Summary: Houston is now solidly back in a warmer pattern, and this will eventually lead to some rain showers. The forecast for this weekend, in particular, is trending wetter. At this point I’d ballpark 1 to 3 inches of rain for most, but there is a risk for higher totals. We’ll be tracking it closely.
Wednesday
The dry air was nice while it lasted, but now Houston will see much more humid air for the next few days. Eventually the increasing moisture levels in the atmosphere will produce some rainfall, but we’re not there yet. Instead, today will just be mostly cloudy with highs in the low-80s. Winds from the south will pick up from the south, at times gusting to 20 or 25 mph. In areas with lots of oak trees, we’re likely to see ‘pollen’ rain, in which tree pollen fills the air as if it were raindrops.
Rodeo forecast
Aside from the breezy conditions, the weather will otherwise be mild heading into the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo this evening. Expect temperatures in the upper 70s with mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will be just a few degrees cooler after the show, and overnight lows are not going to drop very far. Houston probably will bottom out at only about 70 degrees tonight.
Thursday
This will be a similar day to Wednesday, albeit with even stronger wind gusts. I think we’ll see gusts from the south at up to 30 or 35 mph. This strong southerly flow will be in response to a cold front that is moving into Central Texas. However, I don’t think we’ll see any storms Thursday due to a capping inversion that will prevent all of this warm air at the surface from rising too high in the atmosphere. In the unlikely event that the cap does break, we could see some thunderstorms. But probably not. Highs should again be in the low 80s with mostly cloudy skies. Thursday night will be warm again.
Friday
The aforementioned front is likely to move closer to the Houston metro area on Friday, but stall out to our northwest. This leads to some uncertainty in the forecast, but I think there’s a healthy chance of rain, perhaps 50 percent or higher, during the daytime. Accumulations are likely to be on the order of tenths of an inch, so nothing too significant, probably. Highs, otherwise, will be about 80 degrees.
Saturday and Sunday
We’ve had some nice and sunny weekends of late. This will not be one of those. With plenty of moisture in place, and disturbances rotating through, the period of Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon looks rather wet. Most of the area is likely to pick up 1 to 3 inches, but there is a risk of higher end totals than this. Some models have been splashing accumulations of 4 or more inches, especially for areas along and north of Interstate 10. At this point I’m still not too concerned about flooding, but it’s something we’re going to keep a close eye on. In any case, if you have outdoor plans on Saturday or Saturday evening, bless your heart. They’re at risk due to showers and thunderstorms.
Highs this weekend will be in the 70s, with mostly cloudy skies. A front will finally shove all the way off the coast on Sunday, likely during the afternoon hours. This will bring an end to the rain and usher in some cooler and drier air. Lows on Sunday night will likely drop into the 50s.
Next week
Highs are likely to fall into the 60s with at least partly sunny skies by Monday and Tuesday, with lows in the 40s and 50s. There will be a nice slug of drier air for a few days, but the moisture will return by around Wednesday. This will set the stage for warmer weather and it looks like we’ll see some more rain by around Thursday-ish.
My allergies did not like the “pollen rain” forecast part. I can only hope the good weekend soaking will wash away a lot of the pollen.
Well, from rain Thur-Sun – to now, ‘maybe Fri’ and rain Sat-Sun. So hoping to get some Sat or Sun.
Up here on our acreage in Magnolia it is populated with Pine trees. Their pollen pods are still busy dropping. I spent about an hour walking the property yesterday and the pollen pods seem to have covered every square inch of land.
So yea, a nice rain will help subside the yellow landscape. I just stepped out onto the garage apron and it’s wet, so checked radar and strangely, a tiny drizzle cloud just passed by. Very odd.
I so appreciate your forecasts. They are detailed and let us know what to be expecting in our area – west of Houston/Harris county, north of I-10 & 290. Farm planning is helped by forecasts and so many televised only concentrate on metro areas. Thank you!
Trying to train for the MS 150 has been difficult…we have great weeks and the past few Saturdays have not been great! Hoping to get some miles in before all the rain on Sat, but doesn’t sound like it will be likely?
I’m curious that people are still riding the MS150. It’s been years since I rode it during the halcyon BP sponsor days. Do you ride alone or with a group?
After reading the forecast for today, I was surprised to encounter actual rain this morning in the Greenway Plaza/Upper Kirby District area. Probably not enough to accumulate, but certainly enough where I had to use my wipers.
Will this persist through the day or was it a brief anomaly in your forecast for today?