Severe weather is likely on Sunday in or near Houston

We’ve been tracking the possibility of heavy rain and severe storms on Sunday for several days now, and unfortunately the forecast remains on target. If anything, the outlook is worse for Sunday than it’s been.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center issued an updated “severe weather outlook” for Sunday, and the entire Houston metro area now lies under a “moderate” risk, the fourth highest category out of five. According to Jeff Lindner, a meteorologist with the Harris County Flood Control District, the severe storm warning level has not been that high for Houston since February, 2008.

Severe weather outlook for Sunday in Houston. (NOAA)

A combination of a potent upper level storm system, moisture moving in from the Gulf of Mexico, and the potential for supercell development will set the stage for storms on Sunday, some of which may become severe.

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Forecast models still aren’t in agreement about whether chances for severe storms will begin around sunrise on Sunday, or hold off until the early afternoon hours for most of the Houston area. There also remains some uncertainty about whether the best setup will occur over Houston, or to the northwest of the metro area, between Austin and Lufkin. But tomorrow will definitely be a day to pay attention to forecasts (we’ll be covering), real-time conditions, and official warnings issued by the National Weather Service. We’re concerned about tornadoes—some of which may be more severe than the EF-0 and EF-1 the Houston area typically gets—large hail, and damaging winds.

Heavy rainfall is also a secondary threat, with most of the area likely picking up between 1 and 3 inches, and higher isolated amounts. In short—a mess.

Posted at 9:15am CT on Saturday by Eric

14 thoughts on “Severe weather is likely on Sunday in or near Houston

  1. John H

    Eric — does the higher risk category in the notice indicate that numerous events are expected ? The areas noted are absolutely huge swaths of land.


    1. Eric

      It is a general warning area. So multiple events are possible within the warned area, but certainly not the entire area will see severe weather.

  2. Katie

    What timeframe Sunday can we expect this severe weather? My daughter would also like you to fortune tell what scale of tornadoes are to be expected for the area. Thank you!

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