Record cold worsens tonight, but the sun is helping — a little

First off, our sympathies are with what we assume are large numbers of our readership without power today. We hope you get it restored soon, but the news has not exactly been great today.

But here is some relatively good news to get you started. As of this writing, both Bush and Hobby Airports are up to 22 degrees. With the sun out, we might be able to squeeze another couple degrees out of things today. That sun is also helping to melt some of the snow and ice on area roadways.

While those roads are still difficult to impossible to traverse, we may restore a little road functionality today. However, after sunset and with temps plunging again tonight, any slush that is leftover on area roads (particularly on side streets in Houston and various area subdivisions) will refreeze into solid ice, making travel tonight virtually impossible, possibly even worse than this morning.

One other safety reminder: If area retention ponds or lakes in subdivisions begin to freeze over, while it will look neat, it will be exceptionally dangerous to attempt to walk on. Simply put: Admire from afar, and please make sure children stay away from them.

Our morning low at both Bush and Hobby was 17 degrees, which is the coldest we’ve registered since the December 1989 cold blast. And we may (probably) dip below that before midnight.

We’re also seeing a true rarity in Southeast Texas: Lake effect flurries and clouds.

Lake effect clouds, flurries, and widespread snowpack dominate the satellite picture over Texas today, a true rarity. (Weathernerds.org)

Two distinct plumes are coming off Lake Livingston and Lake Sam Rayburn this afternoon and even Lake Conroe if you squint. You can also see a plume of “bay effect” clouds coming out of Galveston Bay and into the Gulf. This is why even with the sun out, it may have felt like you were living in a snow globe this morning.

Tonight

So how cold will it get tonight? Clear skies, diminishing winds, and a fresh layer of snow is a recipe for what we call “ideal radiational cooling.” Reliable model guidance tonight ranges from 10 to 17 degrees at IAH/Bush, and in an ideal radiational cooling situation like this, typically you’d subtract a couple more off that.

Record and perhaps all-time record challenging cold is likely tonight. (Weather Bell)

Add in that the models have generally been underdoing the intensity of the cold, and you have a forecast map like the one above from the National Weather Service. There may be some chance that we fall short of these numbers, but I would not be betting on that, and most of the area should expect lows of 5 to 15 degrees, coldest northwest, warmest southeast. Houston’s all-time record of 5° from 1930 is probably safe, but not by much and with little room for error. Either way, tonight promises to be a once in a generation type cold that will unfortunately cause a lot of damage to infrastructure, pipes, etc. We wish our readers the best.

Tuesday and beyond

Not much has changed in terms of what to expect the next couple days. More sunshine tomorrow should help further melt snow and ice on roads and most areas south of I-10 should get above freezing. North of I-10 is another matter, which plays into Wednesday’s outcome. We will continue to be honest that there is still a lot of uncertainty as to how much cold air will remain locked in over the area. Gulf air and onshore flow doesn’t typically have to compete with a snowpack here, so it creates a difficult forecast. What I think we can say for Houston: Most of the metro area should eventually see plain rain on Wednesday, with temperatures above freezing. Based on modeling, we are growing concerned about a very serious ice storm north of about Conroe up to just south of Dallas, but details will likely still be elusive until tomorrow.

With Eric still powerless, I’ll have one final brief update for you once more this around 8:30 or 9 PM. Stay safe, and try to stay warm everyone.

Widespread power outages on Houston’s coldest day in decades

Like many of you, my home in League City has been without power since about 2 a.m. this morning. The power went out just as the winds came up and temperatures really began to plunge across the Houston area.

Before the winter storm impacted the region, officials with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) said there would need to be rolling blackouts that would last 15 to 45 minutes. However, what is happening across much of the Houston area is more significant than that, or power lines affected by ice.

“These are not rolling blackouts. We are dealing with systemwide power outages across the state,” Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner tweeted shortly after 8 a.m. on Monday morning.

ERCOT is responsible for managing the flow of power across the state. Companies such as CenterPoint are responsible for maintaining the “lines and poles” that deliver electricity to your home. That CenterPoint’s website is experiencing technical problems this morning is not helping to clarify the situation.

