Matt Lanza

One final hurrah at comfortable weather before summer sets in?

Houston: Get ready for one, potentially final splash of beautiful weather. Never say never, but it’s getting deep into spring now, and any opportunities at comfortable weather can be fleeting around here. But what we have coming this weekend will be absolutely sublime. Let’s get into details.

Today

No real issues are expected today. Yes, an isolated shower could occur, but it looks like a very slim chance. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, with slowly increasing humidity. Expect mid to perhaps upper 80s this afternoon.

Saturday’s front

Let’s talk cold front. Expect the front to traverse the region from northwest to southeast through the day, arriving in Conroe around mid-morning, Bush Airport and Katy mid to late morning, South Houston around midday, and Galveston through Lake Jackson around early to mid-afternoon.

Dewpoint forecast for Saturday shows extremely refreshing air arriving from northwest to southeast through the day, lagging the front by just a few hours. (Weather Bell)

For those participating in the Ironman North American Championship Texas in The Woodlands Saturday, I wish we could speed the front up six hours, but alas it waits until Saturday morning. It will be a bit challenging, with temperatures starting the event in the mid to upper 60s, warming into the upper 70s by early afternoon. The precipitous drop in humidity expected behind the front probably won’t begin until early Saturday afternoon. Not the worst we’ve seen around here in spring, but probably not ideal either.

Best of luck to anyone participating in the Ironman in The Woodlands Saturday!

In terms of rainfall, I don’t expect much. A narrow, broken line of showers and maybe a rogue rumble of thunder will be possible as the front moves through. This means some of you may get briefly rained on, others may not. No severe weather is expected. Temperatures will still peak around 80° or so in Houston on Saturday afternoon (cooler north, warmer south). You won’t notice much of a big change until mid to late Saturday afternoon when the refreshing air begins to pour in.

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by The Mole, a Jonathon Price novel.)

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Easter weekend looking mostly un-egg-citing

After a pretty nice and quiet Thursday, we head into Friday with similarly decent weather. We have a couple question marks this weekend, but I don’t think it will be anything to really mar the Easter weekend. But let’s hop to it.

Today

Again, no issues today. I expect it will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. Probably a lot of similarities to Thursday! High pressure is in control, but it is moving away, so onshore flow may get a little steadier late, which could lead to a shower or two in just a couple spots. More subtly, this will mean an increase in humidity very late today or tonight. But the bulk of Friday looks alright.

Saturday

The forecast gets a touch more challenging Saturday. A weak disturbance a few thousand feet up will pivot across the region, probably just east of Houston. This should be enough to set off scattered showers and storms, but also probably just east of Houston.

NAM model forecast shows a weak disturbance in Louisiana tomorrow that should keep most showers away from the Houston area. (Penn State)

So the bottom line on Saturday: It’ll be a bit more humid. It will also be a couple degrees warmer. While I can’t entirely rule out a shower or two in the area, odds favor most of us staying dry. The best chance for a scattered shower will be east of I-45 and probably as far east as Beaumont or Lake Charles. So if you’re headed to Hobbyfest or Buzzfest, it looks pretty good. The Houston Dash also kick off the season at BBVA Saturday afternoon. It looks great.

The weather for both the afternoon Dash match and the evening Dynamo match looks excellent!

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by The Mole, a Jonathon Price novel.)

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Galveston’s ridiculous run of warm temperature records continues

This past winter was definitely a warm one that set records in many spots across the country, but some of the most amazing warmth has come close to home—in Galveston.

For Texas and Louisiana, Winter 2016-17 was the warmest on record (back 122 years), but it was also near the top of the list in most of the eastern and central US. (NOAA)

 

For Texas and Louisiana as a whole, this winter ranked as the warmest on record (back to 1895). In fact, for most of the eastern half of the country, this was a top 5-10 warmest winter as well. For Houston, it edged out 1949-50 to be the warmest on record. For Galveston however, this winter was not the warmest on record. By 0.3°, that distinction still belongs to Winter 1889-90 (worth noting there are no weather records for that winter in Houston). But although the winter as a whole wasn’t a record, Galveston has been doing something arguably even more impressive.

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by The Mole, a Jonathon Price novel.)

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Sublime spring weather continues

We’ve had a number of really, really nice spring days in recent weeks. And expect us to get another one today. Let’s get to it.

Colorado State Hurricane Outlook

First, I want to just touch on a report released yesterday from the tropical weather research group at Colorado State University. The CSU team produces one of the most widely used and anticipated seasonal hurricane outlooks for the Atlantic. Their forecast for this year calls for below normal activity in the Atlantic basin.

They’re going with 11 storms, four hurricanes, and two major hurricanes for the 2017 season. Recall that last year saw 15 named storms, seven hurricanes, and four major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricanes. Last year’s CSU April forecast called for 12/5/2 in that order. This year will be challenging with risks of another El Nino developing and some uncertainty as to what the ocean temperature profiles in the Atlantic Ocean will look like during the peak of the season. We’ve been in an active period of Atlantic hurricanes since 1995, and there are questions as to how much longer that will last. They will monitor these variables and update their forecast in early June.

Klotzbach’s team also helps put together landfall probabilities by county. You can examine the details yourself, but in the interest of ease, they give a 3.7% probability of one or more named storms making landfall in Galveston County, compared to a 4.3% chance historically in any given year. Texas as a whole has a 38.2% chance using their methodology, compared to a climatological average of 43.3% that a named storm will make landfall. In a nutshell: Slightly lower than normal odds for a landfall than in an average season.

Use hurricane outlooks with caution

There’s a BIG caveat here. Remember, seasonal hurricane outlooks are primarily an academic exercise. Operationally and for most of you, they don’t matter. If we have two storms in the Atlantic all season and one is category 4 that plows into Galveston, it was a below normal season but an awfully bad one for a lot of people. They’ve become a curiosity we need to share, and the group at Colorado State does really good and ultimately important research. But you should ignore this forecast and go ahead and think about preparing for hurricane season anyway. 

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by The Mole, a Jonathon Price novel.)

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