlook you’re seeing shared on Facebook. Or it could be entirely different. I honestly don’t know. I do know that even the Colorado State experts will tell you to treat all seasonal hurricane outlooks cautiously.
More importantly, rather than focusing too much on the specifics of an outlook this far in advance, use this time as an opportunity to reset yourself now that we’re months past Harvey. We live in a very hurricane-prone part of the world. I wish we could tell you we’re good for a few years, but we don’t have that luxury in Texas. This is a good chance for you to rehash your evacuation plans, make plans to develop your emergency kit as we get closer to June, and learn more about the risks that may exist in your neighborhood. The time you spend now preparing will help you a lot if a storm threatens us again this season. And if we have nothing to worry about this year? Awesome! We hope that’s what we’re saying in October.
Anyway. We wanted to clear the air on that. On to the weather.
Today & Wednesday
As expected, a pair of stellar days is ahead. Yes, we may have some passing high clouds at times today and tomorrow, but for the most part, sunshine will dominate. A chilly start to today (even some 30s up north!) will warm into the upper 60s this afternoon.
I spy 30s west and north of Houston as of 6 AM! (NOAA/NWS)
We’ll drop back into the 40s again tonight before we approach 70 degrees on Wednesday. Perhaps a bit cool for the beach, but beautiful nonetheless.
Well, a good morning to you all. We are in for a treat to start this week. And the back half of the week doesn’t look terrible either. So in case anyone was worried about the forecast changing over the weekend, we have good news that it really has not changed!
Today through Wednesday
All the sunshine. Seriously, the next three days look magnificent. First, a quick note on the wind, which has been howling periodically overnight. It will begin to settle back during the day today. Expect less frequent wind gusts, though it will stay breezy at times. Besides that, over the next few days, the only real risk for a hiccup will be a few periods of high clouds that sweep through. As of right now, they don’t appear to be too thick, but the best chance for a little cloud cover to interfere in the beautiful weather would be Tuesday morning into early afternoon, and again later Wednesday afternoon.
A few high clouds will skirt by today, but otherwise, it should be near-perfect once the wind eases up. (College of DuPage)
As far as temperatures go, we’ll warm from the 40s or low-50s this morning into the middle 60s this afternoon. Look for tomorrow to start in the 40s and warm into the upper 60s during the afternoon. Wednesday should be close to a repeat of Tuesday, warming from 40s to near 70 in the afternoon. All in all, this is pretty close to perfect.
