Month: December 2020

We’ve gotten into quite a groove lately with repeating rounds of cold fronts pushing through the Houston area. Since the beginning of November, I count about 13, give or take, individual cold frontal passages here in Houston. That’s about one every 3 to 4 days on average, although after some warmth in November the pace has accelerated in recent weeks. In fact, this is the first time since 2011 that we have not hit 80 degrees in the month of December at least once to this point. If you keep cold fronts coming at a quick pace, you really tend to cap how warm we can get in between. So this has been good for us in terms of keeping temperatures closer to normal for this time of year. And we have one, likely two more fronts coming over the next week.

Today & Saturday

It’s another chilly start to the day across the region. As of 6:45 AM, we had 30s north and 40s south (50s along the coast).

Bush Airport officially hit 35° this morning, but that was around 4 AM, and as some cloud cover has pushed into the area, temps have risen a few degrees. Skies should get progressively more cloudy today. Even with those clouds, we should be able to punch through the 50s and into the 60s later today, as building onshore flow pumps in warmer, more humid air. Some light rain or drizzle and mist will be possible along the coast and south of Houston by late afternoon or evening.

Overnight, we continue to see humidity build up, which should allow temperatures to either hold where they are or even warm a bit. No 30s tomorrow morning! Showers and patches of fog, mist, or light rain should begin to break out across the area tonight as well.

For Saturday, a period of showers and thunderstorms will be likely as a cold front begins to approach around late morning or early afternoon. Tomorrow should not be a total washout, but the majority of the morning looks unpleasant. Rain should shut off from west to east during the afternoon, though some of it could be heavy before it does so.

How much rain are we talking? Probably a half-inch or so on average. Some locations, especially east of I-45 could see higher totals with as much as 1.5 inches or so possible near Beaumont and Lake Charles. A few locations, especially west of the city may see less than a half-inch. Skies should begin to at least partially clear on Saturday evening.

Temperatures will top off near 70° before dropping back into the 60s or upper-50s during the afternoon behind the front.

Sunday & Monday

Look for nice weather to slowly emerge after Saturday. Sunday should see morning lows in the 40s for most folks. Low clouds may remain stuck over the area into Sunday morning, but by Sunday afternoon we should see clearing and sunshine. Look for 10 to 15 mph winds, and high temperatures on Sunday peaking in the low-60s.

We will see lows in the 30s and 40s Sunday night into Monday morning, followed up by a nice sun-filled day Monday with highs in the 60s. Some high clouds could begin to gray the sky a bit by Monday afternoon, especially south and west of Houston.

Tuesday

Tuesday should end up being partly to mostly sunny and warmer, with temperatures starting the day in the 40s and lower 50s and afternoon highs in the 60s, perhaps near 70° in some spots. Some clouds could gradually creep back in through the day.

Wednesday & Christmas Eve/Day

We’re continuing to gain confidence that a cold front is indeed going to come through the area before Christmas Eve. This likely means at least some showers on Wednesday. The timing of the front may have sped up some since yesterday, with some models getting it through Houston on Wednesday afternoon now. There seems to be an increasing chance that both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day will feature sunshine, morning lows in the 30s or 40s, and daytime highs in the 50s. Winds will likely be a bit gusty on Christmas Eve, but they should settle down Thursday night, allowing Santa and his reindeer to have a smooth flight into Southeast Texas. We will have more on this for you Monday.

Good morning—and is definitely a cold one, especially for those of you in areas like Conroe and Cleveland who are experiencing temperatures in the 20s. We’ll now see a warming trend through Saturday, before another front arrives to keep our weather on the cool and sunny side. Our forecast for Christmas Day continues to call for a cold start and a cool day, although there remains a fair bit of wiggle room in the details.

Thursday

Sunny skies and light winds will allow temperatures to rise this morning, and highs should get into the mid- to upper-50s by this afternoon. Our skies will remain clear heading into this evening, although a light wind shift from the east should make for a slightly more moderate night. Expect lows in Houston to drop to around 40 degrees, with warmer conditions along the coast, and cooler weather inland.