One local public official told me that ERCOT has had to take several power generating plants offline, presumably due to the extremely cold weather. This is unfortunate, given that these conditions have been forecast to occur for almost a week now.

I don’t have confidence in any time frame for when power might be restored to the metro Houston area. It’s really outside my area of expertise. But this is a bad situation when Houston is seeing high temperatures around 20 degrees today, and will be much colder tonight, and we can’t be certain when the heat will come back on.

We’ll have a weather update by around 1 p.m. this afternoon.

 

Bitter cold weather arrives in Houston, with roads iced over

Good morning. Winter Fest 2021 has arrived in Houston, complete with frigid temperatures, snow, sleet, freezing rain, howling winds, and power outages. It is everything we expected and dreaded.

An extremely cold air mass has descended upon the area and dropped temperatures to 20 degrees or below for nearly everywhere, including the coast. With the wind chill, it feels like 0 degrees for inland areas and 5 to 10 degrees elsewhere. Wintry precipitation overnight, a combination of primarily snow and sleet, has covered most area roadways with a sheen of ice. Travel today is a bad idea.

Temperatures across Texas at 4am CT on Monday. (Pivotal Weather)

Monday

High resolution models show precipitation ending from west to east this morning, and likely moving east of the Houston metro area by around 9am. This will not preclude the possibility of some snow flurries redeveloping later this afternoon. Unfortunately, temperatures are unlikely to recover much today, with highs perhaps in the low to mid-20s across the region. The ice on roadways is not going anywhere, any time soon.

We still expect an extremely cold night across Houston, with temperatures likely ranging from about 5 degrees over inland areas to around 20 degrees along the immediate coast. These will be the region’s coldest temperatures since at least 1989, and for some areas possibly much longer than that.

Tuesday

After a bitterly cold start to the day, sunshine will help lead to modest warming as winds shift to come from the east. By Tuesday evening, we anticipate that temperatures will climb above freezing for areas south of Interstate 10. Temperatures on Tuesday night really will not fall much as the onshore flow kicks in.

Wednesday

Sunshine will go away by Wednesday, as moisture levels rise in the atmosphere and the next front approaches. Most of the metro area should reach highs in the upper 30s to low 40s on Wednesday (the coast will be warmer still), although areas north of Conroe may remain stubbornly near freezing. As precipitation chances increase on Wednesday, it appears that most of the area will see rain, but we have concerns about freezing rain in Montgomery County, and points north, both on Wednesday morning and any lingering showers Wednesday night.

High temperatures on Wednesday should bring a (brief) end to the freeze for most areas. (Pivotal Weather)

Thursday

Another very cold day, with most of the region likely only reaching a few degrees above freezing. However, we think this probably will be warm enough to melt any ice on the roads by mid-morning or so in the metro area, with some caveats about the potential for lingering ice near and north of Conroe. Much of the area will see a hard freeze on Thursday night, with lows dropping into the 20s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

As high pressure settles in we’ll finally a see a definitive warming trend heading into the weekend, with highs in the 40s on Friday, and reaching the 60s for most areas by Saturday.

Power outages

There are two sets of power outages this morning. One is due to ice accreting on power lines, and this is affecting about 5 percent of homes in the Houston area. In addition to this, there have been rolling blackouts ordered ERCOT across the entire state that should last about 15 to 45 minutes at any one location.

Major winter storm underway in the Houston area this afternoon

Good afternoon everyone. I’ve been watching the models and observations all day, and we look to continue walking a fine line between ice, an even mix of ice, sleet, and snow, and a bigger snowstorm in the Houston area. Not a whole lot has changed from Eric’s detailed morning post, but let’s freshen up the forecast a bit based on what we’re seeing right now.

Now

As of 4PM, here is a map of where temperatures are currently below freezing (locations above freezing not shown).

Below freezing temperatures are creeping south and east into the Houston area. Icing will commence soon on many area roadways. (NOAA)

So, if we roughly overlay that freezing line on radar, you can see where the risk of ice is at the moment I am writing this.

