Month: October 2020

Good morning. If you’re out and about near Galveston Bay this morning, please take a few extra minutes due to fog. Skies will clear out later this morning with mostly clear conditions, and we expect sunny weather through the weekend.

Wednesday

Houston remains caught between high pressure over the eastern United States, and low pressure to our southwest. This creates a fairly stagnant pattern, with our surface conditions dictated by an onshore flow. As a result, high temperatures today will again push up into the mid- to upper-80s. Winds will be light, out of the east and southeast. And low temperatures again tonight will only drop into the low 70s for most of the area. Rain chances are about 10 percent, or less.

Thursday and Friday

More of the same, to be honest, until Friday night. A front will approach the region on Friday afternoon or evening, and it should reach the I-69 corridor by around midnight, and the coast by or before sunrise on Saturday morning. This is a weak front, so don’t expect fireworks. I expect its passage will be dry in terms of rainfall, and should only moderate dewpoints and temperatures a few degrees—it’s impact will be more significantly felt well inland, in places such as College Station.

Saturday and Sunday

Highs on Saturday may dip into the low- to mid-80s due to the front, but should rebound back into the upper-80s on Sunday.

Next week

So what’s the progress on a stronger front early next week? We’re still in what I’d call watch-and-see mode, but I’m penciling in its passage for some time on Tuesday. This has the potential to be a pretty strong front, but there’s still a lot of fuzz in the models and the signal is not overwhelming. I think that when the front finally makes it we will see a pretty decent shot of rainfall, and since the region has been rather dry we’ll take what we can get. Hopefully we can have this part of the forecast nailed down better by tomorrow morning.

Good morning. Houston’s overall pattern remains more or less the same. We’re expecting a warmish fall week—with high temperatures mostly in the upper 80s—before potentially a slight cool down this weekend. If you’re looking for a more hearty taste of fall (raises hand) a stronger front will probably move through in about a week from now, or slightly before.

Tuesday

A few lucky areas picked up some rain showers on Monday, but we’re now entering a period during which daily rain chances probably won’t rise much above 10 percent for most days. Houston’s weather will be guided this week by an onshore flow, felt at the surface as light southeasterly winds, which will pump up humidity levels while also keeping a lid on highs. With partly sunny skies, high temperatures today should reach into the mid-80s. Overnight lows will fall to around 70 degrees—warmer along the coast, and slightly cooler inland.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The rest of the week should produce conditions that are much the same. We should see plenty of sunshine, with highs generally in the mid- to upper-80s. This is about 10 degrees warmer than we normally see in late October. Low temperatures should remain around 70 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast for this weekend is not yet set in stone. We still think a weak cool front is going to approach the area and move into Houston late Friday or early Saturday. But will it reach the Interstate 69 corridor? Or will it push all the way to the coast?  It’s difficult to say. If you live in Katy I’d feel pretty confident in seeing a slight dose of cooler and drier air. But Baytown or Seabrook? Perhaps not so much. In any case, any effects should be short-lived as the front washes out on Sunday. There’s a slight chance of showers with the front, but for the most part we expect sunny skies this weekend.

Next week

Global models are in fairly good agreement that a robust cold front will push into Houston late next Monday or Tuesday, and this will bring a decent spell of colder weather. How cold? I’d hazard highs in the 60s and 70s, and lows in the 40s and 50s, perhaps. But please don’t hold us to that just yet. For now it’s enough to know that our warm weather this week probably will change in a meaningful way next week. Hopefully we’ll see some rain with the front, too.

Tropics

You may have seen that Tropical Storm Epsilon formed in the open Atlantic. It should steer just east of Bermuda toward the end of this week, and remain a “fish storm.” There’s also a yellow blob in the northwestern Caribbean Sea that we’ve had some questions about. Folks, it ain’t coming to Texas. Our hurricane season is over.

Good morning, and welcome to a new week. Before we get into our daily forecast—and it’s going to be fairly warm and humid until at least the weekend—I wanted to offer a quick look at the forecast for our upcoming winter.