Friday

As winds become more southeasterly on Friday, we’ll start to see the development of a few clouds in the morning. As highs reach into the mid-60s or so during the afternoon hours, we should start to see partly to mostly cloudy skies. We may see some light rain chances during the evening hours, but the better opportunities for rain will come after midnight.

Saturday

An approaching cold front will help generate widespread light to moderate showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, on Saturday. For now, I expect accumulations will be 0.25 to 0.75 inch for most areas, and rains should end by the afternoon or early evening hours as a front pushes through the metro area. Highs Saturday night should reach about 70 degrees ahead of the front, dropping fairly quickly after the front’s passage. Overnight lows on Saturday night should generally drop into the 40s.

Sunday

If you have outdoor plans for the weekend, Sunday should be the pick of the litter, with clearing skies and highs in the mid-60s. Winds will generally be light, but could remain at about 15 mph just along the coast as cool, dry air moves into the region. Lows Sunday night will again drop into the 40s.

The week of Christmas

We’ll see a warming trend beginning on Tuesday as the onshore flow becomes more pronounced, and temperatures probably will reach 70 degrees by Wednesday. Some light rain showers will be possible mid-week with the increased moisture. All eyes will then turn toward our next cold front, which will set the stage for conditions on Christmas Eve and Day.

Right now there seems to be general agreement in the models that this front will push into Houston late on Wednesday evening, or early Thursday morning—but with nearly seven days until that time frame I’m hesitant to lend too much credence to precise timing. However, under this scenario Christmas Eve may see clearing skies, and Christmas morning would be quite cold. I think temperatures could be in the 30s for much of the area. Alas, the atmosphere would be dry, so don’t expect a White Christmas in Houston this year.

Good morning. Skies are clearing across the metro area, and the region will now see a few days of sunshine before the arrival of yet another front brings the chance of showers and thunderstorms this weekend. But mostly, we’re just going to see cool, December-like weather in the days ahead.

Wednesday

Winds are blowing out of the northwest this morning at 10 to 15 mph across the area, and this influx of colder and drier air will make for a cool day. High temperatures are unlikely to rise further than the mid-50s, despite the ample sunshine. Mostly clear skies and light winds will make for a cold night, with a light freeze possible north and west of Houston, with the urban center likely remaining several degrees above freezing.

Thursday

We can expect another splendidly sunny day, with temperatures a few degrees warmer as highs climb to around 60 degrees for much of the area. Winds will shift to come from the south later in the day on Thursday, and this will make for a warmer night, with lows likely only falling into the 40s for most areas.

Friday

We’ll start to see some clouds on Friday, and high temperatures should push into the mid- to upper 60s in response to the onshore flow. At this point I think skies will remain mostly sunny throughout the day, with any rain holding off until the evening or more likely overnight hours. Lows on Friday night may not drop below 60 degrees for some areas.

Saturday

The best chances for rain will come between midnight on Friday and Saturday before noon. Most areas will probably see only a few tenths of an inch of rain before a front arrives during the afternoon hours to dry the atmosphere out. We may end up seeing at least partly sunny skies on Saturday, in addition to the rain. Highs will probably reach 70 degrees ahead of the front before a chilly night.

Sunday

Expect mostly sunny skies, with highs perhaps in the low 60s. Sunday night may see temperatures drop into the low 40s for much of the area except for the coast.

Next week, and Christmas Day

The region should warm up back to near 70 degrees by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, and then it becomes a waiting game to determine the timing and strength of the next front that will determine our weather for Christmas Day. Right now, I think this front may arrive any time between next Wednesday, Wednesday night, or Christmas Eve. At this point, the bulk of the model guidance shows the coldest morning coming on Christmas morning, with the potential for lows in the low 40s, or even upper 30s, but it’s difficult to have much confidence at this point in precise temperatures. Some rainfall may well accompany this front, but it likely will end before temperatures get cold enough to produce any chance of wintry precipitation—sorry kids.