Eye on the Tropics: Quiet for a bit

After a frenetic start to the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, we’re settling down into a bit of a quiet period, and I am sure no one is complaining. Last week saw Elsa, which was the earliest “E” storm on record. We’ve already fallen off 2020’s insane pace however, as Fay formed on July 9th last year. Gonzalo did not form until the 22nd of July, indicating that we had a bit of a lull last year too.

Tropical outlook in a sentence

The next 7 to 10 days are not currently expected to produce any organized tropical systems of note anywhere in the Atlantic Basin.

So what’s next?

I thought I would keep this post fairly brief this week. Looking at satellite across the Atlantic, there just isn’t much happening right now.

The Atlantic basin has a couple minor tropical waves but nothing that will significantly develop. (College of DuPage)

The National Hurricane Center is tagging that one system off the coast of New Jersey for a 10 percent chance of development, but, yeah. Moving on.

In addition to a lack of any beefy tropical waves, the Atlantic basin is choked in dust at the moment. Dust doesn’t prevent tropical systems from forming, but it does indicate the presence of drier air, which usually inhibits storms.

Anywhere you see yellow, orange, or red color, it indicates dust or dry air. The Atlantic is full of it. (University of Wisconsin)

We are basically in peak dust season now, as is typical, so this is not terribly surprising.

On top of all that, if you look out in fantasyland on the GFS or European models and ensembles, you can’t even scrounge up some make-believe activity. Even the usually turbocharged Canadian ensemble only has one or two members showing minimal systems in the Atlantic over the next 2 weeks. So it’s quiet, and model agreement is strong for that. Without going into too much detail here, this is true for good reason: The background environment over the Gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic is not favorable for tropical development right now or over the next 10-plus days. What is happening in the background is helping to “suppress” thunderstorm development a bit. That doesn’t mean something can’t spin up, but the overall base state of things right now is hostile toward tropical systems, which is good news for all of us.

This may change in the final days of July and first few days of August, so I do expect we’ll have something to talk about when you see this post on July 27th (due to schedules we won’t be posting next Tuesday). But there is no sign of anything right now.

Where activity is busy is in the Eastern Pacific. There are two areas of high probability development over the next 5 days, and there may be more to follow beyond that.

While the Atlantic is quiet, there will likely be a handful of substantial systems in the East Pacific. None are a threat to land for now, and none are expected to reach Hawaii at this time. (Weathernerds.org)

Everything is currently projected to head out into the open ocean, away from Mexico, and not reach Hawaii so that is also good news.

That’ll do it for this week. Hopefully our next tropical post is equally quiet!

After Monday’s reprieve, summer-like weather returns

It would be wrong to say Monday’s weather in Houston was pleasant, but after a weak surface front moved through the region Monday evening was certainly “July nice.” The change was subtle, but dewpoints dropped a few degrees, with temperatures following suit. The result was just about as nice an evening in July as you’re ever likely to experience. It won’t last—the boundary is already washing away—but it’s also reminder that fall is only a couple of months away.

Chart showing a drop in temperatures and dewpoints on Monday afternoon at Bush IAH. (NWS)

Tuesday

The passage of the front on Monday also spurred scattered, but in some cases fairly strong storms along and north of Interstate 10. Today the focus should shift closer to the coast, with some isolated to scattered showers popping up during the afternoon and early evening hours along with the sea breeze. (They will not be as intense as Monday). Otherwise, we should see mostly sunny skies today, with highs in the lower 90s, and winds shifting to come from the southeast.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

As we get deeper into the week rain chances may improve a little bit on Wednesday and Thursday. Why? Because atmospheric moisture levels should rise a little, and our region won’t be directly under the influence of high pressure. I don’t think overall rainfall accumulations will be high, but I think you’ll have about a 40 percent chance or so of seeing a shower on each of these days, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will be in the low 90s, with a mix of sunshine and clouds.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Friday night. (Weather Bell)

Saturday and Sunday

At this point, although the forecast remains subject to change, the weekend looks reasonably nice for Houston. I think we’ll see partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs generally in the low 90s. With the humidity, of course, it will still feel plenty hot. Both days will be subject to the potential for some passing showers and thunderstorms, but I’d peg overall chances at about 30 percent each day. So yeah, we’re cautiously optimistic about outdoor activities this weekend.

Next week

Rain chances may begin to increase by Monday or Tuesday of next week as our atmosphere turns a little more unsettled, but I don’t think we’re looking at anything too crazy in terms of accumulations. Matt will have more for you on the tropics in a post later today, and the news on that front remains positive.

Pretty nice weather—for July—comes to Houston this week

Good morning. Although rain chances will never be too far away this week, neither will we have rain every day. Instead, we’ll see a mix of sunshine and clouds, with highs generally in the low 90s. When you combine this with a lack of tropical activity, I count that as a “win” for Houston’s weather in mid-July when things can sometimes get nasty hot or floody.

Monday

With that said, some storms will be possible today, especially north of Interstate 10 as a slow moving line of showers sags southward. Most modeling guidance suggests these storms will weaken as they move into Liberty and Montgomery counties, and progress toward Houston this morning. Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies with highs in the low 90s with light winds. Lows tonight should be in the mid- to upper-70s for most areas, with rain chances falling back to zero.

Storms north of Houston should sag south today, and weaken. (RadarScope)

Tuesday and Wednesday

These will be a pair of mostly sunny days for Houston, with highs generally in the low 90s. Winds will be relatively light at the surface, but a southeasterly flow in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will ensure there is plenty of moisture. This means that we may seem scattered showers during the afternoon hours, triggered by the sea breeze moving inland from the Gulf of Mexico. Any developing storms should be fairly short lived.

Thursday and Friday

For now I expect the overall pattern of days in the low 90s to continue, with a smattering of afternoon showers. There are some hints in the models that we may see some slightly better storm chances on Friday afternoon and evening, but this is not something I feel overly confident in predicting, so we’ll watch it for you.

Cooler than normal temperatures for the second half of July? We’ll take it. (Pivotal Weather)

Saturday and Sunday

We’ll carry highs in the low to mid-90s over into the weekend, with more afternoon shower chances due to the sea breeze. The weekend forecast is subject to change, of course, but right now it should bring fairly typical summertime weather to Houston. By now you know the drill for what that means—heat, humidity, and mosquitoes.

Storms winding down over the Houston metro area

Hi all, just a quick update to say that this morning’s storms are winding down over the Houston metro area as anticipated. Although we still expect intermittent moderate to heavy rainfall throughout the early afternoon hours, the general trend toward less coverage and less intense rainfall rates should continue. Area roadways and bayous are generally handling this precipitation just fine. Even better: rain chances will fall back significantly this evening and through the weekend.

Houston’s radar signature at 10:14am CT shows weakening storms over Houston. (RadarScope)

Unfortunately the same cannot be said right now for the Coastal Bend area, from Rockport to Matagorda Bay, where heavy rains are continuing this morning and may do so for the next several hours. But that area, too, should finally see a reprieve later this afternoon and evening as a low pressure system in South Texas continues to move away from the region.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and enjoy the sunshine when it returns.