Good morning. As of 4am CT, the system in the Gulf of Mexico has nearly organized into a tropical depression (named Barry), and likely will become one later this morning or early this afternoon. While Texas isn’t entirely out of the woods, as there remains some uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast, this increasingly looks like a threatening situation for Louisiana. Because the state is next to Texas, and we have received so many questions from people living in, or traveling through Louisiana, we will continue to offer comprehensive coverage of Barry as the storm develops. If you’re living in Houston, please continue to pay attention to forecasts for the next couple of days, as tropical weather invariably offers up surprises. However, it’s probably safe to go about your business as usual this weekend.
Satellite image of the tropical system shortly after 3am CT Thursday. (NOAA)
Track
Confidence is increasing in the forecast track for a couple of reasons. First of all, we’re now likely only about 2.5 days away from landfall (likely along the Louisiana coast between Lake Charles and New Orleans), and errors for such a storm are typically less than 100 miles, even given the uncertainty with Barry. Secondly, although Barry has not yet formed a distinct center of circulation, there is nonetheless a decent clustering of ensemble members of the global models around such a solution. So a Louisiana landfall is likely for Barry, but not a certainty.
National Hurricane Center track forecast for the Gulf system as of 4am CT Thursday.
Intensity
Because Barry has not yet organized into a tropical storm, and perhaps only has a couple of days remaining sufficiently offshore, this should help to set a limit on its intensity. The official forecast still brings Barry to minimal Category 1 hurricane status prior to landfall, but confidence isn’t particularly high.
So I just wanted to freshen up the site with a quick overview of what’s happening this evening and table set for tomorrow morning, when we should begin to give some more confident answers on impact risks to our area.
Now
I want to point out some of the key features to watch on a water vapor satellite image.
A satellite loop of water vapor shows several features we will be watching. (College of DuPage)
First, over the Desert Southwest, you can sort of see yellow color lifting north slowly. That’s the ridge of high pressure which will play a role in steering presumed future Barry. To the north, over Minnesota and Iowa, the yellow color beginning to dig south and east represents a trough in the upper atmosphere that will act to try and “pick up” Barry, drawing it to land. The ballet between these features, combined with where the storm eventually coalesces will determine whether this is indeed a Louisiana storm, as most modeling suggests, or if it could make its way far enough west toward Texas. We will learn much more about this overnight.
Where is that center?
Well, according to this tweet from one of the hurricane hunters, it’s still too broad to be easily defined:
Based on the most recent observations from the aircraft out there this evening, however, they may finally be on to something near 27.5 N/87.5 W, or a little bit south and east of where the National Hurricane Center had been initializing things. If that is the case, that would not be drastically farther south than expected, meaning I would feel a smidge better about the “miss Houston to the east” scenario being realistic. That said, strange things can happen overnight, so let’s watch and see what’s what tomorrow morning.
Evening models
A new batch of modeling comes out in the evening that we don’t use a ton, but we can still use to look for trends. Indeed, those models did trend back to the west a bit, but not as far as it looked this morning. What does this mean? Model consensus is still very much pointing toward a Louisiana landfall, keeping most impacts to our east. Thus we have no issues with the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center.
This evening’s forecast will be refreshed around 10 PM CT, and it may wiggle a bit to the east. (NOAA)
The NHC forecast for “Potential Tropical Cyclone Two” shows landfall between Cameron, LA and Vermilion Bay, but the cone obviously extends further to the eastern side of Houston on the left and east to near New Orleans on the right. Hurricane Watches were hoisted late today, extending from Cameron, LA east to the mouth of the Mississippi River. I would expect a tropical storm or hurricane watch to be extended west overnight, perhaps all the way to High Island, TX (northeast of Bolivar).
One word of note: If you have friends or relatives in the eastern half of Louisiana or your travels will take you through there between late Friday and Sunday morning, please make sure everyone is staying on top of the latest with this system. This has the potential to be a very serious rain and flooding event for that region, including Baton Rouge and New Orleans.
So for folks in Houston: You can go to sleep tonight knowing that no data this evening has increased our odds of being significantly impacted by this storm. But given a lingering degree of uncertainty, you absolutely will want to check back in on the forecast tomorrow morning to see what, if anything, may have changed overnight.
