Tropical disturbance brings high rain chances to Houston this week

Houston’s hot weather—the region got its first real taste of the mid-90s this weekend—will continue for one more day before moisture begins streaming into the area from the south. From late Tuesday through Thursday, a tropical disturbance moving up the coast will bring a healthy chance of rain to the region. While some heavy rain is likely, we don’t have any major flood concerns at this time. The National Hurricane Center gives the system a 60 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm, and the ceiling on intensity is almost certainly a low-end tropical storm. More on this below.

Tropical disturbance status as of 6:30am Monday. (National Hurricane Center)

Monday

Conditions today will be a lot like Sunday, with partly to mostly sunny skies, and high temperatures in the low to mid-90s. Sunscreen, water, and repeat. Lows Monday night will only fall into the upper-70s.

Tuesday

Skies will turn partly cloudy as moisture begins to move into the area from the south. Rain chances should remain fairly low—20 to 30 percent —for most of the day before the tropical tropical disturbance begins pulling north toward the region. Timing is a bit tricky, but the heavier rain should hold off through the daytime hours on Tuesday. Highs will be around 90 degrees during the daytime.

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Hurricane season begins, and yes, something may develop in the Gulf

June 1 marks the “official” beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season, and although it often begins quietly, we start this season with an eye on the Gulf of Mexico. For a couple of days now, the European model ensembles have been hinting at the formation of a tropical system in the southern Gulf of Mexico, and now this appears more likely. On Saturday morning, the National Hurricane Center raised to 50 percent the possibility of a tropical depression or storm forming there during the next five days.

As of 7am CT on Saturday, the National Hurricane Center forecasts a 50 percent chance of development.

All the usual caveats apply here: It is difficult to have much confidence in the movement of a system that has not yet formed, and it will also be affected by its proximity to the Mexican coast. With that said, generally, we expect this tropical system to move to the west-northwest over the next few days, perhaps toward Tampico (along the country’s east coast on the southern Gulf of Mexico) or Brownsville.

Assessing where this tropical system may go. (Tropical Tidbits/Space City Weather)

What this all means for Texas in general, and Houston in particular, for the coming week is far from certain. We still expect partly to mostly sunny skies through at least Monday, with hot temperatures in the mid-90s. But our weather beyond this, to some extent, will be determined by the movement of this tropical system. The ceiling for this system, in terms of winds, is low, so our primary concern will be the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall.

Eventually, it is going to get pulled north, so we can have some confidence in wet weather for Texas next week, but confidence for where, and how much rain, remains low. I’d say the best chance for heavy rainfall in Houston would come from late Wednesday through Thursday, but there are so many variables we’ll just have to see. For now, we’re not too concerned about the potential for any flooding in the greater Houston area—forced to guess, I’d say 1-3 inches of rain—but obviously we’ll be monitoring this for you.

Another chance for storms before a quieter weekend

For parts of Houston, yesterday was a dry sandwich on rain.

Rainfall was prevalent both north and south of Houston, but not so much in town. (Harris County Flood Control)

How’s that, Matt? Well, from the map above, you can see The Woodlands had just shy of an inch of rain in spots from morning storms. Grimes County even checked in with over 2.5 inches near Navasota. Other locations from northwest Harris into Montgomery Counties also got measurable rain. Then, south of Houston, afternoon storms deposited over 2 inches near Hobby Airport and over an inch down toward Pearland, with some more rain in other spots. Inside Houston, it was mostly dry. The east side saw some showers, but rains were mostly limited for the Inner Loop and north and west of town. We will take another swing at some rain chances today.

Today

Radar is quiet around the Houston area this morning, with just a few dying showers to our south.

Radar is quiet around Houston, but there is a healthy cluster of storms west of Fort Worth and near Abilene. Those could impact places like Bryan or College Station by early afternoon. (College of DuPage)

The more impressive storms this morning are near Abilene and west of Fort Worth. Look for that cluster of storms to drop southeast through the morning, possibly arriving far northwest of Houston near College Station by early afternoon. At the same time, a new scattering of storms should develop in and around Houston after 12-1 PM or so. So, the bottom line today: Expect a mostly quiet morning, with scattered storms this afternoon. Those under the most persistent storms later today could see two to three inches of rain in a short time. But also like yesterday, some folks in the area won’t see any rain at all. Have an umbrella for later, just to be safe.

Before and outside of any storms, temperatures will top off within a degree or two of 90 by early this afternoon.

Weekend

We shouldn’t see much more than a passing shower or two in the area for Saturday and Sunday. Most of us will be dry the entire weekend. Look for partly to mostly sunny skies both Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will begin to heat up a notch further, with low 90s likely during the day away from the coast and upper-80s in Galveston. Nighttime lows will generally be in the lower of middle 70s inland and mid- to upper-70s along the coast or bays.

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Storms possible Thursday as a dying front sags into Houston

We’re going to see a potentially dynamic day of weather on Thursday as a dying cold front approaches the metro area. Friday will be a transition day before high pressure clamps down on the region over the weekend and beyond.

As a weak cool front sags down toward the Houston area this morning, a broken line of moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms will move with it. As of 6:30am CT, this line stretches from Luling to Navasota to Huntsville, but it should gradually move the east-southeast, and into the Houston area.

Radar at 6:30am CT Thursday. (kktv.com)

Based upon high-resolution modeling, it appears as though the best rain chances will be north of Interstate 10 this morning, along the highway and through the central Houston area during the middle of the day, and closer to the coast later this afternoon and early evening. I think these showers will be pretty hit-or-miss, meaning that some areas will probably only get a smattering of rain while a neighborhood a few miles away gets lots of lightning and  1-, or 2-, or even in a few isolated cases perhaps as much as 3-inches of rainfall. Because some of these isolated cells may produce some heavier showers, we can’t rule out some street flooding throughout the day under the strongest storms. Rains should end by around 6 to 8pm for most of the area.

Cloud cover today should help limit high temperatures to the upper 80s or around 90 degrees.

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