Matt Lanza

Post-Harvey week in review: December 11, 2017

Welcome back to our weekly Monday wrap-up of Harvey and flooding-related news you may have missed over the last seven days. Let us know if we missed anything in the comments. Previous recaps are here:

Post-Harvey week in review: December 4, 2017
Post-Harvey week in review: November 27, 2017
Post-Harvey week in review: November 20, 2017

Reads of the Week

Sunk Costs – Back-to-back record flooding along the Brazos River has forced people in Richmond to make an excruciating choice: Stay or go? (Texas Observer): The Brazos River at Richmond has seen four of its 10 highest crests on record since May of 2015. Some residents have flooded multiple times, and they now grapple with the question of where to go from here.

Developing Storm Part 1: Nature ruled, man reacted. Hurricane Harvey was Houston’s reckoning (Houston Chronicle): A multi-part series from the Chronicle began last week, and it aims to discuss the storm in the context of it not being exclusively a *natural* disaster. It’s worth reading. The first part discusses the reactions and decisions that had to be made in the heat of battle.

Developing Storm Part 2: Build, flood, rebuild: flood insurance’s expensive cycle (Houston Chronicle): Part two of the Chronicle series talks about the history of the National Flood Insurance Program. It discusses in depth how Congress has failed to act to make NFIP more fiscally viable.

Surveys & Symposiums

Survey: Harvey’s wrath affected 66 percent of Texans in its path (Corpus Christi Caller-Times): Two-thirds of people surveyed in counties affected by Harvey report that they have some sort of damage from the storm. They also report that help hasn’t quite been adequate to this point.

Report: An uneven recovery after Harvey threatens to leave people behind (Rice Kinder Institute): Almost half of people from Harris County that responded to an Episcopal Health Foundation and Kaiser Family Foundation survey lost income from Harvey. Seventeen percent of people from 24 counties surveyed are now suffering a new or worsening health condition. Harvey’s damage has stretched people and resources thin and has led to cascading impacts that will continue to be felt in the region and threatens to leave vulnerable and lower-income populations behind.

Where do we go from here? Houston-area leaders grapple with Harvey aftermath (Houston Chronicle): The Houston Chronicle held a symposium last week to discuss Houston after Harvey. Here are some highlights from that event.

(Space City Weather is brought to you this month by the Law Office of Murray Newman)

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A Friday morning Houston winter wonderland

Roughly three and a half months ago, Houstonians took to social media late into the night to post frightening pictures and harrowing accounts of flooding devastating the city. Houstonians took to social media again late into last night and early this morning, this time to post festive pictures and share (mostly) joyous accounts of about as good a snow event as you could hope for in Southeast Texas.

As I write this, we don’t have official totals in yet, but based on pictures from all over, it looks like anywhere from a coating to 2″, give or take, in most of the Houston area. Obviously, College Station did quite well last night. They received 5″ officially, which would rank it their second biggest snow on record.

For the “official” number in Houston, I’d expect somewhere in the ballpark of 1.5″, which would rank somewhere in the top 10 or 15 for Houston snowfalls on record. The king, unlikely to ever be dethroned, is Valentine’s Day 1895’s estimated 20″, followed by 4.4″ on February 12, 1960.

This Morning

I know some people aren’t exactly overjoyed at the snow, especially those commuting early this morning. If you’re one of those folks, the good news is that most, if not all of the snow will be gone by about 9 AM.

Radar as of 6 AM shows lingering light snow near the coast and Bay Area. Snow should end completely by 7 AM or so. (GRLevel3)

That said, roads are icy in spots this morning, especially the flyovers on freeways. Use extreme caution while commuting. Any icy patches should dissipate as we warm above freezing by 7-8 AM. Temperatures will actually rise now that the snow has ended.

As we go through the rest of the morning, expect to see mainly cloudy skies. But things will get noticeably brighter as we work toward afternoon, and I think hopefully by Noon or so, Houston will see the sun again for the first time since before this cold snap began.

(Space City Weather is brought to you this month by the Law Office of Murray Newman)

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Could Houston see ice pellets or snowflakes in the air this week?

As Eric noted this morning, it looked possible that areas well north of Houston could see some ice pellets (sleet) mix in with the rain tonight. That continues to look like a possibility, and the forecast looks intriguing beyond tonight too. Let’s talk wintry weather chances.

Tonight

Radar as of 5:30 PM Wednesday shows a good bit of shower activity in the region, especially north of Houston. Rain has been pretty light and mostly just added to the dreary ambiance of the atmosphere today.

Radar as of 5:40 PM showed light rain north and west of Houston, with a smattering of patchy drizzle elsewhere. (GRLevel3)

As we go into tonight, expect a few more rounds of rain, perhaps steady at times. Temperatures tonight should hold steady or continue a slow drop over most of the area, and I’d expect overnight lows to bottom out in the 38-42° range on average. That’s safely above freezing, so in and around Houston, I’d honestly be surprised to see anything other than plain rain tonight. North of Houston (say up toward Conroe, Hempstead, or Brenham), I wouldn’t be shocked if you hear some “pings” of ice pellets mixed in with the rain late tonight.

Thursday

I think Thursday is pretty straightforward here. We should see continued light rain much of the day. Temperatures aren’t going to warm up much. Upper-40s should be about as good as we do in some spots. Mid-40s will suffice in others. But mild-ish temperatures should prevent any wintry precipitation from mixing in.

(Space City Weather is brought to you this month by the Law Office of Murray Newman)

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Post-Harvey week in review: December 4, 2017

We’re back with another Monday wrap-up of the last week’s stories about Houston’s recovery from Harvey and flooding issues in our region. Feel free to share any that we missed in the comments. If you missed the last two weeks of recaps, you can find them here:

Post-Harvey week in review: November 27, 2017
Post-Harvey week in review: November 20, 2017

Reads of the week

Early results of federal rainfall study show dramatic growth in 100-year storm (Houston Chronicle): An initial study from NOAA (currently in the peer review process) suggests that the rainfall of a 100-year storm in Harris County (a storm that has a 1% chance of occurring in any given year) has increased by 3-5″ since 2001. If that holds up, that has enormous implications on development and how we define floodplains in the Houston area.

Furthering the point that all this is very preliminary, Jeff Lindner of Harris County Flood Control points out that there are still some questions about the gage data and methodology that was used.

This will be an important story to follow in the months ahead.

Developers Said Their Homes Were Out of a Flood Zone. Then Harvey Came. (New York Times): At least 6,000 properties in locations that were redesignated after previously being classified as in flood zones ended up with damage from flooding during Harvey. Map changes are legal and come via raised lots, levees, drainage systems, water-detention ponds, etc. But the margin for error is small, and not all property owners realized this. A provocative story with a focus on The Woodlands.

(Space City Weather is brought to you this month by the Law Office of Murray Newman)

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