Space City Weather

Houston’s rain chances soon to slip away

July 18, 2016 at 6:04 am by Matt Lanza

After a mostly quiet weekend around Houston, we had some excitement Sunday. In the morning, we had a waterspout in Galveston that prompted a Tornado Warning. Then, we saw numerous showers and storms around the area in the afternoon.

Radar loop from 1 PM-5 PM Sunday shows pulse storms around Houston. (UCAR)

Rain totals weren’t terribly impressive, but a couple spots saw up around an inch of rain.

Rain totals from Sunday across Harris County. (Harris County Flood Control)

Anyway, as we go into this week, we’ll start with rain chances similar to what we saw yesterday.

MONDAY & TUESDAY

With a good onshore flow and a surge of good moisture, it will be wise to keep rain chances in the forecast for Monday. Like yesterday, this won’t end up being a widespread soaker, but some of us will see some beneficial showers, downpours, and possibly thunderstorms both this morning and this afternoon. Outside of that, continued sticky and hot, with highs in the low to mid 90s.

Forecast radar today shows a smattering of showers, but not everyone will see one. (Weather Bell)

I think tomorrow will be a similar story, except we begin to see high pressure flex from the north. That means the best rain chances will be south of I-10. But again, a modest amount of shower/storm coverage should be expected. Again, highs should be in the low to mid 90s, with mid to upper 90s north of the Houston metro area.

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We need more synonyms for heat

July 15, 2016 at 6:09 am by Matt Lanza

Heat, hot, warmth, sizzling, scorching, stifling, stupid hot. We’ve run out of words to describe it. Any (PG rated) suggestions?

STATS

The weather forecast is pretty simple, so let’s start with a few stats. This July weather has been interesting. In people I’ve talked to, the daytimes don’t seem to feel much hotter than usual. The evenings aren’t especially awful either. It’s the mornings that seem to be the problem. Through yesterday, we’ve had nine 80° mornings in Houston in July (today will not be an 80° morning). This places us 3rd on record for any July and 6th on record for any month at all. Our daytime high temperatures have averaged 96.9° this month. Our nighttime lows have averaged 79.7° for the period.

If the month ended yesterday, Houston’s July would be tied for 4th hottest during the day and warmest ever at night (and not even close). Note: The chart below contains data through Wednesday; I’ve included Thursday in the totals above.

July's 10 hottest average high temperatures & low temperatures. (Midwest Regional Climate Center) — July’s 10 hottest average high temperatures & low temperatures. (Midwest Regional Climate Center)

So, yes, it’s been a hot July by any metric, even for Houston. But when you factor in the nights, July 2016 currently sits in a league of its own. Last week, Eric touched on some of the reasons why our nighttimes are getting warmer. I also think soil moisture (particularly below the topsoil), a legacy of our wet spring, as well as the warm Gulf are aiding our woes this month as well.

Soil moisture anomalies (left) and sea surface temperature anomalies (right) imply added warmth & moisture to keep our nights warmer than usual. (NOAA)

There also tends to be a global hangover after an El Nino of the magnitude we saw last winter, with lots of warmth lingering in the atmosphere, which may also explain a part the problem this year.

Anyway, with that, on to the forecast, with little to no good news unfortunately.

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Heat, heat, more heat—and if we’re lucky a bit of rain

July 14, 2016 at 8:23 am by Eric Berger

One of my favorite Led Zeppelin songs is titled The Song Remains the Same, and that’s an apt tune for our weather. Houston’s weather forecast remains the same. Which is to say we’re going to be hot, with slight rain chances, for days and days and days to come.

Today through Monday

High pressure is off to the west, but that doesn’t mean conditions are overly favorable for rainfall, with only modestly high levels of moisture in the atmosphere. One global model (the European) suggests most of the area will get 0.25 to 0.50 inch of rain between now and Monday, cumulatively, whereas the GFS model sees less than 0.10. The European model tends to be correct more often and has been consistent with its forecast, so that’s a good thing. But I wouldn’t describe my forecast for some rain during the next five days as high confidence.

In any case, when it doesn’t rain temperatures will remain very hot, with highs in the mid- to upper-90s and lows in the upper 70s to 80 degrees.

Tuesday and beyond

As we’ve been suggesting this week, strong high pressure will build over the central United States next week.

That's a big ridge of high pressure just to the north of Houston next week. (Weather Bell) — That’s a big ridge of high pressure just to the north of Houston next week. (Weather Bell)

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A slight reprieve possible this weekend, before more heat next week

July 13, 2016 at 7:38 am by Eric Berger

The heat continues, unabated. Through Tuesday the region’s average temperature is 88.2 degrees, which keeps Houston on track for the warmest July in the city’s history (87.5 degrees in 1980). We might see a bit of relief this weekend, but then we go back into the fryer.

Today through Friday

Our heat should persist at these near record levels during the rest of the work week, with highs in the mid- to upper-90s. However I believe overnight lows may drop a degree or two back into the upper 70s for most areas. Also, as we are not under a dominating ridge of high pressure some afternoon showers are possible, although I don’t think coverage will be greater than 10 to 20 percent of the region—and that may be optimistic.

You'd have to go all the way to Perico, in the Panhandle, to find some relief from hot temperatures in Texas this morning. (Weather Bell) — You’d have to go all the way to Perico, in the Panhandle, to find some relief from hot temperatures in Texas this morning. (Weather Bell)

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