Storms have brought Houston a cool May so far

After heavy rains Saturday, and almost nothing Sunday, what can be expected for today? Let’s discuss that in a moment, but first lets look at our cooler-than-normal May.

Every year we generally get warm, dry Mays or, if the storm pattern is more active, cooler and wetter Mays. This month has obviously been the latter. So far this May has been nearly 3° cooler than normal. Moreover, consider these high temperatures over the last eight days: 80,73,83,81,70,80,82 and 85 degrees. Normally at this time of year we should be edging into summer.

A graphical representation shows warm/dry May vs. wetter/cooler May dichotomy nicely:

Average temperature in Houston from May 1 through May 22. (Brian Brettschneider)
Average temperature in Houston from May 1 through May 22. (Brian Brettschneider)

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Without high pressure, expect Houston’s stormy pattern to continue

On Saturday we all found out the high pressure ridging that was supposed to shield our area of from widespread showers and thunderstorms this weekend did not, in fact, extend all that far into eastern Texas. Today there is no such mystery. The high pressure and drier air is far to the north of our region.

This water vapor image shows reddish, drier air well to the north of Houston. We're on the wet side. (NOAA)
This water vapor image shows reddish, drier air well to the north of Houston. We’re on the wet side. (NOAA)

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Surprise! Quick storms this morning augur a more active pattern

Good morning. And for those of us who live in the Clear Lake area, it was an early morning as thunder rumbled through at about 5am. I will confess that I did not expect this. So what’s going on, and what does it mean for the forecast?

There are a couple of things at play here. First of all, the high pressure ridging that was supposed to keep us drier for most of the weekend and to start next week isn’t quite as pronounced, nor does it extend as far south into Texas as previously thought. We can see the effect of this by looking at a NAM model forecast of precipitable water for Texas at 5am CT Saturday morning.

NAM model forecast for (Weather Bell)
NAM model forecast of precipitable water for Saturday morning at 5am CT. (Weather Bell)

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Calmer weather for Houston

After emerging from Thursday’s storms mostly unscathed, Houston and Southeast Texas can look forward to much calmer weather as we go into the weekend.

TODAY

After days of “chance of thunderstorms,” we can pretty much finally take it out of the forecast. If I were a total stickler, I’d keep about a 10% chance of a shower south of I-10 and east of I-45 in, but I’m not, so we’ll call it partly to mostly sunny today after some morning low clouds or fog. Houston has yet to hit 90° this year, and today should be no exception. I expect us to max out in the mid 80s today.

High temperatures today should range from the low to mid 80s from the Brazos Valley to the Houston area to the coast. (Weather Bell).

It looks like a good evening, with the Astros back in town and the Dash in action at BBVA as well.

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