We are now reasonably confident that La Niña conditions will persist in the equatorial Pacific Ocean this winter, and that typically leads to a fairly consistent pattern for the United States. Specifically for Texas, it tends to yield more mild winters with less precipitation. NOAA’s updated, official outlooks for winter conditions—defined here as the months of December, January, and February—were just released. And they reflect this La Niña-like pattern. Here’s the temperature outlook:

And below you will find the corresponding outlook for precipitation. Will this include snow? The likelihood of warmer temperatures lowers the probability of this, but there is always the old wives’ tale that says Houston will see snow during the winter following a tropical system landfall. So we’re not ruling it out.

Now, let’s jump into the forecast for the week ahead.

Monday

A cold front is pushing through Texas this morning, but it should stall out around College Station, and will not bring any cooler or drier air into Houston. However, the front will help engender some scattered showers over the region today—ultimately probably about 30 percent of the area will see rain. Under mostly cloudy skies, we can expect highs to reach into the mid-80s, with lows unlikely to fall below 70 for all but areas far north and west. Winds will be light, out of the south.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

The region will be largely stuck in the same pattern for much of the work week, with partly to mostly sunny skies, highs in the mid-80s or so, and plenty of humidity. Nighttime temperatures will probably again not drop below 70 degrees. Rain chances will not exactly be zero, but they’re on the order of 10 to 20 percent for most days.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Our weather this weekend will be determined by whether a weakening cool front makes it all the way through Houston later on Friday or Saturday. The overall pattern is not fully supportive of the this front diving southward, and off the coast, but it seems possible. If there’s no front, expect more of the same. If the front does make it, expect a pleasant, slightly cooler weekend with drier air. Rain chances seem modest either way.

Next week

The forecast models are hinting at a stronger front coming through by next Monday or Tuesday, and there does seem to be more support for this one’s passage. If the front verifies, we could see lows in the 40s for areas well inland, and 50s in Houston next week. But let’s see a few more days of data before we fully buy into this one.

Good morning. We’ve had quite the array of rainfall totals across the region since yesterday evening.

Areas near Spring and The Woodlands saw north of an inch and a half of rain, while parts of Galveston and Brazoria Counties saw virtually no rain at all. East Bernard (not shown) in Wharton County also likely received close to 2 inches of rainfall.

Today

The front is through, and showers continue in its wake. These showers may be a bit stubborn to end. Areas north and west of Houston will likely see brightening skies this afternoon. But showers could persist off and on elsewhere. We’ll struggle a bit in the temperature department today, with cloud cover dictating how warm we get. Those that see sunshine could push 70 degrees, while those under clouds and showers through early afternoon may not get much above the low-60s. Northeast winds will be noticeable, giving today a distinct autumn feel as they gust to 20 mph or so in Houston and as high as 35 mph near the bays and Gulf.

Weekend

Overall, if you have weekend plans, you’ll be fine in most cases. There’s a little nuance to touch on though.

Saturday will be a bit of a toss-up day. The morning should be beautiful, cool and crisp, with temperatures generally in the 50s inland and 60s at the coast.

But we will see some cloud cover around, especially extending from southwest to northeast through the day. A little sporadic light rain or drizzle will be possible, mainly southwest of Houston. High temperatures should find their way into the upper-70s in most spots, perhaps 80 degrees or so with enough sunshine. Winds should be a more reasonable 5 to 15 mph.

On Sunday, the morning won’t be nearly as cool, with lows in the 70s at the coast and mid- to upper-60s inland. Onshore flow resumes, and you’ll notice building humidity by Sunday morning. We should see a mix of sun and clouds, and an isolated shower can’t be entirely ruled out. Looks for highs back firmly into the 80s in most spots.

Early next week

Monday should be a similar day to Sunday with warm temperatures, high humidity, and at least a chance for a passing shower or storm. Tuesday likely carries slightly better chances for scattered showers or thunderstorms. More of the same follows Wednesday. It’s a bit tough to pin down which days and times will have the highest rain chances, as we’re dealing with some fast moving disturbances that are difficult to time out this far in advance. But in general, early next week is clouds & sun, a chance for thunderstorms, and highs in the 80s, lows mostly in the 70s. Our next front is unlikely before next weekend.

Tropics

Eric’s touched on the tropics a bit this week. The bottom line is that we have nothing at all to worry about here.

The Caribbean system may develop, but it would track due north and eventually northeast, away from the Gulf and probably away from the U.S. Another system seems likely to develop in the open waters of the Atlantic. The next two names on the list are Epsilon and Zeta.