Lots of rain this week in Houston, but probably not widespread flooding

Sunday marked the beginning of a surge of tropical moisture into Houston, and Monday represents the second day of what is looking like a four- or five-day stretch of wet weather for the region. The good news is that, despite the soggy conditions we anticipate, right now it doesn’t appear as though we are going to see extremely high rainfall rates that will cause significant flooding. Our best guess for conditions through Thursday, therefore, is sporadic street flooding. If you’re wondering how this affects your activities, it should be business as usual in Houston for the most part. (And if you’ve scheduled an outdoor birthday party, you have our apologies).

Monday

The radar shows scattered, moderate showers streaming into the Houston area this morning, but the heaviest rainfall remains offshore. That should change later this morning and into the afternoon, as a tropical disturbance moves closer to the Texas coast, and inland tonight. We anticipate the greater Houston region will see 1 to 3 inches of rainfall today, with the potential for higher localized amounts under the most intense storms. As you can see in the map below, rain totals will likely be greater near the coast.

NOAA’s 24-hour rain accumulation forecast for 7am Monday through 7am Tuesday. (Pivotal Weather)

Given these conditions, we do not anticipate widespread problems due to rainfall, however if you find yourself in a heavy downpour, the most dangerous thing you can possibly do is drive into high water. Please, don’t do that. Wait a little while, as these storms should progress through the area fairly rapidly and any flooding should be temporary.

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A wet Monday in Houston: Here’s what we know, and what we think

Sunday has gone about as expected—with a smattering of heavy downpours but most of the region receiving 1 inch of rain or less. Monday and possibly Tuesday will almost certainly be different, with the potential for widespread heavy rainfall, and enough uncertainty that we’re going to continue to watch the forecast closely. We will have an update on the site no later than 6am CT Monday.

What we know

The heaviest rains are remaining well offshore over the Gulf of Mexico as of Sunday evening. The general expectation is that as the tropical disturbance moves west, toward the Texas coast, these showers will slowly move toward Texas and southern Louisiana as well.

HRRR model forecast for 7pm CT Sunday showing storms mostly offshore. Click this file to animate for a forecast through Noon, Monday. (Weather Bell)

This inland movement of heavier storms seems most likely to happen sometime on Monday morning, but whether that’s shortly after midnight or well into the day, we can’t say for sure. I’d guess after sunrise, if I had to.

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Scattered storms set for Father’s Day in Houston

Good morning, and happy Father’s Day to those celebrating today. For the most part, the forecast is on track as we’ve been describing it for several days now, but there are a couple things to keep tabs on. And if your travels will take you well south of the area, more toward Corpus Christi, you’ll want to keep a closer eye on the weather. Let’s jump in.

Quick Summary

Here are a few bullet points with the main takeaways that we want to convey today.

  • Scattered storms will develop today for much of the area with locally heavy downpours. Probably not a total washout, but you’ll dodge raindrops.
  • Heavier rains likely tonight and Monday, particularly southeast of downtown Houston. Areas of street flooding will be possible in heavier downpours.
  • Heaviest rain chances should move off to our southwest for midweek, but rain chances stay elevated in and around Houston.
  • Total rainfall of two to four or five inches will be the average across the entire area through midweek. There will be smaller, isolated pockets that see higher amounts upwards of seven, eight, or nine inches, most likely closer to the Bay Area or Galveston.

Now

As of about 8-8:30 AM Sunday, the Houston area is all quiet. We have a few isolated showers, mainly south and east of downtown Houston. And for much of this morning, we’ll be fine with just a couple downpours.

A radar loop early Sunday morning shows just some sporadic showers, with some heavier rain offshore of Louisiana. (College of DuPage)

Meanwhile, looking at a bigger picture view of things, satellite this morning shows our disorganized disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico now. Heavier thunderstorms are occurring well offshore. This is what we’re watching for tonight and Monday.

More organized thunderstorms (not an organized tropical disturbance) are offshore in the Gulf of Mexico. Those should arrive in our area later tonight and Monday. (Tropical Tidbits)

In terms of tropical development, the National Hurricane Center continues to carry a token 20% chance over the next 48+ hours. That’s a fair assessment, and we feel that impacts to our area will be similar regardless of if this thing meets technical definitions or not within the next couple days.

Rest of Sunday

So what can we expect for the rest of today? Well, as this disturbance creeps toward Texas, expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to pop up late this morning and afternoon across most of the area. I’m not going to classify Father’s Day afternoon as a complete washout, but you will likely be dodging raindrops at least once, if not a few times this afternoon. So if you are planning anything outdoors, have a backup plan. Most of the area will see a couple tenths to maybe a half inch of rainfall. Some will see less, and some may see in excess of one or two inches where rains are most persistent. Today’s rainfall will be a nuisance more than anything for most folks.

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Rain showers coming to Houston Sunday through Tuesday

Welcome to the weekend, everyone. We’ll be updating the site both on Saturday and Sunday out of an abundance of caution, rather than because we’re particularly concerned about the potential for flooding this weekend. The overall story remains the same: heavy rain potential increases on Sunday and Monday, with the biggest threat some localized high rainfall rates. As Houston floods go, this is not likely to be a memorable one.

Average of rainfall forecasts from the European ensemble model for now through Tuesday. (Weather Bell)

Saturday

The weekend will start out mostly sunny, with a high in the low 90s on Saturday. Rain chances should increase later today, with 30 to 50 percent chances near the coast, and lower chances inland. Because moisture levels won’t spike until Sunday, we don’t anticipate any concerns from heavy rains. If you have outdoor plans today, I’d press ahead.

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