Houston is experiencing a chilly morning, with lows generally ranging from the upper-30s to lower-40s across the region. This is cold for Houston, but as we’ll see in the forecast, it’s going to get colder still by next weekend as an Arctic front storms into Houston on Saturday.

Monday

The region enjoyed a mostly sunny weekend, and we should have more sunshine today before the clouds begin rolling in tonight and Tuesday. Expect dry and cool conditions today, with highs in the mid-50s and only mild winds. We’ll see another cold night on Monday night, although some scattered clouds should keep temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than Sunday night and Monday morning.

Tuesday

With a more southeasterly flow in place, skies should become more cloudy as moisture levels rise. Expect high temperatures near 60 degrees, with overnight lows around 50 in the city.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Temperatures should warm from the mid-60s on Wednesday to the lower- or mid-70s on Friday, and rising moisture levels may lead to some scattered light to moderate rain showers. I would not anticipate anything more than a few tenths of an inch of rain. Overnight lows will climb to around 60 degrees, but this warm-up should be fairly brief because …

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For about a week now, when looking at the weather for Sunday, Jan. 20, we’ve discussed the timing and strength of a front expected to come through Houston just before or during the Houston Marathon weekend. There is now fairly high confidence the front will make it through on Saturday, and the front appears to be strong. The key questions we have now are rainfall/snow (unlikely, but impossible to rule out) and winds (a potential concern).

Assuming the front pushes through the region on Saturday, the most likely scenario is a clearing out of skies sometime Saturday night or Sunday. Under such a scenario, the region would see ideal cooling for Sunday morning. Right now, there is about a 90 percent chance the temperature on Sunday morning will fall below 40 degrees, and at least a 50 percent chance it falls to 35 degrees or below. Sub-freezing temperatures are certainly possible.

With no precipitation the most likely outcome on Sunday morning, the biggest concern I have is winds. These will of course depend on the timing of the frontal passage (an earlier front would give them time to die down), and other factors including pressure gradient. I think it is possible that we see anything from 5mph northerly winds up to 25mph (with higher gusts). It is impossible to forecast winds this far out, but I think there is a reasonable chance we see sustained winds in the 15-20 mph range in the wake of the front, which would produce wind chills down to around 20 degrees at the start of the race. Brrrr.

Bear in mind we are still a week away from the race, and there is always uncertainty in seven-day forecasts. But confidence right now is pretty high in a cold race day, with a potentially quite cold day given the possibility of winds.

It’s been a somewhat dreary winter so far, but we’re now entering a period in which high pressure may dominate our weather more—not all the time, to be sure—and this should bring us a nice string of mostly sunny days. If you like cooler, sunny weather, the coming forecast period should be perfect for you. Also, the weather for the Houston Marathon looks increasingly likely to be cold.

Friday

After a cool start in the 40s for most of Houston, the region should warm into the mid-60s today under mostly sunny skies. It should be a pleasant day before a cold front approaches from the west and pushes through the area. Lows tonight will be in the 50s for the most part.

In terms of rainfall, some scattered showers are possible this evening, and then a line of broken showers and thunderstorms will develop later, likely pushing through Houston from west to east between 10 or 11pm Friday night and sunrise on Saturday. We still expect most areas to see one-half inch of rain, or less from this system, but there could be some higher isolated totals. We don’t anticipate any problems from the rain.

Saturday

Rains should end around sunrise, or shortly thereafter, and the remnant clouds should dissipate by around midday if not before. Highs will reach into the mid- to upper-60s under sunny skies, with drier and eventually cooler air blowing in from the northwest. Saturday night will be chilly, with lows dropping down to around 40 degrees in the city of Houston, and upper 30s for inland areas, most likely.

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It’s chilly this morning, with lows in the 30s for areas well inland, such as the northern half of Montgomery County, and generally the low 40s for most of Houston. We will now remain on the cooler side of things until the middle of next week.

Thursday

Temperatures today will depend upon the extent of cloud cover at your location, but generally we should see partly sunny skies, and this should allow highs to reach about 60 degrees. As winds shift to the east, and a few more clouds develop Thursday night, we lows will likely be about five degrees warmer at your location on Friday morning.

Friday

And upper level storm system, with a cold front at the surface, will move into Texas on Friday, and bring a healthy chance of rain to the region Friday evening and during the overnight hours. During the daytime, however, we should mostly see clouds, and highs in the mid-60s. As for accumulations, the better dynamics for heavy rainfall are to the north of Houston, so I expect most in the city to only see a few tenths of an inch of rain, with a few pockets of higher totals near 1 inch. Lows Friday night will be in the 50s.

Saturday

Scattered showers should clear out of the area by or before noon, with sunny skies filling in. Highs will reach the upper 60s before cooler, northern air moves in later in the day. Overnight lows Saturday will be chilly, with northern parts of the metro area likely falling into the 30s, while most of the city remains near 40 degrees.

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