During the last couple of days there’s been a fair amount of hype about the potential for a tropical depression, or storm, to develop in the Gulf of Mexico. As of this afternoon the National Hurricane Center predicts there is a 60 percent chance an area of low pressure near the Yucatan Peninsula does just that.
Oh, hi, tropical system in the western Caribbean Sea. (NOAA)
We have not focused on this system for two simple reasons. First of all, Houston has been dealing with its own super soaker for the last several days, quite apart from this tropical system. Secondly, regardless of whether it develops, this mess is moving toward Florida and will have little to no effect on Texas weather.
After a stormy Thursday, though certainly one that could have been worse for Houston, I’m hopeful for a more optimistic situation today (though not one where rain chances magically disappear unfortunately). A Flash Flood Watch remains posted into Saturday evening, so we’ve got another day and change to stay on guard. Let’s break it down.
The greater Houston radar remains a mess this evening as a slow-moving low pressure system in the upper levels of the atmosphere has continued to pull moisture inland, from the Gulf of Mexico. For now the heaviest rains have established themselves in southeastern Harris County.
Several roads in the Pasadena/La Porte/Baytown area have flooded with in excess of 4 inches of rain falling during the last three hours, and the National Weather Service has issued a flash flood warning until 9:15pm CT.
Area of flash flood warning now in effect until 9:15pm CT. (National Weather Service)
Being honest, there remains a lot of moisture in the atmosphere tonight, and I expect we’re going to continue to see at least scattered if not widespread thunderstorm development during the rest of the evening and overnight hours. However if I had to guess about tonight, I’d speculate that more of the activity will develop to the east of Interstate 45, than to the west. But confidence is low.
Regardless, tomorrow looks like another potentially very wet day for much of the metro area, and now that southeast parts of the region are getting hammered pretty much everywhere is totally waterlogged. Not a good position to be in with more rain on the way.
Unfortunately, as expected, we’ve seen some smaller but intense rain bands move into the Houston area this afternoon. This has prompted the National Weather Service to issue two flash flood warnings for central and northern segments of Houston, effective until 7pm CT. They are shown in blue boxes below.
Area of flash flood warnings, effective until 7pm CT. (Hi-Def Radar)
These storms have produced 1 to 2 inches of rainfall in the warned areas during the last hour or so, which has led to some street flooding. They are moving only slowly off to the northeast. I’d expect the threat of scattered, heavy rain showers to persist through the evening hours before (hopefully) we see a bit of a break late tonight and early Friday.
However the upper-level storm system isn’t really going anywhere, so we’ll continue to see the threat of very heavy rain on Friday, Friday night and into Saturday morning. Accordingly the National Weather Service has extended the flash flood watch for the entire metro area until 7pm CT. We’ll continue to track these storms.
