No one complained to us that we skipped last week’s tropics post. Hopefully no one complains that this week’s is rather short!

Tropical outlook in a sentence

There are no signs of any organized systems in the Atlantic Basin over the next week to ten days, but we do expect our slumber to gradually end come August.

2022 as of today: Does the quiet start mean anything?

Much like last July, this July has been quite quiet. We managed to get Colin briefly back on July 2-3, and since then there’s been nothing. Last year we had made it to E by now. In 2020, we were on F. We remain at 2.8 accumulated cyclone energy units to date. The normal is just over 6 by this point. For the season, we typically see above 120, so we have a long, long road ahead.

Just to refresh: ACE is an equation that tallies how long a storm maintains an intensity. It’s then accumulated, storm by storm, over the course of the season. Most recent seasons have been active to very active. While it’s nice that 2022 is beginning below average, it’s also not exactly meaningful. From an ACE point of view, 95 percent of the season is yet to come. The big ramp in activity typically begins around August 15th, so we’re 2 to 3 weeks away from normally having a bit more to discuss.

What’s happening now?

When I say not much is happening in the tropics, I really do mean that. It’s very, very quiet. We’ll occasionally get a robust wave off Africa, but it typically either runs into significant dry air and dust or wind shear and dissipates.

While we’ve had some Saharan dust over Houston lately, we may see more next week. There’s a lot of dust out there, so we just need a brief window to open to sneak some more of that into the Gulf.

In addition, wind shear in the Caribbean is strong and projected to stay that way over the next week or so. Anything trying to get here will struggle. And our recent spate of hot weather is basically being caused by high pressure sealing Texas off from any Gulf mischief. The longer that continues, the worse the drought but the less risk of hurricanes. Mostly.

We see no real meaningful sign of change for the time being, so let’s continue to enjoy the calm, and use this time to ensure we’re prepared in case things do change later in August or September.

Good morning. There’s not much good to say about our weather for the next several days, outside of the fact that at least we won’t see flooding or the winds howling. However, after three or four really hot days of triple-digit temperatures, I do think we’ll see a slight downturn in highs, and an uptick in rain chances. The effect is likely to be subtle, but any relief is better than no relief, right?

Tuesday

Monday’s high temperature reached 100 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport, and we can probably expect today to be a carbon copy with mostly sunny skies. Winds will be out of the south, at 10 mph or so, with gusts up to 15 or 20 mph. Lows tonight probably won’t drop below 80 degrees for most of the region.

Wednesday and Thursday

It looks like the heat will peak on these days, with highs ranging from 100 to the low 100s for much of the area away from the coast. Expect sunny skies and southern winds. You should know the drill by now.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

It’s still going to be hot, but highs at some point should start to drop back into the upper 90s. We’ll also see a somewhat more disturbed atmosphere that should allow for the development of at least some isolated showers and thunderstorms. Expect mostly sunny skies.

Next week

Overall, the pattern won’t change a whole lot. But I think we’ll see highs in the mid- to upper-90s, instead of around 100 degrees. And rain chances will continue to be non-zero, but at this point it’s difficult to say whether we’re talking about 10 to 20 percent chances each day, or the more hopeful 30 to 40 percent.

Good morning. I wanted nothing more than to start this week by writing a hopeful post about Houston’s forthcoming weather—to say something about cooler weather ahead, more moderate nights, or a few days of steady rainfall and cloudy days. Alas, this is a reality-based site, and I’m sorry to say the rest of July looks very sunny, very hot, and mostly rain free.

Before jumping into the forecast, dreadful though it may be, I wanted to provide a situational update on our 100 degree days this year. These are officially recorded at Bush Intercontinental Airport, which is the city’s official monitoring station. Through Sunday, the city has now recorded 14 such days, which places this year second only to 1980 in terms of accumulation through July 17. Matt has been tracking these dates, and prepared the line chart below to show how this year (black line) compares to to most summers. Of note are years 1980 (Blue) and 2011 (pink).

