Matt Lanza

What to know about the next tropical system

When tropical systems get going, the internet can be a noisy place. So Eric and I thought it would be a good idea to give everyone a user’s guide to the next tropical system that you’ll be hearing about.

What is it?

Invest 97L is the current classification of the tropical wave on the way to the Caribbean. Satellite imagery from late this afternoon shows Invest 97L approaching the Leeward and Windward Islands.

Invest 97L is rotating toward the Caribbean islands this evening. (NOAA/NHC)
Invest 97L is rotating toward the Caribbean islands this evening. (NOAA/NHC)

 

“Invests” are the classification given by the National Hurricane Center to tropical disturbances that may develop into organized depressions, storms, or future hurricanes. There are numerous “invests” each hurricane season, and the cycle runs from 90 to 99 and then repeats. Basically, it’s a nice way to keep disturbances orderly in their computer systems for tracking and monitoring purposes.

The National Hurricane Center sent out reconnaissance aircraft today and were unable to find a center of circulation at the surface, so they’ve held off on classifying this as a tropical depression or tropical storm (which will be named Matthew, assuming it gets there). 

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Will our first autumn front arrive?

Autumn is often a time for weather forecast headaches. We’re wasting no time this season, with our first legitimate cold front of the season knocking on the door next week, though there’s a good chance the door won’t open. Let’s talk details.

Today & Saturday

First, the “easy” part of the forecast. Summer-lite continues the next couple days. We’ll see some showers and perhaps some thunderstorms off the Gulf each morning and afternoon. These will be of the typical Southeast Texas scattered and hit/miss variety. If you have outdoor plans the next couple evenings, go ahead with them, but just know there may be a downpour or two to contend with.

Heading to the Dynamo match, Rice game, or Astros game? Maybe a downpour, but not terrible.
Heading to the Dynamo match, Rice game, or Astros game? Maybe a downpour, but not terrible.

 

Temperatures will remain on the warmer side. Expect highs near 90 or in the low 90s. Overnight lows will remain miserably warm, in the mid to upper 70s inland to near 80 at the coast.

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An unsettled weather pattern for Houston

The Houston area has had an interesting couple of days. I think Eric and I have both been surprised by the intensity of some of the sea breeze storms that have fired the last two days. Yesterday saw areas north of Downtown get hammered, with US-59 between Tidwell and Little York especially hard hit by over two and a half inches of rain.

A couple slow moving storms dumped 1-3" of rain north of Downtown yesterday afternoon. (Harris County Flood Control)
A couple slow moving storms dumped 1-3″ of rain north of Downtown yesterday afternoon. (Harris County Flood Control)

So as we go into the weekend, shall we expect more?

Today

We’re already seeing a few showers this morning, mainly in Northeast Harris and Liberty Counties.

Radar shows just a few showers drifting north and northeast toward Liberty County. (GR Level 3)
Radar at 6:15 AM shows just a few showers drifting north and northeast toward Liberty County. (GR Level 3)

As we head into this afternoon, storms may be a bit more numerous compared to the last couple days, but that won’t mean that everyone sees rain. As is usually the case, sporadic downpours will be capable of producing 1-3″ of rain in a few spots this afternoon. I suspect a good bunch of the area will not see showers though. So it’s a game of luck today, with the most favored areas initially being east of I-45 and south of US-59 as you head southwest of Houston, then spreading north and west.

HRRR model suggests widely scattered showers & storms this afternoon, diminishing in the evening. (Weather Bell)
HRRR model suggests widely scattered showers & storms this afternoon, diminishing in the evening. (Weather Bell)

 

Temperatures have struck the mid 90s before rain the last few days. We may do that again today, but I’m guessing that with showers getting an earlier start, low 90s may be the best we can do.

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A mixed Labor Day Weekend for Southeast Texas

East Texas has been on the dry side of Hurricane Hermine in the Eastern Gulf. Typically we have onshore winds this time of year, but the last couple days, we’ve had winds coming from the north and northeast, ushering in just enough slightly drier air and sinking air to help temperatures surge into the mid and upper 90s (97° officially yesterday). Dry air is easier to heat up than high humidity air, so it’s been a hot couple of days. We’ll begin to transition back to typical late summer this weekend.

Today

Things start to get a little tricky today. Fortunately they won’t have major implications, but it may impact the details of the forecast a bit. A weak cold front to our north will drop southward today. It should essentially stall out and start to fall apart over us or to our north. Combined with the sea breeze returning, those two will act as a minor focus for some showers and storms this afternoon. The best chance for storms today will be west of I-45, but they will be very sporadic and hit or miss.

HRRR model forecast shows very spotty showers this afternoon, primarily west of I-45. (Weather Bell)
HRRR model forecast shows very spotty showers this afternoon, primarily west of I-45. (Weather Bell)

With a little more humidity and onshore flow (and storm chances), we’ll see high temperatures just short of where they’ve been the last couple days. Expect low to mid 90s today instead of the mid to upper 90s of Thursday.

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