A broken line of showers and thunderstorms is pushing through Houston on Monday morning. These storms have been a little more frisky than anticipated north of the city, dropping 1 to 3 inches of rain, but they appear to be weakening as they move through central parts of the metro area toward the coast. These storms should move through Houston by mid-morning and then off the coast by or before noon. The primary threats are wind gusts above 30mph and brief, heavy rainfall. The primary benefit is cooler air thanks to a “cold pool” in the atmosphere that is helping to drive this morning’s storms. Alas, it won’t last.

Monday

After this area of relatively unstable air moves away from Houston later this morning, rain chances should fall significantly—leaving the region with only isolated, to scattered showers for the rest of the day. Winds will remain blowy, with gusts up to about 20mph. Partly to mostly cloudy skies should help moderate temperatures for the remainder of the day, limiting them to perhaps 90 degrees or even the upper 80s. Low temperatures on Monday night may get into the upper 70s for inland areas, but we won’t see too much cooling.

Tuesday

This has the potential for another wet day, as an upper-level disturbance moves through the atmosphere from west to east. This will provide a healthy chance of showers, probably about 50 percent, later in the day. Forecast models are hinting at the potential for another 1-2 inches of rain from this system for parts of Houston that get hit—and probably little to no rain for those that don’t. This is because storms that develop on Tuesday may be fairly slow moving. Highs will be in the low 90s.

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Congratulations, Houston. We’ve reached the longest day of the year—14 hours, 3 minutes, and 30 seconds. From this point on, days will very slowly get shorter as the Northern Hemisphere begins to tilt away from the Sun. In six months, our day length will be just 10 hours, 14 minutes, and 3 seconds.

Of course Houston doesn’t reach the peak of summer for another five weeks, with the warmest period typically coming from late July through the first half of August. This is due in large part to weather patterns, and a lag in heating of the Gulf of Mexico, which always modifies our region’s weather when the winds are blowing onshore (cooling us during this time of year, and warming us in the winter). Bottom line? We’ve begun the march toward fall, but it’s still a long, long ways away.

Friday

Speaking of summer, we’ll feel it today, with highs in the mid-90s and high humidity pushing the heat index into “heat advisory” levels out there. With partly sunny skies, please avoid being outdoors during the middle of the day if possible. Temperatures tonight will not cool much, only falling to around 80 degrees.

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Good morning. Northern parts of the metro area may be clipped by fast-moving thunderstorms this morning—Conroe and areas north—but by far the biggest story of the day will be heat. The National Weather Service has issued a “heat advisory,” indicating that the heat index will reach 106 to 111 degrees. This essentially means that the temperature in the shade, when factoring in humidity, will feel much warmer than the actual temperature in the mid- to upper-90s. If you’re in the sunshine, the effect will be even more pronounced.

Thursday

Aside from the heat, and partly sunny skies on Thursday, southerly winds may gust up to 20 mph across the area, reflecting higher pressures to the south and lower pressures over the continental United States. These winds are not reflected in the heat advisory temperature above, but may provide some limited cooling despite the high humidity today. All in all, however, it will be a hot summer day in Houston, with highs ranging from the mid- to upper-90s. The other notable factor will be nighttime temperatures that likely don’t fall below 80 degrees on Thursday night or the next few nights.

Friday

This will be another warm and windy day, although highs probably will top out in the lower to mid-90s. Skies will be partly sunny.

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Houston has enjoyed some moderately cooler weather over the last week or so, and the official high temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport has not risen to 95 degrees or above since June 9. Well, it’s about time to go back into the frying pan. Also, if you missed Matt’s tropical update on Tuesday, I encourage you to check it out, as it provides an overview of what we’re looking at over the next few weeks.

Wednesday

Highs today should be in the mid-90s with lots of sunshine. The atmosphere remains fairly moist, so it will be quite humid as well. Looking further afield, strong thunderstorms are possible in the Dallas-Fort Worth area later today or tonight, along with supercells that could produce tornadoes. Conditions are not perfect for such storms, but there’s an “enhanced” environment according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. So if you’re traveling north today, bear that in mind.

This line of storms should sag south tonight, but forecast modeling indicates that it will peter out as it moves into counties well north of Houston, and likely die completely before reaching Montgomery County. Mostly, the Houston area can just expect a partly cloudy, warm night with low temperatures only falling to around degrees. That’s downright sultry.

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