Monday

High pressure is back, and it will be the dominant factor in our weather for the week ahead. This means mostly sunny skies for today, with highs near or above 100 degrees for inland areas, with highs in the low- to mid-90s near the coast. Winds will be light, out of the south or southwest at 5 to 10 mph. Lows will be sultry, only dropping to about 80 degrees in Houston. Rain chances are 10 percent or less, due to a capping inversion that is helping to prevent air at the surface from rising.

Tuesday

Rinse and repeat, although there will be precious little rinsing due to a lack of rain.

Wednesday and Thursday

Both of these days will be sunny, and perhaps a degree or two warmer as the high really takes hold.

Friday

Some sort of weak disturbance may attempt to pass over the area toward the end of the week, and this could bump up our rain chances to about 20 or possibly even 30 percent. It ain’t much, but it’s probably the best we’ll see this week.

Saturday and Sunday

These should be mostly sunny days, with highs of around 100 degrees. Rain chances at this point don’t look to be zero, but they are less than 20 percent.

Next week

If you’re looking to the extended forecast with some hope of a pattern change, I would say two things. First of all, congratulations on being an optimist. The worlds needs more of you. The second thing I would say is to remind you that August begins in 13 days.

A number of folks across the area saw rain yesterday, which was great.

We need what we can get right now, coming off our hottest 5 consecutive days on record Saturday-Wednesday. I’ve seen folks say that 1980 and 2011 were worse. By July 14th of those years, we had amassed 20 100° days in 1980 and 11 in 2011. So far in 2022, we’ve managed 13 of them. So yes, 1980 was hotter — during the day. At night is where things have changed. 1980 averaged 75.6 degrees for July nighttime lows. So far this month, we’re averaging 78.1 degrees for nighttime lows. As such, this July is on pace to be our hottest. Warmer nighttime lows are a health hazard, extending the heat.

Between 2010 and this year, Houston has set or tied almost 150 daily records for warm nighttime lows, sometimes multiple times over the period. Galveston has set or tied 189 of them. A frequently warmer than normal Gulf (including this year as shown above), climate change, and land-use change (urban sprawl) are all contributing factors to making heat waves somewhat worse than they were in the past. So this isn’t the periodic hot summer. It’s the slightly more frequent hot summer with an extra spoonful of sprinkles on top. We see no real end in sight to our current hot weather.

Drought has worsened as well.

The entire Houston area is officially in drought. The southern half of the area remains in extreme drought, the second worst category, and this week saw the addition of some exceptional drought, the worst category, west of Houston. Notably in 2011 the entire area was in exceptional drought at this point. With August still ahead of us, I am not especially thrilled with where we presently stand.

Friday

After yesterday saw some rain, today should see some more. We are starting with just a couple showers here and there, mainly south of I-10. Today’s focus should be south of Houston. That isn’t to say that if you live north of I-10 you won’t see anything, but the odds are highest to the south, the part of our area most in need right now. Look for coverage of storms, especially south of the city to become more numerous as the afternoon develops. Locally heavy rain is possible today, perhaps up to 2 or 3 inches in the most persistent storms, so do keep an eye out for localized, brief street flooding in those areas hit hardest.

With rain showers and some clouds, look for temperatures ranging from the upper-80s to mid-90s today.

Weekend

Look for rain chances to fall back a good bit to a requisite 10 to maybe 20 percent chance on Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures, while hot, should stay sub-100 for most of us. I would expect lows in the 70s to near 80 and highs in the upper-90s both days.

Next week

We could see a slight uptick in shower chances on Monday, but I wouldn’t get my hopes up. Otherwise, high pressure will begin to re-flex itself overhead. This means heat, humidity, and just minor rain chances on any given day. Look for 100s to populate the forecast again, along with frequent heat advisories.

Overnight lows will bounce between the upper-70s and low-80s. In other words, more of the same. There’s no meaningful sign of change to this pattern at this time.

Tropics

If you want good news, the tropics are quiet right now, and they look to stay that way for awhile. We’ll update things again next Tuesday. It’s tempting to wish for a tropical storm or hurricane to break our misery, but this feels very much like a case of be careful what you wish for. Here’s hoping however things go over the next few months, they go gently.