Heavy rain possible on Saturday morning in Houston

Sorry for the late post this morning. I’m still traveling, and Matt had some other business to attend to this morning. We’ll be back to our regular schedule next week. In the meantime, I’m unhappy to report that Houston’s weather still looks fairly lousy.

Friday

As the onshore flow ramps back up today, we can expect to see warmer conditions, with high temperatures near 70 degrees. There’s the possibility of a few scattered showers later this afternoon, but for the better rain chances we’re going to have to wait for tonight and Saturday.

Saturday

Ugh. We’re going to see a spike in atmospheric moisture levels beginning Friday night and into Saturday morning, and in combination with divergence over head (which allows the warm, moist air at the surface to rise), we’re going to see a really healthy chance of rain showers beginning Friday night and through part or most of the day on Saturday.

A surge of moisture (shown here in precipitable water) will move into Texas and Louisiana on Saturday morning. (Pivotal Weather)

Right now the best chance of heavy rain seems likely to come on Saturday morning, when a few areas could see some rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour during the heaviest storms. This could be enough to cause street flooding, so please take care if you plan to be out and about. Overall, I’d anticipate widespread accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, which higher isolated totals possible. Highs Saturday will be around 70 degrees again. We’ll watch the potential of flooding for you, and update if needed.

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At least some sunshine likely today in Houston

BREAKING: The clouds. Maybe. More on that below. If you’ve noticed that it’s been a lot drearier than normal this month, you have statistics available to back you up.

This image is off of a cool site from Iowa State that has all sorts of climate and weather nuggets.I admittedly cherry picked an hour here, but other hours show some variation on this also. The link should show 3PM, which has had overcast skies reported every day this month so far. It’s been grey and dismal, and as much as I want to tell you we have a nice, lengthy stretch of good weather upcoming, we don’t.

Today & Friday

All that said, clouds have broken up some and we’ll have a half-decent day today. Satellite shows cloud cover mainly in the southeastern half of our area this morning.

Satellite this morning shows southeastern areas are still pretty socked in with clouds. But clearing has moved into northern areas. We will see at least some sun in most spots today. (College of DuPage)

Based on the movement of the clouds, I suspect we’ll actually have more clearing today than I initially expected. We’ll call it partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Expect highs to top off in the upper 50s or so. Clouds will gradually thicken back up tonight and onshore flow will resume, allowing temperatures to not fall as much. We won’t get below the upper 40s this evening and may even rise a degree or two toward morning.

Onshore flow will continue to increase on Friday, pumping back in moisture and solidifying clouds overhead. It looks as though we’ll see showers also increase throughout the day, especially south of I-10. Expect temps to slowly, steadily warm on Friday into the mid-60s.

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A wintry feel to Wednesday

Welcome back to Houston winter. Today will be a rude awakening for anyone who enjoyed our 70s yesterday. Let’s jump in.

Today

First off, the cold front is through the entire area already this morning. Temperatures aren’t going very far today. We’ve sunk into the 40s, and we should stay there for the balance of the day, though we may go from mid-40s this morning to upper-40s this afternoon. Either way, have a coat available today.

The HRRR model shows scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms continuing throughout the day today before gradually winding down after sunset this evening. (Weather Bell)

Also, have an umbrella. Rain and and a few thunderstorms will be likely throughout the day. Coverage is sporadic this morning, and that should actually increase as the day goes on. I wouldn’t rule out some small hail in any thunderstorms today with cold temps in place. Rain totals will be variable, with some folks seeing as much as a half inch, while others may only see a tenth of an inch or two. It will also be a bit breezy today.

Tonight & Thursday

Rain should end this evening. Skies may clear out tonight in spots well north. But I think we’ll stay mostly cloudy in Houston. This will help us avoid a light freeze. Folks up near Conroe or Crockett may see temperatures get into the lower 30s, but that won’t happen in Houston. Expect lows in the city to bottom out in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees or so. Just a little wind around tonight will make it a bit colder.

On Thursday, we start the warm up process again, so expect clouds to stay mostly in place, though we hopefully see some sunny breaks. The better chance of sunshine tomorrow may be north of I-10. But overall, the day should be dry and quiet. Temperatures will make a respectable effort to get close to 60 degrees, but likely come up short.

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Houston to get wet this week, and weekend

Good morning, everyone. It will be a fairly quick post this morning, as Matt is traveling, and I’m in Florida for the Falcon Heavy launch, which may liftoff as early as 12:30pm CT today. (If you’re interested check out these photos of me and Elon Musk near the launch pad on Monday).

Tuesday through Wednesday morning

A warm front has essentially stalled along the coast, and this is creating foggy conditions across much of the area, which may linger into the mid-morning hours. “Clearing” skies is a relative term, as skies will remain cloudy throughout the day. As that warm front lifts back north, it will generate some showers and probably some thunderstorms later this afternoon across the area, with the greatest potential for severe weather to the north-northeast of Houston. I expect most areas will see about one-half inch of rain today, give or take, as temperatures top out at about 70 degrees.

It will be a wet week for southeast Texas, with much of Houston picking up 1-3 inches of rain from now through Monday. (Pivotal Weather)

Wednesday

A cold front will push through the region early on Wednesday, likely moving through the city by or before sunrise. This will not immediately scour the rain chances from Houston, however, and I expect most of the region to pick up another half inch of rain, or so, before the region finally begins to dry out later on Wednesday, or Wednesday night. Temperatures will be quite a bit colder behind the front, so look for readings only in the low 50s on Wednesday after the front moves through.

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