Houston has reached peak summer—it’s all downhill from here

We’ve previously discussed why summer peaks so late along the Texas coast, a phenomenon known as seasonal lag. But now we’re finally here. For Houston’s official weather station, Bush Intercontinental Airport, today is climatologically the warmest day of the year. For Hobby Airport, it’s August 10. For College Station it’s August 11, and for Galveston its August 13.

Peak summer in the United States, by location. (Brian Brettschneider)
Peak summer in the United States, by location. (Brian Brettschneider)

 

Peak summer is here, and that means it can finally go. Unfortunately, it’s going to go slowly. (Thanks to Brian Brettschneider for the data).

Today through Saturday

Houston hit 100 degrees on Monday, marking the fourth time this year we’ve hit the century mark. Unfortunately this pattern of very hot days with highs in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees is not going to change this week. We’re going to see hot weather, partly to mostly sunny days, with some scattered showers mainly during the afternoon hours. Summer in Houston is to be survived.

Accordingly, a heat advisory is in effect for today, and will likely continue so through Saturday.

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Hurricanes—Why do they go where they go?

It’s been nearly eight years since the last significant tropical system (Ike) impacted the greater Houston region. So understandably, when NOAA’s National Hurricane Center began tracking the tropical wave that became Hurricane Earl, the region became a little jumpy. Was it, after a record-breaking “hurricane drought” in the Gulf of Mexico, our turn again?

In the end, Earl came nowhere near Houston, instead making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in Belize. Nevertheless we thought it worth discussing the factors that control the path a hurricane takes, so that the next time a system threatens the Gulf of Mexico we’ll all have a little more knowledge, and perhaps be less susceptible to any hype.

First advisory issued for Tropical Storm Earl on August 2nd, 2016 (Courtesy NWS)
First advisory issued for Tropical Storm Earl on August 2nd, 2016 (Courtesy NWS)

 

The graphic above is a version of the one we’re all familiar with—it shows the location of then Tropical Storm Earl at the time of the advisory, its projected track and intensity, the forecast cone, and any watches or warnings. Arguably, the most important information in this graphic is the track of the storm, because it (obviously) tells us where the storm is headed, and who will be potentially impacted.

What controls where a hurricane goes?

There are two main forces that control where a hurricane goes—the environment, and something called “beta drift”. The environment around a hurricane is the main force behind the direction the storm goes, “steering” it in one direction or another. The primary environmental steering for storms that form in the deep Atlantic tropics—these are the systems that move off Africa and spin into tropical lows—consists of the east-to-west moving trade winds, which drive storms across the Atlantic and toward the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.

Diagram showing typical tracks of North Atlantic hurricanes (courtesy NOAA)
Diagram showing typical tracks of North Atlantic hurricanes (courtesy NOAA)

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Houston to have a typical August week, but after that showers may come

Houston will continue to face very warm, summer-like conditions this week, which is understandable since we’re in the middle of August. However we’ll at least see some moderate rain chances to break the heat up—and possibly better rain chances by early next week.

Today

A stalled front well north of the metro area, in the vicinity of Texarkana, may produce some storms moving toward Houston from the northeast later today, but it’s not clear they will get all the way to Houston. Areas from Cleveland to Liberty to Beaumont are the most likely to see any rain as highs rise to near 100 degrees.  Accordingly, a heat advisory is in effect for all of the Houston area.

Tuesday through Thursday

We’re going to see typical August-like weather for most of the work week, with highs of nearly 100 degrees, lots of sunshine, and the potential for some afternoon showers driven by the sea breeze. Low temperatures will remain unpleasant, likely falling to only around 80 degrees. More heat advisories are likely on these days.

Friday and Saturday

A cool front will march across part of Texas, likely stalling out over north-north central Texas on Saturday or so.

This temperature anomaly map for Sunday shows cooler weather moving into Texas, but alas not Houston. (Weather Bell)
This temperature anomaly map for Sunday shows cooler weather moving into Texas, but alas not Houston. (Weather Bell)

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Houston’s heat hurtles along

As Eric has been describing much of this week, August is most certainly a month in Houston you just survive, and perhaps you use the time to dream about how jealous our cohorts in the Northern U.S. will be come November through March (as a transplant, I most certainly can confirm they’re jealous).

Continued hot the next few days, with just a few storm chances, mainly at the coast. I don’t see a lot of variation in the weather through the weekend: High temperatures should be mid to upper 90s and low temperatures in the upper 70s, perhaps low 80s at the coast. Rain chances should be about 5-10% inland, maybe 10-20% at the coast each day. We have a few showers near the coast already this morning, so look for those to continue in spots, perhaps diminishing in coverage a little through the weekend. It looks like a mostly decent weekend for outdoor plans if you can take the heat and risk of a quick passing downpour.

Traveling? Well, it doesn’t look much cooler elsewhere.

The weekend travel forecast is only slightly hot.
The weekend travel forecast is only slightly hot.

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