Month: March 2017

After our wild Wednesday, we were treated to absolutely gorgeous weather yesterday in Southeast Texas. That will lead to another winner of a day today, albeit warmer. We continue to watch the weekend however, and the chance for both severe weather and heavy rainfall. Here’s the stormy breakdown.


No weather trouble at all today. Expect ample sunshine, warm temperatures, and a breeze. We should make it into at least the middle 80s for high temperatures after a pleasant start this morning. Humidity will gradually work its way back ashore later today and tonight, but the majority of the day should feel pretty comfortable. That said, tree pollen (oak and cedar) remains high despite recent rain, and both grass pollen and mold spores are high also. So if you’re an allergy sufferer (raises hand), we still have a ways to go.

Quick cool thing I wanted to share. Here’s a satellite loop over South Texas this morning from the new GOES-16 satellite that was launched last November. This is experimental and non-operational data, as they’re still doing fine tuning, but check out how many lakes and different bodies of water you can detect on the satellite even at night.

Lakes and other bodies of water show up amazingly clear on a clear overnight in Texas. Experimental, non-operational data. (College of DuPage)

Amazing difference, and it’s like going from a clunky box of a TV to an HD set for meteorologists.


The forecast gets a little trickier Saturday. Humidity will continue to flood ashore through the day. I expect we’ll see increasing clouds after a fairly sunny start. The last couple days it’s looked close for perhaps a few storms as early as late Saturday afternoon. Recent model data limits those chances until late evening. So while I think we’ll be dry during the day and early evening Saturday, if you’ll be heading up to the Shell Houston Open or to the Dynamo/Red Bulls match or Whatever Fest east of Downtown, just be aware later in the day in case it does get stormy.

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A cool front moved into the Houston area during the overnight hours, and this will bring us a brief spell of slightly cooler air before conditions warm up again this weekend. We’ll also have to watch for the return of storms and widespread, heavy rain on Sunday.


Winds are blowing out of the northwest this morning, and could gust up to about 20mph later today. Even after skies clear out we should expect high temperatures only to rise into the upper 70s today—alas there won’t be too many days this cool again until late next fall. Lows tonight should fall into the upper 50s for the northern half of the Houston area, and to around 60 degrees closer to the coast. Enjoy the drier air.


After a cooler start on Friday morning, conditions will quickly warm under mostly sunny skies. Look for high temperatures in the mid-80s across Houston. I think some areas further inland, such as College Station, could see highs in the upper 80s although I don’t think they’ll quite make 90 degrees. Lows Friday night will be 5 to 7 degrees warmer than Thursday.

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Good morning. The big concern today is a line of strong thunderstorms moving into metro Houston this morning from the west. As of about 6:30am CT, the leading edge of the main line of storms was located at Schulenburg.

Location of severe storms as of 6:35am CT on Wednesday. (Intellicast)

These storms will advance into Houston later this morning, likely reaching western parts of the metro area between 7 and 9am CT and moving into the central Houston area by 8 to 10am. The main threats from these storms include damaging winds (gusts of 40mph or greater), heavy rains, and possibly some tornadoes. As these storms have moved across central Texas they have produced a large amount of lightning, and briefly torrential rain has caused some short-lived street flooding.

Fortunately, the storms are moving to the east at a good clip, may weaken a bit as they approach the coast, and should pass through most areas in about an hour. After the main line moves through this morning, some additional, lighter rain may linger across parts of Houston this afternoon and evening, before a cold front moves through tonight. This should lead to briefly cooler weather on Thursday—it’s going to be a spectacular day, plan to spend some time outdoors if possible—before we warm up again heading into the weekend.

After sunny conditions Saturday, we’ll again have to watch for the possibility of heavy rain on Sunday, although models have backed off some of their extreme predictions. I’d still expect a solid 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain on Sunday and Sunday night for the metro area, and conditions will again be in place at least for the possibility of some severe thunderstorms.

Posted at 6:45am CT on Wednesday by Eric

Good morning. We have some potentially dynamic weather to talk about for the week ahead, with the potential for storms and heavy rain, so let’s get right to it.


Conditions will be fairly pleasant for Houston today, with partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the low 80s. The only blemish will come from gusty southerly winds, bringing moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico, and blowing up to about 20mph. Lows will again be very warm for March tonight, only falling to around 70 degrees for most of the region.


As we’ve been discussing, a potent upper-level storm system will sweep across the central and southern United States on Tuesday and Wednesday, generating enough lift and instability to produce some potentially severe weather. Timing remains a little unclear, but right now storm development in Houston seems most likely during the late morning or early afternoon, and running through the evening hours on Wednesday. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center favors the northern half of the metro area as most likely to see development.

NOAA storm outlook for Wednesday. (NOAA)

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After a mild Saturday and Sunday—a storm system that raked Oklahoma and northern Texas Sunday evening stayed to the north of Houston during the overnight hours—we may see more storms later this week.


It’s a warm start to the day, with low temperatures only falling to about 70 degrees. Under partly to mostly cloudy skies today, highs will probably climb into the low- to mid-80s this afternoon. Some lower pressure in the atmosphere may provide for a chance of rain showers later this afternoon, but any accumulations should be slight, and I think shower development will be pretty spotty.


Skies clear some, and we’ll again see highs in the low- to mid-80s. The dominant feature Tuesday will be southerly winds, gusting to 20 mph or above. This will herald rising moisture levels, and a good chance of rain on Wednesday.


In combination with an upper-level disturbance, rising moisture levels will combine to produce a healthy chance of rain and the possibility of severe weather on Wednesday. While the instability in the atmosphere looks marginal for tornado formation, we can’t rule them out, along with the possibility of damaging winds and hail.

Storm outlook for Wednesday. (NOAA)

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The storms should be fairly progressive, continuing to move from west to east, so I’m not too concerned about the potential for flooding—I think most areas will see less than 1 inch of rain. But some locally heavy rainfall is definitely a possibility, like we saw Friday night in parts of Houston.

Thursday and Friday

Some light rain may linger into Wednesday night or early Thursday morning, but the upper-level low will also usher a cool front through the area, bringing some relief from the humidity. There’s some question as to how much cooler it will get, but for now I’ll peg highs to end the week at about 80 degrees, with a chance for most of the region to see nighttime temperatures in the 50s on Thursday, and especially Friday, morning.

Next weekend

By Saturday—or more likely Sunday—healthy rain chances return to the forecast. Along with high temperatures around 80 degrees next weekend, we’re going to have to consider the possibility of some rain showers, as the region may pick up another inch or so between Saturday afternoon and Monday. Precise timing and amounts are still hazy this far out, however.

Posted at 6:55am CT on Monday by Eric