Month: September 2019

Some readers may note that the National Hurricane Center has begun tracking an upper-level low pressure system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (note, this is distinct from Tropical Storm Humberto). This is because the forecast models have gotten a little bit more excited about the possibility of this system evolving from a low pressure system in the upper levels of the atmosphere into a low pressure circulation at the surface.

The hurricane center gives this feature a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm as it moves westward toward the lower or central Texas coast, probably coming ashore on Monday or Tuesday.

I’m sure there will be a lot of hoopla about this system over the next couple of days, and some of that is justifiable because one never likes to see low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico in mid-September. With that being said, this one has a long way to go before becoming organized. All of the best global models keep it at tropical depression status right now. So while we cannot rule anything out. I am reasonably confident that we are not looking at a situation in which a hurricane approaches Texas early next week.

However, even disorganized tropical systems can produce heavy rainfall, and that will be a threat along the Texas coast beginning on Monday. How much of a threat remains to be seen, as there is a considerable spread in the model forecasts. The European model paints a bullseye of 4-6 inches around Matagorda Bay and Victoria, with lesser amounts north and south of there, including for the Houston region. The GFS model keeps totals mostly confined to 2 to 3 inches along most of the Texas coast. Another model we’ve been following more, the Germany-based ICON forecast system, keeps the heaviest rain offshore but does bring 4 to 6 inches into Harris County during the middle of next week.

The bottom line is that we are not overly concerned about development of this system into something that threatens Texas from a wind or surge perspective. However, we are watching for the potential for heavy rain during the Monday through Wednesday period next week. We’ll be watching it closely and updating accordingly.

Over the last 5 days, most of us have seen at least some rainfall with a smattering of storms each day. Not all of us have seen significant rainfall, however.

Apologies for the map that is clearly excluding some parts of the area. If you’d like a bigger view, you can view recent rain totals at Harris County Flood Control. Amounts of up to 2 inches or so have occurred near Acres Homes, Sugar Land, and out by Katy, with higher amounts in a few spots near there. Then, you have spots like the East End, far northwest Harris County, and some pockets south and also northeast of Houston that have registered little to no rain at all. For those seeking rain, we’ve got nothing good to report for the next couple days.

Today & weekend

Today and tomorrow should be fairly straightforward forecasts. We should see ample sunshine and hot temperatures. Look for daytime highs in the mid- to upper-90s both days. Nighttime lows into Saturday morning should get to the mid- to upper-70s. If we’re looking for a bright spot in the relentless heat, it’s that the nighttime temperatures and humidity levels will not be terribly oppressive. Heat index values should be mostly under control.

Sunday gets a tiny bit trickier. Moisture from an area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere will take over most of the western Gulf but primarily offshore. We should see at least a few showers being flung toward Galveston and other areas southeast of Highway 59/I-69 on Sunday morning or afternoon. But most places will probably stay dry. We’ll start in the 70s and end in the mid-90s.

See full post

Good morning. Lots to discuss this morning from heat this weekend, plenty of activity in the tropics, and longing for the season’s first real cold front.

Thursday

Moisture levels are falling over the region, but they’re still high enough to squeeze out some scattered showers and thunderstorms. By now you know the drill; most of the area probably won’t see rain, but the areas that do could see brief, intense thunderstorms. Highs should make it into the mid-90s under partly sunny skies.

Friday and Saturday

High pressure should reign, making for a pair of mostly hot and sunny days for the Houston region. Look for highs in the mid- to upper-90s. These will be some of the last really hot days of 2019 for Houston as we get deeper into September.

Sunday and beyond

Our weather for the second half of the weekend and next week will depend on the track of Invest 95L, discussed below. Most likely, we will begin to see elevated moisture levels pulsing in from the Gulf of Mexico, leading to a 30 to 40 percent chance of rain from Sunday onward. But overall confidence is not particularly high. The question is mostly whether we’re mostly dry, or see a pattern of scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. Highs should be somewhere in the low- to mid-90s.

See full post

Good morning! Our Wednesday post is coming to you quite a bit earlier than usual as both Matt and I are traveling. In this case, I’ve gone west on assignment, and it’s easier to post at night than in the morning. Bottom line: you can expect the same weather forecasts, with new-and-improved time zones. (We’re both back in Houston this weekend).

Wednesday

If you liked Tuesday, have we got a deal for you—conditions on Wednesday are likely to be similar, albeit with temperatures perhaps a few degrees cooler. Yesterday, we mentioned the possibility of brief, strong storms and that’s precisely was some areas in the Brazos Valley got on Tuesday with some strong winds and heavy rainfall. Similar conditions will be possible in Houston on Wednesday, but it’s hard to peg where. Generally, I think we’ll see scattered storms pop up closer to the coast before noon, and then steadily migrate inland during the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be pretty strong, but should not persist too long. Look for highs in the mid-90s.

Thursday and Friday

As high pressure begins to take hold we probably can expect rain chances to fall off to around 20 percent. Highs should make it into the mid-90s under mostly sunny skies.

See full post