Storms developing across Houston, should persist into the early evening

As the sea breeze and a weak front collide over Houston we’re starting to see widespread development of showers and thunderstorms over the metro area. It appears that storms between 2:30 and 4:30pm CT will probably be heaviest for the central and northern parts of Harris County.

A flood advisory has been issued for the following areas until 4:30pm CT:

Area of flood advisory in effect until 4:30pm CT. (National Weather Service)
Area of flood advisory in effect until 4:30pm CT. (National Weather Service)

These storms will be capable of producing moderate to heavy rainfall with the potential to flood some low-lying streets. However we do not expect these storms to produce widespread flooding. Strong wind gusts and lightning are also a threat. These storms will probably die out for good by, or shortly before sunset.

Rain likely today, but real heat looms in the distance

Good morning. The second half of June has been pretty dry for Houston, so all things considered the region could use some rain as we head into the warmest 10 weeks of summer. Fortunately much of the region should see just that today.

Tuesday

A weak front will sag into Houston today, meeting up with air moistened by the Gulf of Mexico. This should lead to some fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms developing before or by around noon, and sliding southward toward the coast. The most likely time for rain is between noon and sunset. I’m not expecting anything too extreme in terms of rainfall totals, and am hopeful half or more of Houston will pick up 0.25 to 1.0 inch of rainfall. Highs should climb into the low 90s.

HRRR model forecast for rain at 3pm CT on Tuesday. (Weather Bell)
HRRR model forecast for radar conditions at 3pm CT on Tuesday. (Weather Bell)

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Wetter weather possible before a hot July 4th weekend

After a mostly hot and dry weekend (some areas, particularly west of Houston weren’t entirely dry, of course) we’re going to see a pattern change this week, with some better rain chances returning. And don’t begrudge the rain—we’ll need it for what’s ahead.

TODAY

As high pressure to the northeast of Houston continues to move off we should see some slightly better rain chances today, especially when temperatures near their peak levels in the low 90s this afternoon. Some of these showers could be locally heavy, although probably brief. For parts of Houston that don’t see rain (likely a majority of the city) conditions will be pretty hot, with the heat index rising into the low 100s.

TUESDAY

On Tuesday most of the forecast models show a frontal boundary pushing into the Houston region. Now this isn’t going to bring significantly cooler air, but it will bring some instability that should lead to fairly widespread showers, and the potential for some locally heavy rain that might briefly flood some streets. But I’m not anticipating any widespread flooding problems because these storms should develop and then weaken pretty quickly. Highs will depend upon the amount of rain coverage. For most areas accumulations should be well under 1.0 inch.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Thursday. (Weather Bell)
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Thursday. (Weather Bell)

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The summer doldrums continue

Happy Friday, Houston! Summer may have taken a little time to kick off this year, but we’re definitely locked in the doldrums now, with what you would expect this time of year. Let’s jump into it.

TODAY

Looking at weather maps this morning, we see a pretty rich area of precipitable water (PWAT) approaching the Coastal Bend to our south. In English, that means there’s going to be gradually increasing amounts of moisture available for thunderstorms to pop up this afternoon.

Deeper moisture increasing along the Texas coast as of early this morning. (NOAA/SPC)
Deeper moisture increasing along the Texas coast as of early this morning. (NOAA/SPC)

So while it has been mostly quiet the last couple days, I expect we’ll see just a few more pop-up storms this afternoon (perhaps this morning along the coast). The best chance for greater coverage of afternoon hit/miss storms will be west of I-45 and south of I-10. The further north and east you go, the slightly drier the air mass stays today, so that should keep pop-up storms to a minimum. High temperatures will remain hot, into the low 90s, with heat indices into the low 100s.

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