Good morning. Just a quick note before today’s post—I wanted to say thank you to the 250 or so people who came out to the Houston Museum of Natural Science on Tuesday evening to hear Matt and I talk about the site, weather, hurricanes, and more. It was wonderful to meet so many of you, especially the two lovely young women who read this site to their mom every morning for practice—I’ve forgotten your names, and I’m truly sorry—but I promise to keep everything PG!

Wednesday

Change is coming slowly to Houston, but we’re still going to see another very hot day. The city has now recorded six consecutive days of 101-degree temperatures, and I don’t quite think we’ll get there today. But a heat advisory remains in effect, and we’ll at least get into the upper-90s if not 100 degrees.

Nevertheless, change is on the way, with high pressure finally beginning to back off to the west. This should allow for a fairly healthy—40 or 50 percent?—chance of showers late this afternoon and evening as the sea breeze migrates inland and collides with a disturbed atmosphere moving south. For the most part accumulations will be measured in the tenths of an inch, but a few heavy thunderstorms may drop more. Lows tonight will still be in the 80s.

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Houston endured its sixth consecutive day of a 101-degree high temperature on Monday, and the region may well have one more today before some relief finally arrives in the form of a weak front. There won’t be much cooler air, but clouds and rain chances will help moderate temperatures as high pressure eases off to the west.

Tuesday

But not today. Once again, Houston will bake beneath triple-digit heat on Tuesday and mostly sunny skies. Very light southeast winds will offer almost no relief, and Tuesday night’s lows will again be around 80 degrees for much of the region. Needless to say, a heat advisory remains in effect. The only good news from a weather perspective? August is almost half over.

Wednesday

As high pressure backs off to the west, a weak front will move southward into the state. Depending on the timing, this will either limit highs to the upper 90s, or mid 90s—still very hot, but not as hot as we’ve been. Clouds will increase some, and rain chances will bump up to about 40 percent during the day and overnight hours. We aren’t expecting anything spectacular in terms of accumulations, but anything will be welcome after an extremely hot and dry week.

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The region’s streak of very hot days and record-setting nights continues as high pressure dominates Houston’s weather. Here are a few notable trends from the last week across the region.

• Bush Intercontinental Airport recorded four consecutive days of 101-degree high temperatures through Sunday.
• Galveston has had six consecutive days in which overnight lows have only fallen to 84 degrees, the second longest streak after the heat wave of 2011.
• Houston’s Hobby Airport set or tied its record low temperature on August 7, 8, and 9 with lows of 80 or warmer.

All of these trends are likely to continue Monday and Tuesday as the ridge of high pressure continues to dominate our weather. Fortunately, the pattern should begin to change by the middle of the week.

Monday

A few, isolated areas of Houston saw some brief showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon, as rising moisture was able to combat subsidence in the atmosphere. We may see a similar pattern today, with 10 to 20 percent of the region seeing brief showers. Any relief from the heat will be temporary, however, as we still expect a hot way with much of the area seeing 100 degrees. Nighttime lows will again be around 80 degrees for most of the area.

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For the first time in 380 days, Houston officially hit 101° on Thursday afternoon. Since 1980, we have averaged about 3 to 4 days this hot per year. Another interesting nugget about Thursday: With a high temperature of 101°, a low temperature of 81°, and a daily average temperature of 91°, it was Houston’s hottest day since August of 2016.

By far the most impressive statistic came from Galveston on Thursday. The temperature never dropped below 86°, meaning Thursday saw the warmest minimum temperature ever recorded in Galveston, with records dating back to 1874.

Since 2015, Galveston has set or tied 90 warm daily minimum temperature records, or near 25 percent of all of them. In just five years! This is consistent with what has happened elsewhere along the immediate Gulf Coast. New Orleans has set or tied warm minimum temperatures 120 times since 2015, while Tampa has done it over 130 times. Corpus Christi has has new warm minimum records over 50 times since 2015. This likely speaks to a combination of a fairly warm Gulf of Mexico in recent years and is also a symptom consistent with what is expected due to climate change. Galveston will likely match or exceed several more daily warm minimum temperature records before summer is over.

Today through Sunday

It’s going to be oppressively hot and humid again today. High temperatures will hit the mid-90s at the coast and upper-90s or 100° inland. Heat index values will again likely be at least 105° to 110°, with several locations likely to push even higher.

Galveston maxed out with a heat index value of 117° on Thursday afternoon. We may not be quite that absurd today, but it will come close.

Saturday and Sunday sees high pressure anchor itself over the state of Texas. This will keep the heat rolling on with more of the same: At least mid- to upper-90s for highs, with 100° or higher possible. Nighttimes won’t see temperatures drop below the upper-70s or low-80s. Humidity and heat index values may drop off just a bit on both weekend days as that drier high pressure sits overhead. If you’re looking for rain, you won’t find it here.

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