We’ve talked about the potential for storms this weekend for several days—and today that forecast will finally come to pass. A large squall complex of showers and thunderstorms has developed over South Texas, and we can be confident that this will move to the northeast, toward the Houston metro area.

The primary threats from this system will be damaging winds, hail, and the potential for a few tornadoes. Rainfall rates will be high within these thunderstorms, but fortunately the system should be moving fairly rapidly. This will limit rain accumulations for most of the region to 1- 2 inches today. The following forecast, from the HRRR model, indicates the main line of storms should move through between 11am CT and 4pm CT. If you have outdoor plans at that time please have a strategy to take shelter quickly.

After the main line of storms we’ll see some drier air eventually move into the region. However we can’t rule out a chance of showers on Monday before sunny skies dominate our weather for the rest of the work week.

We’ve got some active weather ahead this weekend, so let’s jump in and tell you everything we know right now.

Today

Right off the bat, if you have plans today, we do not foresee any serious issues. But (there’s always a “but”) that said, areas of fog have developed this morning across the entire area.

The fog inland should gradually lift this morning, but it could persist along the coast well into this afternoon. Dense fog advisories are posted until 9 AM inland and until Noon at the coast. We’ll be partly to mostly cloudy and warm otherwise today. Highs should approach at least 80 degrees, if not the low-80s.

Tonight

For Houston, we don’t anticipate anything significant tonight, though a few showers or thunderstorms could develop after midnight, primarily north of I-10 and west of I-45, particularly out toward Sealy or Columbus up through Brenham or College Station. And even then, I really don’t think it would be anything other than very isolated through early Saturday morning. Look for low temperatures to only drop into the upper-60s.

In addition to an isolated shower or storm, fog should redevelop along the coast, possibly spreading inland again, though it shouldn’t be quite as widespread as today.

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As anticipated, rains have returned to the area overnight, although we’ve already seen more than expected over eastern Harris and especially Liberty County, where 1 inch or more has fallen in some locations. This signals the return of a wetter pattern that will remain with us through Sunday, after which time the region should have a chance to dry out for at least a few days.

Thursday

As of sunrise, the bulk of the shower activity has moved off to the east of the Houston metro area, but we should see some light-to-moderate activity fill back in this morning and into the early afternoon hours. However, again the best rain chances, and potential for any severe thunderstorms, remains well off to the east and mostly over Louisiana. The upper-level disturbance that’s driving this activity will move east later today, bringing and end to the rain. Highs today should be around 80 degrees, with a warm night in the upper 60s.

Friday

Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy, but Friday should offer a break from the rain. Expect highs of around 80 degrees. The only concern for Friday is the potential for patchy fog to develop with the warm air over-running cooler waters.

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Temperatures in much of Houston, including the official weather station at Bush Intercontinental Airport, dipped into the upper 40s on Wednesday morning. The question I’m left with is whether this will be the last time that happens this year until November. For example, in 2018, the final 40-degree night came on April 16, and the region didn’t get another one until Nov. 10. The next few weeks look fairly warm, so at this point I would bet on saying goodbye to the roaring 40s for at least the next six months. But no guarantees just yet.

Wednesday

We’ll also say goodbye to high pressure for awhile, as it has moved to the east, to be replaced by a warmer and more moist airmass. As a result rain chances will be on the upswing from tonight through the weekend. Today should be a mostly cloudy affair, with highs of around 70 degrees. We can’t entirely rule out some scattered rain chances today for the Houston region, but any heavier showers will likely hold off until after sunset. Overnight lows will be warm, in the mid-60s.

Thursday

Better rain chances will come late Wednesday night and through Thursday morning, with accumulations of perhaps a few tenths of an inch up to (at most) one-half inch through about noon. This shouldn’t be too disruptive, and rains should end during the afternoon hours. Some sunshine may even peek out before sunset. Highs will be around 80, with mostly cloudy skies, and again warm nights.

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