Areas north of I-10 and west of US-59 are at risk for icing as of 4 PM Sunday. This will worsen over the next few hours. (RadarScope)

Basically anywhere along and west of US-59 and north of I-10 is at risk for icing on roadways as of now and worsening over the next 2-3 hours.

Through Midnight

Over the next few hours, watch for rain, freezing rain, and freezing drizzle to overspread most of the region. Temps will continue to glacially drop off slowly, eventually putting everywhere but probably the immediate coast below 32° by midnight. Ice accumulation should not be significant in terms of weighing down trees and power lines this evening, but you’ll begin to notice a glaze on most outdoor surfaces, and travel will become hazardous to impossible across the entire region.

Midnight to 7 AM Monday

Two things will happen after midnight: Colder air will speed up its arrival in the area and the precipitation should become more organized and heavier. Our forecast confidence begins to drop off here, but theoretically, this should mean that freezing rain will transition more to sleet and eventually snow. That transition will take place from northwest to southeast and where the precipitation falls heaviest.

The HRRR model forecast of precipitation at 4 AM shows freezing rain and sleet transitioning to sleet and snow across the region. This is just one of several possibilities for how tonight may unfold. (Weather Bell)

This is when we will probably start seeing and hearing reports of heavy sleet and even heavy snow in parts of the area. I’ll be honest, as a Northeast native, what is being depicted on some of the models is the potential for bonafide, real deal heavy snow and/or sleet, particularly north and west of Houston (think far NW Harris County, Montgomery County, College Station, Huntsville), but perhaps in the city or even some places east of the city too. We’re talking potential of 1-2″ per hour snow rates if we flip over. If the warm layer a couple thousand feet up holds, then heavy sleet will the story, and we’ll see 1 to 2 inches total of “cement” on roads and surfaces.

Quick note and reminder: If we end up with sleet or sleet/snow accumulation and you have to shovel or clear surfaces, please take it slow and take it easy. There is a known link between shoveling snow/sleet and heart attack risks, to the point where hospitals up north often staff up for that very reason ahead of storms.

7 AM to Noon Monday

Precipitation should begin to wind down from west to east before Noon on Monday. Most places will end as a period of snow or flurries.

When all is said and done, expect 1-3″ of snow, more northwest, less southeast. Expect a tenth to a quarter inch of ice, more southeast, less northwest. Higher amounts are possible in either case.

Monday afternoon

Despite the precip ending, conditions won’t improve much. It’ll remain quite cold and any chance of sunshine will probably hold off til late day or Tuesday. Eric will update you on that chance in the morning. Either way, we won’t be getting above freezing on Monday, so whatever falls is going to stay in place through the day and into Monday night.

Monday night/Tuesday morning.

No big changes to the forecast for Monday night and Tuesday morning. It will be cold, likely damaging cold. Please make sure you’ve finalized all preps for pipes and plants by now, and look out for pets and neighbors.

Tuesday morning low temperatures are mostly unchanged from prior forecasts and still likely to challenge records and perhaps some all-time records as well. (NOAA via Weather Bell)

There’s still a tad bit of uncertainty on exactly how cold we get, contingent on how many clouds remain, how much snow falls vs. sleet/ice, and how windy it is. But either way, a damaging, destructive, probably historic freeze is on the way Tuesday morning.

Tuesday afternoon and beyond

Look for slowly rising temperatures Tuesday, probably close to freezing from I-10 south and just shy of it north of there. We should have sunshine, and that will allow for some melting to occur, but there’s a chance most roads remain sloppy to impassable most of Tuesday too.

And then beyond Tuesday, I don’t want to speculate too much still, but it does look like Wednesday’s storm will be a mess for northern fringes of the area. The potential exists for a serious ice storm north of Houston (probably plain rain in most of the Houston metro itself). Coastal locations may even make a run at 50+ degrees on Wednesday. Between storm track issues and potential snowpack issues (keeping temperatures cold), there is a lot we don’t know about Wednesday. Look for an update by about 5:30 in the morning from Eric.