Eric has you covered in the AM, and I just want to offer him a mention of gratitude for stepping up to spell me so we can maintain continuous coverage through the storm.
Good afternoon. Based upon the latest model data, not a whole lot has changed in the forecast from early this morning. That is to say, there is not a whole lot of additional clarity, but nor do we have reasons for heightened concerns for Texas.
As expected, the National Hurricane Center went ahead and began issuing advisories on what will almost certainly become Tropical Storm Barry—citing it as a potential tropical cyclone. Here is the official forecast track as of 10am CT, and I would not anticipate much change when the hurricane center updates at 4pm CT.
Official track forecast as of 10am CT. (National Hurricane Center).
There are several big questions that are driving uncertainty in the track forecast. One is where the center of the storm ultimately develops, as this could cause a significant shift in the track (i.e. further to the southwest would lead to a more westerly track, closer to Texas). The second big steering issue concerns an upper-level system over the Great Lakes that will help to break down a ridge of high pressure over the plains states. The sooner this ridge weakens, the sooner the storm can begin to move north instead of being forced westward.
Good morning. Let’s cover the next couple days, and then jump into the latest on the tropical system.
Today
It will be very hot once again today, with mid- to upper-90s likely across the region. Look for borderline heat advisory criteria once again, so be sure to take it easy if you must be outdoors. A stray downpour or slow moving storm is possible.
Thursday
Look for a more typical summertime afternoon tomorrow. We will likely hit the mid-90s before more numerous scattered storms pop up across the region. Some could produce heavy rainfall, though some parts of the area won’t see anything. Things should quiet down after sunset.
Friday, weekend, and future Barry
Let’s discuss the future of the Gulf disturbance, currently known as “Invest 92L,” or what should become Tropical Storm Barry tomorrow or Friday.
The one two sentence summary: Weather model data has shifted back a bit to the west with Barry, though the vast majority of output still keeps the center and worst impacts focused in Louisiana Friday through Sunday. Still, this would be close enough for at least some fringe impacts in Houston, and given that there is still some uncertainty, we cannot write off a further drift to the west, so be sure to check back in with us later today.
Now: The disturbance known as Invest 92L is over the Gulf, just south of Apalachicola, FL, or somewhere near the area I’ve circled in the satellite image below.
Invest 92L, or the system we are watching to likely become Barry, is broadly located somewhere just off the Florida Panhandle this morning, disorganized in nature. (College of DuPage)
Over the course of today, 92L will likely slowly organize itself and drift to the south. Where exactly this occurs will have implications on both future track and intensity, so today is a critical day to watch observations and changes in modeling. It is possible, if not likely, that the National Hurricane Center will begin issuing advisories on this today or tonight, tagging it as a “potential tropical cyclone.”
Track: As of this morning, model data has shifted the track of 92L, as it develops into Tropical Storm Barry further west. Yesterday, model consensus pointed toward a track west and then a quicker lurch north into the Vermilion Bay area in Louisiana. This morning, that consensus has shifted about 50 to 75 miles further west toward Cameron, Louisiana. Here is a map of all the European ensemble tracks from the 51 ensemble members. What does this tell us? It’s basically the European model run 51 times with different initial conditions. This offers you a broader range of possibilities and includes some fringe ones you might not consider if you just use operational modeling.
“Spaghetti plots,” as these are known can only tell us so much, and today they are telling us that the consensus in modeling has shifted a bit more to the west. Though the majority of modeling keeps this east of Houston, enough of a minority is still far enough west to keep our guard up and prevent us from saying that we’re “all clear.” (Weathernerds.org)
What we look for is trend and consensus. Yesterday, consensus was to the east of where it is today, so the trend is drifting back closer to us, meaning we need to remain aware of what this storm does. And there are still a handful of ensemble members that want to bring this even farther to the west and south. This is a very uncertain outlook at this time. Ultimately, the forecast track of future Barry is too close for comfort. Although we will hopefully gain more clarity on that later today, it will be important to make sure you have your plan and kit in place in case you need to act quickly beginning tomorrow. Hopefully this stays to our east and that’s that, but we cannot promise that and uncertainty remains annoyingly high, given recent trends.
